In the first game of Friday night's Midwest Regional semifinals, the top-seeded Houston Cougars (-7.5) look to build off their dominant second-half performance against Auburn by getting back to the Elite Eight for a third consecutive season. The fifth-seeded Miami Hurricanes pose a real threat to knock off the top-seeded Cougars, though, as Jim Larrañaga's bunch is itching for their second straight Elite Eight trip.
Houston's first three halves of the tournament weren't the most aesthetically pleasing, but after trailing Auburn by 10 points at the break in the Round of 32, Houston started playing its brand of basketball. Of course, it didn't help that Auburn rained in five three-pointers in the first 20 minutes while scoring 41 points, but once those lower-percentage looks stopped falling, Houston looked like the National Championship contender it's made out to be.
The Cougars dominated the final 20 minutes of play, outscoring the Tigers 50-23 en route to a 17-point win. Houston's offense scored an impressive 1.27 points per possession while making the most of its trips to the charity stripe (24-of-29 FT). Auburn didn't hit a three in the final 20 minutes, and its chances of pulling off the upset were dead in the water.
Meanwhile, Miami did whatever it wanted on the offensive end against what had been a solid Indiana defense, scoring 1.23 points per possession and converting over 50 percent of its two-point shots (25-of-47). The ACC regular season champs were the aggressors all night, and its elite cast of shot creators showed out when it mattered most. Getting past the top-seeded Cougars will be an ultimate test of Miami's ability to play soundly on both ends of the court for 40 minutes, but the Hurricanes are capable of doing exactly that.
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Here's everything to know about betting on Houston vs. Miami in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for this Sweet 16 matchup.
Houston vs. Miami odds
Per BetMGM, Houston currently sits as a 7.5-point favorite with a relatively-low total of 137.5. The Cougars' moneyline price of -350 gives them an implied win probability of 77.78 percent, while the Hurricanes' moneyline price of +270 gives them an implied win probability of 27.03 percent.
- Spread: Houston -7.5 (+100); Miami +7.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: OVER 137.5 (-115); UNDER 137.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Houston -350; Miami +270
Three betting trends to watch
— Although Houston has closed as favorites in every game this season, the Cougars haven't been overly profitable against the spread (19-17 ATS, 52.8-percent cover rate).
— Miami's thrived in the underdog role for spread bettors, covering in seven of nine games in which they've closed as 'dogs.
— While the Cougars have won nine of their past 10 contests, they've covered the spread in just three of those 10 games.
Houston key players
After missing the AAC championship and playing just 14 minutes in their opening-round win over Northern Kentucky, guard Marcus Sasser (groin) looked like his healthy self against Auburn. Sasser posted an efficient 154 offensive rating, in part by splashing in five-of-nine three-point attempts and dropping 22 points. His backcourt mate, Tramon Mark, made nine-of-13 two-point attempts in their second-round come-from-behind win. Forwards Jarace Walker and J'Wan Roberts did their part on the glass, helping Houston boast an elite 44.7 offensive rebound rate and a 68.3 defensive rebound rate in the Round of 32.
Miami key players
Miami goes as far as lead guard Isaiah Wong takes them, and in the Hurricanes' 16-point win over Indiana, Wong was far and away the best player on the court (27 points, nine-of-17 shooting). Additionally, 6-7 swingman Jordan Miller imposed his will on the Hoosiers (19 points, nine-of-16 shooting), and if Miami can get consistent production from their four-man, watch out. Guard Wooga Poplar's seen his minutes increase down the stretch as the 6-5 sophomore's the team's best three-point shooter by percentage, canning 40 percent of his triples. Poplar did aggravate his back in the Hurricanes' win over Indiana and his status for Friday is TBD. Five-man Norchad Omier might not be the tallest, but don't let his height deter you after a 17-rebound game against Trayce Jackson-Davis and Indiana. Nigel Pack, the team's highest-volume shooter when on the court, is also key.
Best individual matchup: Marcus Sasser vs. Isaiah Wong
The battle of lead guards is the clear-cut matchup to watch. If this game ends up coming down to the final minutes, whichever guard has more success creating off the bounce likely leads his team to the Elite Eight. Both guards enter Friday off efficient showings in their Round of 32 wins, and parlaying that with another big-time performance is crucial in giving their team a chance to keep their National Title hopes alive.
Houston vs. Miami stat to know
Per KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric, Miami enters the Sweet 16 with the least efficient defense in the tournament, allowing 101.7 points per 100 possessions (108th in D-1). Will the Hurricanes get enough stops against a Houston bunch boasting the nation's ninth-best offense that scores 118.5 points per 100 possessions?
Houston vs. Miami prediction
Miami's lack of size in the front court is concerning against an elite rebounding team in Houston, as Omier's going to need to avoid foul trouble while holding his own against the Cougars' big men. The Hurricanes should be able to get theirs on the offensive end of the floor, but getting key stops on the defensive end likely plagues them. Miami keeps it competitive enough to stay within the number, but Houston notches a trip to its third straight Elite Eight behind another efficient showing from Sasser and Mark.
Prediction: Houston 73, Miami 67. Miami (+7.5) covers the spread, with the game going OVER the total (137.5).
See what BetQL is projecting for Houston vs. Miami, along with sharp picks, value bets, and more for every March Madness game!
