Don’t be surprised if the 6-11 matchups in the 2024 Men’s Basketball Tournament are the most-popular double-digit upset picks in brackets this year.
There is a strong crop of upset candidates on that line, and three of them will have to go through the Big 12.
No. 11 Duquesne (24-11) takes on No. 6 BYU (23-10) in the East Region. No. 11 New Mexico (26-9) takes on No. 6 Baylor (23-10) in the West Region. No. 11 NC State (22-14) draws No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) in the South Region, and No. 11 Oregon (23-11) takes on No. 6 South Carolina (26-7) in the Midwest Region.
The No. 11 seed is 59-93 in the first round – a winning percentage of .388. A total of 26 No. 11 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 and five have made the Final Four. Pitt won as a No. 11 seed in the first round of last year’s tournament.
Which No. 11 seed is best equipped for a run in 2024?
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No. 11 Duquesne vs. No. 6 BYU
BetMGM odds: BYU -7.5
Why this can happen: Duquesne is back in the tournament for the first time since 1977, and Keith Dambrot is going to get attention for being LeBron James’ high school coach. The Dukes are a fantastic defensive team, too. Duquesne ranks No. 34 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and Dae Dae Grant (16.9 ppg.) is one of the nation’s best free-throw shooters at 95.2%. There is a lot of bracket-buster appeal, but BYU was 20th in the nation in scoring at 81.8 points per game. The Cougars were 5-1 S/U and 5-1 ATS when favored between six and 10 points. This is a tough draw for Duquesne.
No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 6 Clemson
BetMGM odds: New Mexico -2
Why this can happen: Richard Pitino has this team playing at the top of its game after a run through the Mountain West Conference tournament. Four New Mexico players average double digits, including guards Jaelen House (16.1 ppg.) and Jamal Mashburn Jr. (14.4 ppg.), sons of former NBA players Eddie House and Jamal Mashburn. The line has moved to favor New Mexico, and Clemson was a rough watch down the stretch. The Tigers lost three of their last four games, but a tournament often times offers a quick reset.
EXPERT PICKS: DeCourcy (UConn) | Bender (UConn) | Iyer (UConn) | Yanchulis (South Carolina women)
No. 11 NC State vs. No. 6 Texas Tech
BetMGM odds: Texas Tech -5.5
Why this can happen: NC State took a page out of the Jim Valvano script with a miraculous five-game run through the ACC tournament, and they played better defense by allowing 72 points per game in that stretch that included victories against Duke and North Carolina. There is a house-money feel to this team, and that makes them dangerous. DJ Horne scored 29 points in the championship game against North Carolina. Texas Tech has been streaky, and this line accounts for that. Pop Isaacs (15.9 points per game) was limited to six points in the Big 12 tournament loss against Houston. The Wolfpack might have sentimental value here, but Texas Tech is the better defensive team.
No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 6 South Carolina
BetMGM odds: South Carolina -1.5
Why this can happen: That’s an eye-popping line for a double-digit seed, and a tad disrespectful to South Carolina given the Gamecocks won 26 games and have a solid inside-outside game with Meechie Johnson (13.8 ppg.) and B.J. Mack (13.6 ppg.). Can Oregon win that battle with guard Jermaine Cousinard (15.4 ppg.) and 6-11 center N’Faly Dante (16.2 ppg.). Freshman Jackson Shelstad (13.1 ppg.) could be the X-factor in this game. South Carolina (99.7) is a touch better than Oregon (100.6) in adjusted defensive efficiency, and this is shaping up to be one of the best first-round games as a result.
Which 11 seed is the best bet for an upset?
Duquesne will be a trendy pick, but the defense has to hold to have a chance against a Big 12-tested BYU team. NC State will be popular given their miracle run in the ACC tournament last weekend, and New Mexico definitely has appeal against Clemson. Still, that virtual toss-up between Oregon and South Carolina is the game to watch. The Gamecocks were 4-0 S/U and 3-1 ATS when favored by four points or less this season. The Ducks were 4-2 S/U and 4-2 ATS as underdogs of five points or less. That just sets the stage for a true coin flip on the 7-10 line, and the Ducks have a real chance given how well they played at the Pac-12 tournament.
