Who will be the lucky No. 13 in the 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament?
The four No. 13 seeds in this year's tournament are intriguing options, but three of those teams are double-digit underdogs heading into first-round action.
No. 13 Yale (22-9) takes on No. 4 Auburn (27-7) in the East Region. No. 13 Charleston (27-7) faces No. 4 Alabama (21-11) in the West Region. No. 13 Vermont (28-6) faces No. 4 Duke in the South Region, and No. 13 Samford (29-5) faces No. 4 Kansas (22-10) in the Midwest Region.
The No. 13 seed is 32-120 in the first round – a winning percentage of .211. A total of six No. 13 seeds have reached the Sweet 16, but we have yet to see at No. 13 break through to the Final Four. Furman was the lucky No. 13 in last year's tournament. They upset No. 4 Virginia 68-67 with a wild late steal and bucket.
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Which No. 13 seed is best equipped for a run in 2024?
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No. 13 Yale vs. No. 4 Auburn
BetMGM odds: Auburn -12.5
Why this can happen: It is a stretch. Yale won the Ivy League tournament championship on Matt Knowling's buzzer-beater, which clinched a 62-61 victory against Brown. The Bulldogs are making their fourth tournament appearance since 2016, and they allow just 66.8 points per game. Yale, however, had 15-point losses to Kansas and Gonzaga in the regular season. Auburn is coming off a SEC tournament championship, and the Tigers average 83.2 points per game. Auburn was 16-0 S/U when favored by 10 points or more this season, so this would be a shocking upset.
No. 13 Charleston vs. No. 4 Alabama
BetMGM odds: Alabama -10.5
Why this can happen: Charleston is back in the tournament and has won 57 games in the last two seasons. Pat Kelsey still is looking for that first tournament win, and the Cougars' top three scorers – Reyne Smith (12.8 ppg.), Ante Brzovic (12.3 ppg.) and Ben Burnham (11.7 ppg.) – were part of that team that lost 63-57 to San Diego State. It's an admittedly tough draw against Alabama, which leads the nation in scoring at 90.8 points per game. Charleston gave up 90 points in losses to FAU and Duquesne this year. How long can the Cougars keep up with Alabama?
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No. 13 Vermont vs. No. 4 Duke
BetMGM odds: Duke -11.5
Why this can happen: Vermont is a tournament regular, but the Catamounts are 0-4 in their last four tournament appearances. They have lost those games by an average of 11 points per game, and it will not be easy to contend with Duke forward Kyle Filipowski, who averages 17.1 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. Vermont does rank ninth in the nation in scoring defense (63.0), but there is not a starter taller than 6-foot-7 on the front line. The Catamounts will have to be better than their season average of 34.2% from 3-point range to pull this upset, and that means TJ Long – who hit four 3-pointers in the America East tournament championship – will have to be at his best.
No. 13 Samford vs. No. 4 Kansas
BetMGM odds: Kansas -7.5
Why this can happen: “Bucky Ball” is going to be trending if Samford can get an early lead against the Jayhawks under coach Bucky McMillan. The Bulldogs like to play fast with an offense that ranked fifth in the nation at 86 points per game. Forward Achor Achor averages 15.8 points and 6.1 rebounds, and the Bulldogs shoot 39.3% from 3-point range. Kansas is dealing with injuries to key players Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr., but the Jayhawks can play at a fast pace too. Kansas averaged 75.2 points per game.
Which 13 seed is the best bet for an upset?
The easy answer is Samford, but it's almost a trap at this point. Sure, Kansas is 6-3 S/U and 2-7 ATS when favored between seven-to-10 points this season, but that was against Big 12 competition and non-conference games against Indiana and Kentucky. The Bulldogs might cover, but pulling the upset outright is going to be tough. We have less faith in Vermont and Yale, who might get over-matched by the talent Auburn and Duke have. Charleston is a sleeper here if they can push Alabama into the second half. Kelsey has to break through at some point. Pressed for an answer, Samford is the most-logical upset pick here.
