March Madness odds 2024: Projecting the teams with best chances to make each round, win NCAA Tournament

The march has arrived.

There have been 68 teams chosen to compete in the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament. Sixty-eight teams that on Sunday all have lofty aspirations of being the one with the confetti raining down as "One Shining Moment" plays in the background. 

This is the chance where everyone gets to try and be a basketball expert. Given the improbability of picking a perfect bracket, it's safe to say everyone has about the same chances of getting one all correct. But The Sporting News is here to help sort through some of the madness.

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TSN is rolling out its projection model that evaluates the field and determines which teams are the most likely to come out of each matchup. The model is based on composite ratings from Sports-Reference's SRS ratings, Pomeroy, ESPN BPI and Massey Ratings. The model then runs a Monte Carlo simulation of the tournament 20,000 times and records the outcomes for each result.

All odds listed are from BetMGM.

Here is a look at the current odds for the entire 2024 March Madness bracket, as well as what The Sporting News' model says about the field.

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March Madness odds 2024

The reigning champion reigns supreme. Well, at least in odds according to BetMGM.

Connecticut enters as the favorite to win it all, with fellow No. 1 seeds Purdue and Houston not far behind.

Region	Team	Seed	Odds
East	Connecticut	1	+350
South	Houston	1	+600
Midwest	Houston	1	+650
West	Arizona	2	+1100
West	North Carolina	1	+1300

Here's a look at the teams with the best odds for each seed in the tournament:

Seed	Region	Team	Odds
1	East	Connecticut	+350
2	West	Arizona	+1100
3	South/Midwest	Kentucky/Creighton	+2500
4	East	Auburn	+1700
5	Midwest	Gonzaga	+6000
6	East	BYU	+6600
7	South	Florida	+6000
8	East	Florida Atlantic	+10000
9	West	Michigan State	+10000
10	South/West	Colorado/Nevada	+15000
11	West	New Mexico	+12500
12	South	Grand Canyon	+35000
13	East	Yale	+50000
14	East/Midwest/South	Morehead State/Akron/Oakland	+100000
15	West/South	Long Beach State/Western Kentucky	+100000
16	All	All	+200000

The beasts are in the East. Of the 16 seeds, seven (including ties) are coming from the East. The South also has seven, though five of those come in double-digit seeds while three of the top six seeds are from the East.

Like BetMGM, the model sees the three non-West No. 1 seeds as the teams to beat, though it has Houston as the title favorite over Connecticut. The model is considerably down on North Carolina, which ranks eighth overall in national championship odds, trailing three No. 1 seeds, three No. 2 seeds and a No. 4 seed.

Region	Team	Seed	Title Win Percent	Implied Odds
South	Houston	1	17.5%	+472
East	Connecticut	1	13.5%	+643
Midwest	Purdue	1	13%	+672
West	Arizona	2	7.1%	+1304
East	Iowa State	2	5.9%	+1599

The model is fairly high on Iowa State relative to BetMGM, which has the Cyclones as having the eighth-highest title odds. Otherwise, the top four are the same, just a bit reshuffled.

EXPERT PICKS: DeCourcy (UConn) | Bender (UConn) | Iyer (UConn) | Yanchulis (South Carolina women)

NCAA Tournament odds to advance by region

Here is a look at the odds for each team to advance past each region, as well as the projected run for each team based on The Sporting News' model.

It should be noted teams in the play-in or facing play-in teams will have their odds and model projections updated once the games are concluded. Odds for teams to reach the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight will be updated as they are released, as will moneyline odds for each matchup.

East

It's going to be a challenge for everyone in the East in the same region as No. 1 Connecticut. If anyone is going to challenge the Huskies, it appears the books are saying No. 4 Auburn or No. 2 Iowa State.

