Every year in the NCAA tournament, basketball fans are on the hunt for a mid-major sleeper who can pull off a couple of upsets and make that Cinderella run to Sweet 16 or even the Elite Eight.
Last year, Saint Peter's University, as a No. 15 seed, took the nation by storm as they made it to the Elite Eight in a tough East region bracket. Before the tourney began, the Peacocks had +10000 odds to make it to the Sweet 16, according to DraftKings Nation. Saint Peter's beat Kentucky (No. 2 seed), Murray St. (No. 7 seed), and Purdue (No. 3) before it lost to No. 1 seed UNC in the Elite Eight.
The year before, we had another No. 15 seed in Oral Roberts, who were +9000 to make the Final Four, pull off two upsets (Ohio State and Florida) before losing to No. 3 seed Arkansas in the Sweet 16. Finally, who could forget what Loyola-Chicago (No. 11 seed) and UMBC (No. 16) did in the 2019 NCAA tourney?
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Loyola-Chicago opened the tournament with 250-1 odds to win the national title and made an incredible run to the Final Four where they lost by 12 to No. 3 seed Michigan in the national semifinal. As for UMBC, they were 20.5-point underdogs to No. 1 seed Virginia and defeated the Cavaliers, 74-54, in the first round. According to BetMGM, it was the second-biggest betting upset of all time during March Madness.
Who are some of the mid-majors that bettors should look out for in the NCAA tournament this week? Below, we'll look at four teams who could be the next Saint Peter's to pull off a couple of upsets in the first and second rounds.
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March Madness Odds 2023: Four mid-major sleepers who could be "this year's Saint Peter's"
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
No. 13 seed Furman
First-round matchup odds: 6.5-point underdogs vs. No. 4 seed Virginia
National Title odds: +50000
Sweet 16 odds: +800
Elite 8 odds: +3000
The betting public loves the Paladins to pull off a first-round upset over the Cavaliers as they are receiving 73 percent of the bets and 82 percent of the handle on the spread and 70 percent of the bets, and 79 percent of the handle on the money line, per BetMGM Insights. Furman were the kings of the SoCon, finishing with a 27-7 record and defeating Chattanooga in the SoCon championship game. The Paladins have a high-scoring offense (82.1 points per game -- 11th in the country), which will be tested against one of the better defensive teams in UVA. However, if they can get the Cavaliers, they would take on the winner of San Diego State/Charleston. If Charleston were to upset San Diego State, we could have a mid-major battle in the second round for the right to go to the Sweet 16. Furman has +800 odds to advance to the Sweet 16, while Charleston's odds are at +475, so laying some money down on both teams makes sense.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic
First-round matchup odds: 1.5-point underdogs vs. No. 8 seed Memphis
National Title odds: +20000
Sweet 16 odds: +500
Elite 8 odds: +1000
The Owls are another team that fans and bettors should watch out for after their incredible season in C-USA. Florida Atlantic finished the regular season 31-3 and has a seven-game winning streak. FAU will face off against Memphis, who defeated Houston in the AAC championship game. The Tigers are a battle-tested team, giving Gonzaga everything it could handle in the second round last season. If FAU were to defeat Memphis, it would face top-seed Purdue, who has one of the dominant big men in the country (Zach Edey). However, you could make the case that the Boilermakers are the weakest No. 1 seed out of the group and can be beaten. The oddsmakers also like the Owls' chances to get to the Sweet 16 at +500.
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No. 12 seed Drake
First-round matchup odds: 2.5-point underdogs vs. No. 5 seed Miami (FL)
National Title odds: +50000
Sweet 16 odds: +425
Elite 8 odds: +1600
The Bulldogs are back in the NCAA tournament for the second time in the past three years after winning the MVC title over Bradley. Drake finished the regular season with a 27-7 record, which includes non-conference wins over Louisiana and Mississippi State. It enters the tourney as one of the better defensive teams, allowing 63.9 points per game (32nd in the country), and has a DRtg of 93.4 (18th in the NCAA). Bettors love this Drake team to upset Miami (FL), as it's getting 73 percent of the bets and 75 percent of the handle on the spread along with 87 percent of the bets and 85 percent of the moneyline. If Drake were to blow by the Hurricanes in the first round, they would play the winner of Indiana/Kent State in the second round. The Bulldogs have +425 odds to make the Sweet 16, which is the highest odds among the mid-majors.
No. 12 Oral Roberts
First-round matchup: 6.5-point underdogs vs. Duke
National title odds: +25000
Sweet 16 odds: +900
Elite 8 odds: +3000
We would be remiss if we didn't talk about the Golden Eagles, who stole the show in the 2021 NCAA tourney as they made it to the Sweet 16 as a No. 15 seed. Oral Roberts is back in the tournament with an outstanding offense led by senior guard Max Abmas. The Golden Eagles will open with No. 5 seed Duke, who won the ACC championship. The Blue Devils are the favorite to win on Thursday, but the Golden Eagles are receiving 53 percent of the bets and 49 percent of the handle on the spread along with 67 percent of the bets and 58 percent of the handle on the moneyline. If ORU can get past Duke, they would play the winner of Tennessee/Louisiana. Oral Roberts is a noticeable sleeper to make it to the Sweet 16 (+950), but don't sleep on a crew that has legit tournament experience.
