Fresh off an ACC Tournament championship, fifth-seeded Duke (-6.5) is looking to stave off an upset against 2021 NCAA Tournament darling, 12th-seeded Oral Roberts. Despite the Blue Devils entering the NCAA Tournament playing their best basketball, the betting market's expecting their first-round matchup to be a closely contested one.
Oral Roberts is riding the nation's longest active win streak (17 games), with its last loss coming in early January against New Mexico. This iteration of the Golden Eagles is much more efficient on both ends of the court relative to their '21 squad, but matchups are everything, and Duke's size and elite athleticism might be too much for Oral Roberts to handle.
Before these squads duel on Thursday night (7:10 p.m. ET, CBS), here's everything to know about betting on Duke vs. Oral Roberts in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for this first-round game.
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Duke vs. Oral Roberts odds
Per BetMGM, Duke currently sits as a 6.5-point favorite, with the total set at 145.5 points. Duke's moneyline price of -300 gives it an implied win probability of 75 percent, but even with the odds stacked against Oral Roberts, it's capable of taking down one of the game's blue bloods.
- Spread: Duke -6.5 (-110); Oral Roberts +6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 145.5 (-110); UNDER 145.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Duke -300; Oral Roberts +230
Three betting trends to watch
— Despite entering its first-round matchup covering in four of its past five games, Duke's posted a 15-19 ATS mark this season (44.2 percent cover rate).
— Oral Roberts has also underperformed relative to the spread, posting a 15-19 ATS record (44.8 percent).
— The Golden Eagles haven't been in the underdog role much this season but have gone 1-3 ATS in those games, with their lone cover coming in their season opener against Saint Mary's (+9).
MORE NCAA TOURNAMENT BETTING:
Odds | Favorites & Sleepers | Props | Round 1 Best Bets
Duke key players
Duke's led by two double-digit scorers -- forward Kyle Filipowski (15.4 ppg) and guard Jeremy Roach (13.3 ppg) -- but fellow contributors Tyrese Proctor (9.3 ppg) and Mark Mitchell (9.1 ppg) can also shoulder the load on the offense. The entirety of Duke's eight-man rotation ranks above average in offensive rating, and their balanced production is a good sign of a team capable of making a deep tournament run.
Two of Duke's five-star freshmen, center Dereck Lively and wing Dariq Whitehead, average under nine points per game, but don't be fooled by their season-long numbers. Lively's seen his minutes significantly increase since the end of January and has scored 10-plus points in three of the Blue Devils' past seven contests. Whitehead's an elite floor spacer shooting 41.1 percent from three capable of canning a handful of threes, making him a dangerous piece as the team's fifth-leading scorer.
MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here
Oral Roberts key players
Max Abmas starred in the 2021 Tournament, and he still carries the load offensively for Oral Roberts, averaging 22.2 points per game on 44.1 percent shooting from the field. The senior guard takes 27.7 percent of the Golden Eagles' shots while on the floor, boasting an efficient 121.9 offensive rating on his high-volume shooting.
Abmas, alongside 7-5 center Connor Vanover (12.9 ppg, 52.4 FG%) helps form a lethal pick-and-pop combo that can pull opposing big men out to the perimeter. Outside their top-two scoring options, ex-Kansas Jayhawk Issac McBride chips in with 11.9 points per game, helping the Golden Eagles rank 23rd in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Best individual matchup: Jeremy Roach vs. Max Abmas
Both schools lean on their lead guards to run the show in late-game situations, setting up a must-see matchup between Roach and Abmas. Roach enters Thursday's matchup off a season-high 23 points in Duke's ACC Tournament Championship win over Virginia, while Abmas calmly dropped 26 points in Oral Roberts' 92-58 dismantling of North Dakota State in the Summit League finals. Whichever guard can get to their spots more consistently should give their team an upper hand.
Duke vs. Oral Roberts stat to know
Duke enters the NCAA Tournament boasting the nation's eighth-highest offensive rebounding rate, corralling 36.2 percent of their missed shots. The Blue Devils also lead the country in average height, so it will be challenging for Oral Roberts to keep them off the offensive glass. While Oral Roberts ranks above the D-1 average in limiting their opponents on the offensive glass (27.4 percent), Duke's an entirely different animal and could expose the Golden Eagles via second-chance scoring opportunities.
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Duke vs. Oral Roberts prediction
Had Oral been matched up against any other five seed, we'd likely lean the way of the Golden Eagles to win outright, but Duke's defensive versatility in guarding Vanover out on the perimeter while dominating on the glass should result in a first-round victory and Jon Scheyer's first-ever NCAA Tournament win.
Covering the current 6.5-point spread is a different task, though, and KenPom's three-point projection could point to an edge in favor of Oral Roberts. This spread could come down to late-game fouling by the Golden Eagles, or a meaningless basket by Oral Roberts that helps cash spread tickets for ORU backers. Regarding the total, Duke's ability to dictate the tempo and keep the Golden Eagles out of transition results in this game falling UNDER the total.
Prediction: Duke 74, Oral Roberts 69. Oral Roberts (+6.5) covers the spread with the game going UNDER the total (145.5).
See what BetQL is projecting for Duke vs. Oral Roberts, along with sharp picks, value bets, and more for every March Madness game!
