Are we all heading to Arizona merely to watch UConn tear apart two teams and be handed another NCAA Championship trophy?
Because we saw that last year, though we didn’t really see it coming. UConn entered the tournament with the qualities of a championship contender, but their dominance throughout March – and on the Final Four Stage in Houston – was a bit of a surprise.
Not now.
What seems possible (but undesirable for non-Huskies fans) is a repeat of what Villanova achieved in 2018, when they won two games by a combined 33 points, or North Carolina in 2009, when they won by a combined 31 over Villanova and Michigan State.
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It’s more appealing to see a competition than a coronation.
But here’s how the Final Four contenders rank in terms of ability to win the title, and No. 1 is no surprise:
Ranking Final Four 2024 teams
1. Connecticut
Record: 35-3
Why they’ll win it: They’ve always been the team that best fits the typical qualifications for an NCAA champion: multiple NBA first-round picks (every champ since 1988 has had at least one); top 20 offense and defensive efficiency per KenPom.com (every champ that’s played a full season but one met that standard); quality point guard play (first-team All-America choice Tristen Newton); size in the middle to provide rim protection (7-2 center Donovan Clingan); wings who can attack and defend (freshman Steph Castle).
UConn is one of the few teams in this field that meets all the standards.
And honestly, it exceeds them. This is the most proficient offense in college basketball, averaging 126.6 points per 100 possessions. It’s the No. 4 defense, allowing just 91.5 points per 100. That’s a higher adjusted efficiency margin than such dominant teams as 2018 Villanova, 2012 Kentucky and 2009 North Carolina had at season’s end.
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The 30-0 run that turned around what had been a competitive Elite Eight game against Illinois showed how overwhelming UConn be even against outstanding opponents.
Although this team carries the burden of attempting to win a second consecutive title, enough of the Huskies are new to the team – or new to their roles – that they appear to be playing as though none of them owns a ring.
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Why they might not: We’ve honestly seen better teams than this one fail to win the NCAA Championship. That’s not meant to be an insult, but 1991 UNLV was undefeated before running into Duke in the national semifinals. So was 2015 Kentucky, which featured nine future NBA players. Three teams found a way to defeat these Huskies, including Creighton by a 19-point margin a little more than a month ago. That was UConn’s only loss since Jan. 1, but still – it can be done.
What would need to happen? First, the opposition would need to shoot confidently the open 3-pointers it is able to earn. Illinois certainly failed to do that. San Diego State in the Sweet 16? That was the 296th-best 3-point shooting team. Everyone in the Final Four is better than that. But they must believe, and not everyone does when they enter the court against these Huskies. In a competitive-for-a-while Big East title game, Marquette’s David Joplin went 0-for-6 from deep. Nobody is surviving against UConn with a number like that.
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No one is beating this team without an exceptional defensive effort. That starts with holding strong against Tristen Newton’s ability shave the corners on high ball screens set by Clingan. It is hard for his defender to keep up, and if the big defending Clingan helps, he’s getting burned by one of the big man’s devastating rim runs. It’s essential not to give too much help off power forward Alex Karaban and shooting guard Cam Spencer. They are elite shooters. But quality defenders who maintain contact should be able to hold them down. But it’s hard not to get distract when Newton and Steph Castle are charging downhill at the goal.
2. Purdue
Record: 33-4
Why they might win it: Although it can be said no one’s performed better this season than UConn, no one’s defeated a greater list of opponents than these Boilers. They earned a combined 12 victories over teams that became seeded on the top five lines of the NCAA Tournament bracket, including four total victories over No. 2 seeds. So if they can beat the almost-best, maybe they can beat the best, too.
First they’ll have to deal with the hottest: NC State and its astonishing nine-game winning streak under single-elimination pressure.
Purdue causes immediate problems for every opponent with All-American center Zach Edey, who is such a mammoth presence that opponents struggle to defend him without fouling. He drew 16 fouls from Tennessee defenders in the regional final. Graham Ike and Anton Watson fouled out for Gonzaga in the Sweet 16. It frustrates opposing fans to see their favorites called for so many personals, but players and coaches acknowledge how difficult it is to defend him without fouling because of his astonishing physical force.
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All of that is essential to Purdue’s success, but they’re not here without the exceptional efforts of point guard Braden Smith (9.5 assists per tournament game), shooter Fletcher Loyer (11.8 points, 46 percent 3-point shooting) and Lance Jones (shutdown defense after being assigned Vols All-American Dalton Knecht).