Seed	Team	Round of 32	Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Title winner
1	Connecticut	-10000	-650	-175	-110	+350
2	Iowa State	-2500	-300	+120	+425	+1800
3	Illinois	-800	-145	+250	+650	+3000
4	Auburn	-1000	-250	+275	+375	+1700
5	San Diego State	-275	+250	+900	+2000	+10000
6	BYU	-550	+150	+450	+1600	+6600
7	Washington State	+100	+425	+1000	+3000	+15000
8	Florida Atlantic	-155	+750	+1400	+2000	+10000
9	Northwestern	+125	+800	+1800	+5000	+25000
10	Drake	-120	+575	+1400	+5000	+25000
11	Duquesne	+400	+900	+4000	+10000	+50000
12	UAB	+220	+2200	+6000	+12500	+75000
13	Yale	+625	+1000	+5000	+10000	+50000
14	Morehead State	+550	+1800	+8000	+20000	+100000
15	South Dakota State	+1100	+3000	+20000	+40000	+200000
16	Stetson	+2000	+8000	+20000	+40000	+200000

Though Auburn and Iowa State are identical in title odds, the Cyclones are significantly heavier favorites to win their matchup with No. 15 South Dakota State than Auburn is over No. 13 Yale. That would seem to indicate if the Tigers can avoid the first-round upset, they could be a tougher foe to stop.

The model likes Auburn as a title contender, even if acknowledging its tougher matchup against Yale in the first round. It also sees No. 6 BYU as a potential sleeper in this region.

There are no upsets projected over 50 percent in probability, but it's a near coin toss for both No. 9 Northwestern vs. No. 8 Florida Atlantic and No. 10 Drake vs. No. 7 Washington State.

Seed	Team	Round of 32	Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Championship	Title winner
1	Connecticut	96.6%	78.1%	53.6%	33.8%	22.3%	13.5%
2	Iowa State	94.2%	70.2%	43.8%	21.1%	12.8%	5.9%
3	Illinois	86.5%	52.0%	26.4%	11.4%	5.3%	2.4%
4	Auburn	83.0%	63.5%	30.2%	17.2%	10.6%	4.9%
5	San Diego State	73.5%	26.5%	7.3%	3.2%	1.0%	0.4%
6	BYU	77.1%	38.3%	18.0%	6.9%	3.2%	1.3%
7	Washington State	54.8%	17.0%	6.0%	2.1%	0.7%	0.1%
8	Florida Atlantic	51.1%	11.1%	4.1%	1.3%	0.5%	0.2%
9	Northwestern	48.9%	10.3%	3.3%	1.4%	0.3%	0.2%
10	Drake	45.2%	11.9%	3.9%	1.1%	0.2%	0.1%
11	Duquesne	22.9%	6.3%	1.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
12	UAB	26.5%	4.6%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Yale	17.0%	5.4%	0.9%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
14	Morehead State	13.5%	3.4%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	South Dakota State	5.8%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Stetson	3.4%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

REGION-BY-REGION GUIDES: South | Midwest | West | East

Midwest

Is anyone going to challenge Purdue? Tennessee might have the second-best title odds of any No. 2 seed, but the Boilermakers are still considerable favorites to win the Midwest region.

Seed	Team	Round of 32	Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Title winner
1	Purdue	TBD	-450	-150	+150	+650
2	Tennessee	-3000	-200	+135	+350	+1500
3	Creighton	-1100	-190	+200	+475	+2500
4	Kansas	-350	+100	+500	+800	+4000
5	Gonzaga	-300	+135	+450	+1000	+6000
6	South Carolina	-120	+375	+1200	+4000	+20000
7	Texas	-145	+300	+600	+2500	+12500
8	Utah State	+155	+775	+1600	+2500	+20000
9	TCU	-190	+575	+1000	+3000	+15000
10	Colorado State	+120	+600	+2000	+5000	+15000
11	Oregon	+100	+450	+1400	+5000	+25000
12	McNeese State	+230	+550	+2500	+8000	+35000
13	Samford	+260	+1150	+3500	+20000	+100000
14	Akron	+650	+1200	+5000	+20000	+100000
15	Saint Peter's	+1400	+8000	+20000	+40000	+200000
16	Grambling State/Montana State	TBD	TBD	+20000	+40000	+200000

There are a few upsets to see bookmakers picking in this region. That would be No. 11 Oregon topping No. 6 South Carolina and No. 9 TCU over No. 8 Utah State. But even No. 12 McNeese and No. 13 Samford are hardly listed as long-shots to win their first-round clashes against No. 5 Gonzaga and No. 4 Kansas, respectively.

