The Elite Eight field is set.
Who will advance to this year’s Men’s Basketball Final Four, which is April 6-8 at State Farm Stadium in Phoenix?
No. 1 UConn continues its rampage through the East Region in its quest for back-to-back national championships, but they will have considerable competition from No. 3 Illinois. That could be the best matchup of the weekend if the Illini are up to the task.
No. 4 Alabama takes on No. 6 Clemson in a surprising West Region final. Both schools are looking for their first Final Four appearance, and no, this isn’t football season.
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No. 4 Duke meets No. 11 NC State in an all-ACC South Region final. The Blue Devils knocked No. 1 Houston out in a 54-51 upset, and the Wolfpack continued their improbable run with a 67-58 victory against No. 2 Marquette.
No. 1 Purdue takes on No. 2 Tennessee in the only matchup that features a No. 1 vs. No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region final. It's a rematch of their Maui Invitational matchup on Nov. 21 between two schools trying to make their first Final Four appearance since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
We finished 39-17 S/U and 29-27 ATS through the first three rounds of the tournament. Here are our predictions for the Elite Eight games. Odds according to BetMGM.com.
March Madness picks, predictions for Elite Eight
Saturday, March 30
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No. 1 UConn (-8.5) vs. No. 3 Illinois (East)
UConn has won its first three tournament games by an average of 28.7 points per game. How will they respond to an actual game? Illinois continues to play at a high level, and Terrence Shannon Jr. is averaging 31.2 points per game since the Big Ten tournament. Coleman Hawkins and Marcus Domask are going to have to back up that scoring, and Illinois must keep it close on the boards. The Illini have a seven-game win streak, and Ohio State is the only team that won the rebounding battle in a tight 77-74 game. UConn continues to play with balance with its starting five, and the Huskies have shot 50.7% from the floor in the tournament. Tristen Newton is an all-around point guard with 16.7 points and 7.3 assists in the tournament. Alex Karaban is 4 of 15 from 3-point range in the tournament – a factor to watch. Donovan Klingan, however, is averaging 13.3 points and 10 rebounds. Illinois is 4-3 S/U as an underdog this season with an 83-78 loss to Purdue and 86-79 loss to Tennessee. UConn is 10-2 S/U and 9-3 ATS when favored by less than nine points this season. These teams have not met since 1994. Shannon could change the dynamic with an all-time performance, but that still might be enough against this UConn team.
Pick: UConn 87, Illinois 78
DECOURCY: Coach K, Billy Donovan discuss UConn's quest to repeat
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No. 4 Alabama (-2.5) vs. No. 6 Clemson (West)
Clemson won the regular-season meeting 85-77 on Nov. 28. The Tigers continue to advance under Brad Brownell with a defense that has limited its three tournament opponents to 14 of 75 shooting – which is 18.7% – from 3-point range. Clemson is shooting 33% from 3-point range, and they have the right mix of inside-outside play between forwards P.J. Schieffelin and guards Chase Hunter and Joseph Girard III. Alabama isn’t going to slow down under coach Nate Oats – even against a zone defense. Forward Grant Nelson is coming off a 24-point, 12-rebound performance against North Carolina and will test the Clemson front line with his length. Latrell Wrightsell (head) might return for this game — and Clemson is going to have slow down guard Mark Sears – whose ability to drive the lane and either score or create is a problem. Sears is shooting 53.3% from the field and 84.2% from the free-throw line in the tournament. The magic number is 78 points. Clemson is 2-4 S/U when they allow that point total. Alabama is 3-4 S/U when they score 78 points or less. We’ve picked against the Tigers in every round so far. What’s one more?
Pick: Alabama 85, Clemson 80
Sunday, March 31
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No. 1 Purdue (-3.5) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (Midwest)
It's now-or-never time for Purdue – which is looking for its first Final Four appearance since 1980. Zach Edey averages 26.7 points and 16.3 rebounds in the tournament so far – and the Boilermakers are shooting 43.3% from 3-point range as a team in the tournament. That's a formula that works – and it worked in a 71-67 victory against Tennessee in the Maui Invitational on Nov. 21. Dalton Knecht had 16 points in that game – and no other Volunteers player hit double digits. This is a different team – and the emergence of 6-11 center Jonas Aidoo will be key in the matchup with Edey. Tennessee turned up the defense in the second half of the Sweet 16 matchup against Creighton, and this is the chance for Rick Barnes to break through to the Final Four. The Volunteers are in an underdog role, where they are 2-3 S/U and 2-3 ATS this season. Matt Painter has the same opportunity as Barnes, and if Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Lance Jones keep knocking shot down shots around Edey, then that Final Four drought will end.
Pick: Purdue 79, Tennessee 73
MORE: Purdue on verge of ending cruel Final Four drought
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No. 4 Duke (-6.5) vs. No. 11 NC State (South)
Duke beat NC State in the regular-season matchup 79-64 on March 4 before losing 74-69 in the ACC quarterfinals March 14. The Blue Devils are the favorites in this in-state matchup, however, and forward Kyle Filipowski is the player to watch. He had 28 points and 14 rebounds in the last matchup. Duke has five players that average double figures, and the guard play in the tournament has been a nice mix of fearlessness from freshman Jared McCain and experience from senior Jeremy Roach. NC State continues to ride the wave of an improbable run that started with five wins in five days at the ACC Tournament. The Wolfpack are allowing 66 ppg. in the tournament, and opposing teams are shooting 23.8% from 3–point range. DJ Horne and 6-9 forward DJ Burns Jr. have been the catalyst of the run, and there is nothing to lose at this point. The Wolfpack are 11-6-1 ATS as an underdog – and that includes six straight covers in that situation. Duke, however, will be more than happy to play the role of villain in getting second-year coach Jon Scheyer to his first Final Four.
Pick: Duke 78, NC State 72
MORE: NC State channeling the magic of Jim Valvano's 1983 run
