CHARLOTTE, N.C. — The University of Maryland, Baltimore County prides itself on being the state’s premier public research institution, so it should come as no surprise that the school’s basketball team has a bit of a connection with kenpom.com — college basketball's marquee advanced analytics site.
Among kenpom's many statistics is one known as "luck" — the deviation between a team's actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies, according to the site's definition. Sitting at the top of the list as the "luckiest" team in the country: the Chesapeake Bay Retrievers.
On one hand, this could be interpreted as a testament to UMBC's ability to finish off teams in close games, but this could also come off as an indictment of the team's success this season, implying its nation-leading luck helped get it to the tournament as opposed to anything within its control.
Senior guard Jairus Lyles believes it's the latter.
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"We don't think anything we've done this year has been about luck," he said while chuckling during Thursday's workout at Spectrum Center. “We put in the work since the coaching staff got here last year. We have a tough task on Friday (as a No. 16 seed vs. South top seed Virginia) and we have to go out and compete.”
Lyles, who sunk the game-winning shot against Vermont in the America East Conference championship to send UMBC (24-10) to the NCAA Tournament, is certainly the expert on the team's efforts to get where it is now. After averaging only two minutes a game during his freshman year at VCU, he transferred to a struggling Retrievers squad that only won seven games.
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The program has rebounded nicely and posted consecutive 20-plus-win seasons, thanks in large part to changes implemented by second-year coach Ryan Odom, the son of former Wake Forest and South Carolina coach Dave Odom. Players noticed the effects immediately.
“He came in from Day 1 and really implemented the offense that really gave us the freedom to shoot the ball at will, and he just really believes in us," said senior guard Jourdan Grant. "We believe in him. When we step on the floor, he just says, 'Go have fun and believe in yourself.' I think that's a big key to our team."
What was once an offensively stagnant side that seemingly couldn’t stop any opponent is now a defensive-minded, unselfish team. It has found ways to step up and win big games, and the team's top scorer seemingly changes from game to game. Odom was also able to turn his speedy 5-8 point guard, K.J. Maura, into the conference's Defensive Player of the Year this season.
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The developments have brought the Retrievers to their first tournament since 2008. Even their upcoming opponent had to take notice of the strides the program has made.
"I think Coach Odom, both of us being coaches' sons, in two years what he's done with that program is terrific, how they've played, and I've been really impressed in watching them on tape," Virginia coach Tony Bennett said. "Good basketball knows no limits, knows no divisions. Doesn't matter what conference you're from, what your seeding is. Good basketball sticks and it shows."
But even with all of the efforts the Retrievers have put in to get to Charlotte, not even Odom can deny the fortunate situation in which his team finds itself. Between the seemingly endless supply of soda in the locker room — and the size of the arena in which the game will be played — the most important thing for him is that his players are smiling and taking in the whole experience. Of course, it certainly wouldn't hurt if those players prove some numbers wrong in the process.
"We follow kenpom, obviously, and take great pride in proving kenpom wrong when his numbers choose somebody else," he said. "We're very fortunate to be here and our guys understand that, and they’re going to do their best."