The model likes Kansas and Gonzaga as still steady favorites, but it likes the Ducks to beat the Gamecocks and the Horned Frogs to top the Aggies, even if only slightly. 

It also has the Ducks as having the second-best title odds for any team seeded at No. 11 or higher, topped only by New Mexico in the West.

Seed	Team	Round of 32	Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Championship	Title winner
1	Purdue	98.1%	76.3%	56.2%	37.4%	22.6%	13.0%
2	Tennessee	94.8%	65.5%	40.9%	20.3%	10.3%	5.4%
3	Creighton	84.8%	57.6%	31.3%	14.5%	6.2%	2.8%
4	Kansas	72.8%	42.5%	13.6%	6.7%	2.6%	1.0%
5	Gonzaga	73.3%	41.6%	16.8%	7.5%	2.8%	1.3%
6	South Carolina	51.4%	19.8%	6.7%	1.8%	0.5%	0.2%
7	Texas	59.3%	22.6%	10.6%	3.8%	1.7%	0.4%
8	Utah State	43.6%	8.7%	3.8%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
9	TCU	56.4%	14.9%	6.4%	2.6%	0.7%	0.3%
10	Colorado State	40.7%	11.3%	4.2%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%
11	Oregon	48.6%	17.7%	5.5%	1.8%	0.4%	0.1%
12	McNeese State	26.7%	8.6%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
13	Samford	27.2%	7.3%	1.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Akron	15.2%	4.8%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Saint Peter's	5.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Montana State	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
16	Grambling State	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD

UPSET PICKS: 10 seeds | 11 seeds | 12 seeds | 13 seeds

South

Like the East, BetMGM currently has no underdogs projected to win the first round and lists the No. 1 seed as the clear favorite. Outside of Connecticut, no other No. 1 seed has better odds of advancing to the Final Four than Houston.

Seed	Team	Round of 32	Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Title winner
1	Houston	-5000	-400	-140	+125	+600
2	Marquette	-1600	-135	+200	+550	+2500
3	Kentucky	-1200	-145	+275	+550	+2500
4	Duke	-750	-115	+375	+550	+3000
5	Wisconsin	-250	+200	+700	+1800	+8000
6	Texas Tech	-225	+200	+500	+2200	+12500
7	Florida	TBD	+230	+500	+1500	+6000
8	Nebraska	-115	+550	+1000	+3000	+15000
9	Texas A&M	-105	+725	+1600	+4000	+20000
10	Boise State/Colorado	TBD	+1100/+625	+2000/TBD	+6000/+4000	+30000/+20000
11	NC State	+180	+500	+1400	+4000	+20000
12	James Madison	+195	+700	+2500	+8000	+35000
13	Vermont	+525	+1050	+5000	+20000	+100000
14	Oakland	+725	+1900	+8000	+20000	+100000
15	Western Kentucky	+850	+1900	+8000	+20000	+100000
16	Longwood	+1600	+8000	+20000	+40000	+200000

There might not be any upset picks, but No. 12 James Madison has intriguing upset potential at +165 odds over No. 5 Wisconsin. And No. 9 Texas A&M is only a slight underdog against No. 8 Nebraska. The No. 7 Gators have better odds to win the national championship than anyone below a No. 4 seed.

Oddsmakers might like the Gators, but the model does not. The model sees the Gators as being on potential upset watch in the first round whenever that matchup is determined, and as a result, they have lackluster championship odds.

Among potential sleepers in this region, it sees perennial title-contender No. 4 Duke as the team to watch, giving them the next-best chances of winning a championship and the third-best odds in the region to advance to the championship.