Why they won’t: The Boilers were able to beat Tennessee while shooting just 3-of-15 from 3-point range. That’s not going to happen in Phoenix. They might survive the semifinal, but they’ll never beat UConn like that. For one, the Huskies have the only center in college basketball who has a chance to match up physically against Edey: 7-2 Donovan Clingan. UConn is the one team that can afford to guard Edey straight up without necessarily being overwhelmed. That’ll increase the pressure on the perimeter to find and connect on open shots. We’ve not seen anyone in the tournament come close.
As in the game against Tennessee, Purdue does not have an ideal matchup for some of the most important UConn players. If Jones is assigned to stop point guard Tristen Newton, who handles big wing Steph Castle? The mismatch coach Matt Painter tried early against Knecht, with 5-11 Smith giving up seven inches, might be more effective with Castle because he’s not a volume scorer. But Castle has produced three 20-point games since late January. He won’t be an easy mark.
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There will be a week in which the lack of foul calls against Edey will be discussed. He’s had only eight personals whistled against him in four tournament games. It can’t be that he’s not fouling, right? What if all that talk leads officials to be overzealous?
3. NC State
Record: 26-14
Why they might win it: A player like D.J. Burns Jr. can make a huge difference. He destroyed Duke’s interior defense in the South Region final, hitting 13-of-19 from the field for 29 points. But they don’t have to have him dominate to beat quality teams. In the Sweet 16 against Marquette, it was the Wolfpack’s defense that did the job.
Since Louisville (rather inexplicably) shot 10-of-18 from 3-point range in the first game of the ACC Tournament, the Pack’s eight postseason opponents have shot 27 percent on 3-pointers. The best anyone’s done is Oakland’s 34 percent. Only one of those teams was not an NCAA Tournament-qualified group.
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Burns gets much of the attention from the public and opposition because he’s such an amazing finisher in the post, but D.J. Horne has been phenomenal from the outside, reaching double figures in seven of the past eight games. Guard Michael O’Connell is averaging only 5.8 points for the season, but hit double figures in six of the nine postseason games and has hit 15-of-30 on threes.
Why they won’t: Nine consecutive wins have gotten State into the tournament and onto the Final Four, but there’s only so much a team can do in a stretch of that length to repair its statistical profile. This team was 17-14 when the ACC Tournament began. It’s not been that team for a long time – but is it possible to escape that identity in the end?
This is an amazing achievement to get here – some might say it’s an overachievement. But State does not have the talent profile that usually wins at this stage of the tournament. Purdue only marginally is greater in that department, so it’s not out of the question for the Pack to win one more. But that second one, likely against UConn?
That seems a big ask.
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No. 4 Alabama
Record: 25-11
Why they might win it: Alabama is an offensive force like no other in college basketball. There are teams that rank (slightly) higher in efficiency, but there isn’t one that plays this fast and this effectively. Alabama’s 90.7 points per game is No. 1 in Division I, and they’re top 25 in 3-point percentage and effective field goal percentage. When the Tide have the ball, they are extremely dangerous.
That starts with All-America guard Mark Sears, who averages 21.4 points and 4.1 assists. Sometimes he’s the point guard, sometimes he’s off the ball, always he’s looking for his next open 3-pointer. And he doesn’t have to be far inside the midcourt line to be contemplating a shot. He’s not alone as a deep threat; eight players have made at least 20 threes, and four have hit at least 40.
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Having Sears and Aaron Estrada in a dual-point attack makes it more difficult for opponents to scout the Tide. Transfer Grant Nelson is a stretch-5 player who causes serious matchup problems for opposing big men and, though not physically powerful, is so long he can cause problems around the goal. Nelson, Nick Pringle and the team’s orientation toward long-range shooting help make this a surprisingly effective offensive rebounding team.
Why they won’t: This team owns the No. 102 defense in college basketball. Really, I could stop there. Only one team in the past 10 seasons reached the Final Four with a defense even comparable to this, last year’s Miami Hurricanes, and they allowed eventual champion UConn 1.12 points per possession and fell in the national semifinals by 13 points.
Offense wins championships in college basketball, but you have to be able to defend at a reasonably effective level to win these final two games. Alabama was able to prevail over Clemson despite allowing the Tigers to shoot 47.8 percent from the field because of Sears’ 3-point rampage, but a better opponent awaits that is unlikely to be as accommodating.
