Kansas vs. Austin Peay
4 p.m. ET, TNT
Line: Kansas -26 Total: 151
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Trends: Kansas 30-4 SU, 21-11 ATS, 12-19-1 O/U. Austin Peay 17-17 SU, 13-15-1 ATS, 19-9-1 O/U.
KenPom efficiency ratings: Kansas 1 (overall), 8 (offense), 5 (defense). Austin Peay 211, 164, 276
Effective FG percentage: Kansas 55.0, Austin Peay 50.4 EFG% against: Kansas 51.2, Austin Peay 48.3
What to like about Kansas — What's not to like about this team. The Jayhawks are experienced and balanced and have rolled through the second half of their schedule. They went 10-3 ATS from February on. They rank in the top 20 nationally in both effective field goal percentage on offense and defense, and rank third in 3-point percentage.
What's not to like about Kansas — Some will knock coach Bill Self, who is 16-17 ATS in the tournament since 2005. Since losing to Kentucky in the 2012 national title game, Kansas hasn't gotten past the Sweet 16 (and gotten there once) despite beign a No. 2 seed or better each year.
What to like about Austin Peay — The Governers get to the free-throw line, ranking fifth nationally in free-throw rate, but 284th in free-throw percentage. They shoot the ball well enough from both 3 and 2 (104th in EFG%).
What not to like about Austin Peay — It ranks 325th in EFG% against and 306th in offensive turnovers. It couldn't stop anyone in the OVC, so Kansas will present a whole new set of challenges defensively.
Pick: Over the last five years, the UNDER is 47-31-2 in first-round games featuring teams seeded 1-4. For one seeds, it's 11-8-1. Austin Peay has been a crazy-good OVER team — closing the year 13-1-1 on the OVER — while Kansas has locked down nearly everyone it's played (8-4-1 on the UNDER to close the year, though the OVER hit in three of its last four). We have a hard time believing Kansas will let AP do anything offensively, so we'll take the UNDER.
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