Seed	Team	Round of 32	Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Championship	Title winner
1	Houston	96.6%	79.2%	56.6%	44.3%	29.0%	17.5%
2	Marquette	88.2%	53.5%	33.0%	13.3%	5.6%	2.8%
3	Kentucky	83.4%	47.5%	22.7%	8.3%	3.7%	1.4%
4	Duke	81.8%	52.7%	21.4%	11.5%	5.8%	2.9%
5	Wisconsin	65.3%	32.0%	9.9%	5.3%	1.9%	0.8%
6	Texas Tech	62.3%	33.1%	15.5%	5.0%	1.6%	0.6%
7	Florida	52.1%	23.7%	12.3%	3.8%	1.6%	0.5%
8	Nebraska	52.9%	10.8%	5.5%	2.3%	0.5%	0.3%
9	Texas A&M	47.1%	9.3%	4.0%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%
10	Boise State	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
10	Colorado	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
11	NC State	37.7%	16.2%	5.8%	1.1%	0.2%	0.1%
12	James Madison	34.7%	10.6%	2.1%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
13	Vermont	18.2%	4.7%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Oakland	16.6%	3.2%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Western Kentucky	11.8%	2.5%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Longwood	3.4%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

West

PRINTABLE: Download a 2024 March Madness bracket here

Bookmakers are low on North Carolina, which has the worst odds of any No. 1 seed to win the national championship. It's not even the favorite to emerge from the West region — that would be No. 2 Arizona.

Seed	Team	Round of 32	Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Title winner
1	North Carolina	N/A	-200	+120	+300	+1300
2	Arizona	-3000	-350	-105	+260	+1100
3	Baylor	-1400	-135	+375	+675	+3500
4	Alabama	-500	+100	+350	+800	+4000
5	Saint Mary's	-250	+150	+450	+1400	+6600
6	Clemson	+115	+350	+1400	+3000	+15000
7	Dayton	+100	+600	+1200	+4000	+20000
8	Mississippi State	+100	+400	+900	+3000	+15000
9	Michigan State	-120	+275	+700	+2200	+10000
10	Nevada	-120	+475	+1000	+3000	+15000
11	New Mexico	-140	+250	+1000	+2500	+12500
12	Grand Canyon	+200	+500	+1600	+6600	+30000
13	Charleston	+375	+1400	+5000	+20000	+100000
14	Colgate	+775	+1900	+8000	+40000	+200000
15	Long Beach State	+1300	+3500	+8000	+20000	+100000
16	Wagner	N/A	N/A	+20000	+40000	+200000

After the Tar Heels and Wildcats, it's a bit more wide-open for who will be the next most serious challenge. It could be No. 4 Alabama, but the Crimson Tide are only -650 favorites to top No. 13 Charleston. And how about three upset picks in the odds? No. 9 Michigan State, No. 10 Nevada and No. 11 New Mexico are all favorites to win their respective matchups.

The model also is projecting a few upsets, but not all the same. It has the Lobos as slight favorites over No. 6 Clemson and the Spartans as having the edge over No. 8 Mississippi State.

As far as title odds go, New Mexico has the best chance for any team in the double-digit seeding range. Like the oddsmakers, Arizona is the favorite from this region, but the Wildcats are also the only top-four team in odds to come short of double digits, indicating this could be a wide-open region.

Seed	Team	Round of 32	Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Championship	Title winner
1	North Carolina	97.6%	60.0%	35.8%	18.4%	8.2%	4.1%
2	Arizona	94.6%	69.6%	46.6%	26.8%	13.8%	7.1%
3	Baylor	86.4%	53.1%	24.6%	13.9%	6.0%	2.3%
4	Alabama	89.1%	54.8%	28.7%	15.3%	6.8%	2.8%
5	Saint Mary's	66.7%	31.7%	13.7%	6.2%	2.2%	0.8%
6	Clemson	51.5%	22.6%	7.6%	3.0%	0.8%	0.3%
7	Dayton	53.3%	15.8%	7.2%	2.8%	0.7%	0.3%
8	Mississippi State	45.4%	16.3%	7.0%	2.4%	0.7%	0.2%
9	Michigan State	54.6%	23.5%	10.9%	4.5%	2.0%	0.6%
10	Nevada	46.7%	13.7%	6.0%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%
11	New Mexico	48.5%	21.5%	7.6%	3.2%	0.8%	0.3%
12	Grand Canyon	33.3%	10.8%	3.6%	1.4%	0.2%	0.1%
13	Charleston	10.9%	2.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Colgate	13.6%	2.8%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Long Beach State	5.4%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Wagner	2.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%