The final four schools standing in the 2023 NCAA Tournament are certainly not who most expected to make it to the game's biggest stage, but fans of college basketball will still be treated to an action-packed final weekend of games inside NRG Stadium.
Ahead of the Final Four, the West Region champion Connecticut Huskies (-125) sit as the odds-on favorite to claim their fifth National Title in school history. Connecticut hasn't had any trouble advancing to this point, sporting a +90-point differential through four games while dominating on both ends of the floor. Danny Hurley's crew is looking like the team who sat as the No. 2 team in the AP Poll in late December and is now two wins away from etching itself into the history books.
There's a relatively sizeable gap between Connecticut and its top contender, the San Diego State Aztecs, who have +400 odds to win their first National Championship in school history. The Aztecs' title odds moved from 40-1 to 4-1 after winning the South Region following an upset win over top-seeded Alabama along with a narrow one-point victory over Creighton to punch their ticket to the Final Four. The Aztecs' stifling defense is capable of leading it to a National Championship, but it will take another sound performance from their perimeter defense against an outside-shooting-heavy Florida Atlantic (+625) bunch to get there.
BETTING PREVIEWS: UConn-Miami | FAU-SDSU
The Miami Hurricanes (+475) enter the Final Four with the third-best odds to win the National Title, and although they'd likely close as favorites against both San Diego State and Florida Atlantic on a neutral court, the odds are stacked against them to get past Connecticut in the National semifinals. The Hurricanes' cast of elite scorers can get buckets on anyone, but can they get enough stops to take down the Huskies?
Even though they're priced with the longest odds, Dusty May's Florida Atlantic Owls (+625) have seen a seismic shift in their futures after entering the tournament with 200-1 odds to cut down the nets. They have a legit shot to take down the Aztecs en route to a National Championship appearance, sitting as short two-point underdogs. If FAU's able to defeat SDSU, their moneyline would be priced much shorter than 6-1 range to beat either Connecticut or Miami, giving bettors who are higher on FAU relative to the market a chance to cash in on a hefty payday.
MORE FINAL FOUR: DFS lineup | SGP | Best bets
Who's the best bet to cut down the nets on Monday night? Below are BetMGM's updated National Championship odds entering Saturday's National Semifinals.
March Madness 2023: National Championship odds, best bet
| School | Championship Odds |
| Connecticut | -125 |
| San Diego State | +400 |
| Miami (FL) | +475 |
| Florida Atlantic | +625 |
National Championship best bet: Connecticut Huskies -125 (implied probability: 55.56 percent)
Since we're expecting the Huskies to outduel the Hurricanes in the National semifinals, we'll bet the chalk and take Connecticut to win its fifth National Championship in school history. Getting past the stingy Hurricanes won't be easy, but the Huskies are still priced as 5.5-point favorites over the Canes on a neutral court, and KenPom is even higher on Connecticut, projecting them as seven-point favorites on Saturday night.
If UConn's able to get past Miami, it will likely close as multi-possession favorites over both San Diego State and Florida Atlantic, with their moneyline price hovering in the -200 range. We're attempting to get ahead of the market, and although a nice plus-money payout would be better for our bankrolls' sake, there's a reason the Huskies sit as the team to beat.
We've seen numerous upsets to this point of the tournament, but we expect the final three games to go the way of the favorites, resulting in the Huskies cutting down the nets one final time inside NRG Stadium. Connecticut's stability on both ends of the court coupled with its depth and ability to win in multiple ways make it enticing enough to bet on before this weekend's action.
