If you like drawing with chalk and hate the movie "Cinderella," you probably loved how the 2019 NCAA Tournament has played out so far. Or something like that.
All but two of the top four seeds in each region made the Sweet 16 and every No. 1, 2 and 3 seed is still afloat, making for the chalkiest of chalk tournaments since 2008. There is a legitimate chance that, like 11 years ago, all four No. 1 seeds make the Final Four.
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While first- and second-round upsets are exciting and unexpected, ultimately a field made up of the best teams — as is the case this year — will provide more entertaining, evenly-matched games in the Sweet 16 and beyond.
This is tougher from a gambling perspective, however. The Sweet 16 doesn't include a slam-dunk 1 vs. 16 or 2 vs. 15 matchup where it's easy to see the favorite cover. It's of a greater importance to look deeper into the matchups before taking your pick against the spread. We had you covered for first round picks against the spread, and five of the eight were correct. Let's give this another shot for the Sweet 16.
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No. 1 Virginia (-8.5) vs. No. 12 Oregon
Prediction: Oregon
This isn't an indictment of the Cavaliers, but rather another warning to ignore the seeding when deciding whether to bet on the Ducks. They have been hot, and if Kemba Walker and the Connecticut Huskies taught us anything in 2011, it's that being hot can matter in the tournament.
Now, that's not a prediction that the Ducks will go all the way, but the team they were at the beginning of the season isn't the one they are now. They have won their two NCAA Tournament games by an average of 18.5 points, and their defense — which has been a massive part of their 10-game winning streak — looks as good as ever.
While Virginia, with its elite defense and all, is still capable of pulling out a win, it's not going to be a cakewalk and it may be a stretch to have it as the biggest favorite of any Sweet 16 team. Oregon point guard Payton Pritchard is playing at a high level, with an average of 18.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in his two tournament games, while Kenny Wooten — who has four-plus blocks in each of his last four games — is a defensive force unlike anyone else in the tournament.
Feel free to bet on Virginia if you're taking the money line, but don't count on them to cover. This one should be a defensive dogfight.
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No. 1 Gonzaga (-7.5) vs. No. 4 Florida State
Prediction: Florida State
This may be the riskiest pick of the four, because the Bulldogs could come out and throttle the Seminoles and it wouldn't be that surprising. The Seminoles are tough, though. They most recently proved that on Saturday against Murray State, winning by 22 points in spite of Ja Morant doing, well, Ja Morant things. They have the deepest roster in the tournament with 11 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game and make do without a superstar. While Florida State isn't one of KenPom's most efficient offensive or defensive teams left in the tournament, it has five wins over fellow Sweet 16 teams and isn't likely to be intimidated against Gonzaga.
The Bulldogs probably won't get the same Herculean effort from Brandon Clarke (36 points, eight rebounds, five blocks) as they did in the second round, and are among the worst defensive teams remaining in the tournament.
Like with Oregon, don't necessarily take Florida State on the money line here, but Leonard Hamilton's teams are usually a tough out in the tournament, so this one could go down to the wire.
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No. 2 Michigan (-2) vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
Prediction: Texas Tech
Fans of defense won't want to miss this game. It's a battle of KenPom's two best. Conversely, neither offense is even in the top 10 among Sweet 16 teams. Those factors have all of the makings of a close game and a potential instant classic. Neither team has had much trouble against their two tournament opponents, with all four combined wins between the two coming by double digits.
Although defense will be at the forefront, this game may come down to one player: Jarrett Culver. Simply put, Texas Tech has Culver and Michigan does not. The Wolverines' biggest issue all season has been their ability to consistently score, and they don't have a go-to scorer they can always rely on at the end of games.
The Red Raiders do. Culver is special, like NBA lottery pick special, and is the best player on the floor in this game. He is averaging 18.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game and has scored 45 points in two tournament contests. Culver can be a difference-maker down the stretch, so the Red Raiders cover. Barely.
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No. 2 Michigan State (-6) vs. No. 3 LSU
Prediction: Michigan State will cover
There is only one team outside the ACC that is among the top 10 most efficient offensive and defensive teams in the country: the Spartans. They have overcome injuries to not miss a beat, and disposed of Minnesota in the second round despite Cassius Winston's lowest scoring output in over almost three weeks. LSU has looked anything but sharp in its two tournament wins and needed a game-winning layup by Tremont Waters to escape Maryland on Saturday.
The Tigers, who will once again be coached by assistant Tony Benford, are the worst defensive team left in the tournament and had a rating below the likes of Wichita State, Lipscomb and South Florida, which were all in the NIT or worse. Match that up against the fourth most efficient offensive team in the country that has also won seven straight games, and you're better off picking the Spartans to cover.
No. 1 North Carolina (-5) vs. No. 5 Auburn
Prediction: North Carolina will cover
Auburn is a feast or famine offense, and so far it has feasted like a dinner at Fogo de Chao. The Tigers are 25 of 61 from 3-point range and their 120.4 AdjO this season suggests they score more than the typical No. 5 seed. Yet the Tigers were nearly upset by New Mexico State in the first round and their in-season inconsistency makes it a reach to think they can keep up the scoring pace. There's one more problem here: Auburn is playing a team that can score with them.
North Carolina has scorers aplenty. Cam Johnson is shooting 51 percent from the field and 46 percent from 3. Coby White is averaging 19 points in his last eight games. Luke Maye regularly scores in double figures. Nassir Little averages 10 points per game off the bench. Seriously, there is a reason the Tar Heels were third in the country in points per game. If both offenses are at their best, this might be first to 200 points, but North Carolina's group is more consistent and more than capable of covering.
(All spreads via VegasInsider)