Could UConn possibly be better than they were a year ago, even though the Huskies lost three NBA players from the team that won the 2023 NCAA Championship?
No.
Because the use of the word “possibly” is unnecessary.
Although they aren’t quite at the top of the chart in DeCourcy’s Dozen – remember, we are ranking accomplishment here – the Huskies definitely are a better team than they were when they won it all. And the rest of college basketball is not as dangerous, generally, as the field was last season. That does not mean UConn will win it again. Each NCAA Tournament is its own invention.
The Huskies’ path to last year’s final was apparent to me as soon as I glanced at the bracket. In the West Region, No. 1 seed Kansas was playing with a 6-7 center. No. 2 seed UCLA was was missing two injured starters. No. 3 seed Gonzaga could score with anyone but struggled to defend. No. 4 UConn had endured one brutal midseason stretch, but was exceptional on both sides of that slump.
This year could play out more comfortably, with the Huskies coming from a likely No. 1 seed. Or they could be faced with this year’s version of UConn, whoever that might be in 2024. It’s been 17 years since we last had a repeat champion, when Florida won in both 2006 and 2007. Before that, it was 14 years between Duke’s early-90s repeat and the Gators’.
Maybe it’s time again.
In this case, that “maybe” fits.
1. Purdue (19-2)
KenPom rank: 2
NET rank: 2
Next up: Northwestern, Jan. 31
Overview: What a grand favor Steve Pikiell did for the Boilermakers in Sunday’s game at Rutgers. No doubt Pikiell was trying to win, but his decision to use just about every defensive tactic available to knock the Boilers off their game was exactly what Purdue needed. They’ve faced unconventional teams and tactics and struggled with all of that in the past three tournaments, two of which ended with first-round eliminations. This gave them a chance to compete against a lot of different approaches – and to confront serious game pressure on the road – and figure out a way to survive.
2. Connecticut (18-2)
KenPom rank: 6
NET rank: 8
Next up: Providence, Jan. 31
Overview: The Huskies had a whole week off in advance of their Sunday home game against Xavier, where the program’s 2004 NCAA Championship team was honored. Then they went out and beat a solid Musketeers squad by 43 points. Those must have been some practices.
3. North Carolina (17-3)
KenPom rank: 6
NET rank: 7
Next up: Georgia Tech, Jan. 30
Overview: If you were watching North Carolina’s visit Saturday to Florida State, you saw a side of Hubert Davis that rarely is made apparent to the public. During a timeout late in the first half after the Heels failed to get a ball inbounded against an FSU press, Davis went off on the Heels who’d been on the floor for the play. There was a lot of finger-pointing and cajoling, and it was kind of cool to see the preternaturally calm Davis getting exaggerated on the sideline. Maybe it helped, because the Heels dug themselves out of a rare deficit to win in one of the ACC’s tougher road venues.
4. Tennessee (15-4)
KenPom rank: 4
NET rank: 3
Next up: South Carolina, Jan. 30
Overview: The Vols may regret flubbing some of their early tests, which put them behind in the race for a No. 1 seed, but they’re still developing into a team that could compete for the school's first Final Four and, obviously, first NCAA men’s title. They’re one of seven teams that currently meets what has become a requirement for an NCAA Championship: top 20 rankings in both offensive and defensive efficiency at KenPom.com. In the site’s records, only one team that played a full, uninterrupted season and did not meet that standard won it all: 2014 Connecticut, which ranked 39th in offense.
5. Houston (18-2)
KenPom rank: 1
NET rank: 1
Next up: at Texas, Jan. 29
Overview: It is a big week for the Cougars, who will ride a four-game winning streak to both Texas and Kansas, challenges that could push this team into contention for the No. 1 overall seed. They already have the top spot in the most important predictive metrics, but they had been extremely light on high-end road achievement before last weeks’ win over BYU. Now they go back-to-back with the Longhorns and Kansas Jayhawks. If Houston gets both of those, they’ll be positioned as solidly for top NCAA seeds as Purdue and UConn.
MORE: Betting trends to know for Houston-Texas
6. Wisconsin (16-4)
KenPom rank: 10
NET rank: 11
Next up: at Nebraska, Feb. 1
Overview: The Badgers are playing so well – they even stand ahead of Purdue in the Big Ten Conference, although next Sunday will be the first of two games between the two – that some are willing to openly discuss whether this Wisconsin team is in the class with the last couple of Bo Ryan’s Hall-of-Fame-worthy tenure. You know, the two that reached consecutive Final Fours. I don’t believe the talent is on the same level. But just having analysts bring it up is quite a compliment.
7. Marquette (15-5)
KenPom rank: 13
NET rank: 15
Next up: at Villanova, Jan. 30
Overview: The Golden Eagles’ four-game winning streak will be imperiled with a couple of Big East road games in the next seven days, at Villanova and Georgetown. There are more daunting excursions in the Big East, let alone all of college basketball, but Marquette so far has been a .500 team on the road. So why are they here? Because some other contenders for such prominence in DeCourcy’s Dozen have been worse.
8. Kansas (15-4)
KenPom rank: 17
NET rank: 14
Next up: Oklahoma State, Jan. 30
Overview: What makes KU’s problems less disconcerting than some other is they are obvious, and possibly manageable. The Jayhawks began the season with only four functional players. Freshman Johnny Furphy’s four consecutive double-figure scoring performances indicates they now are up to five. Progress! Furphy didn’t appear to the public to be advancing to this stage, so it’s possible veteran Nicolas Timberlake or freshman Elmarko Jackson might get there. But the Jays got a single basket and only 24 minutes from their bench in Saturday’s loss at Iowa State, though. How long can KU endure with all possible starters working 35 minutes per game?
9. Arizona (15-5)
KenPom rank: 4
NET rank: 4
Next up: California, Feb. 1
Overview: When the Wildcats were set loose on the crumbling carcass of the Pac-12, with so many of their customary competitors stuck in rebuilding seasons and so many potential competitors languishing in extended periods of mediocrity, it seemed to be just this side of inhumane. So how are they here now with a 6-3 record in the league, only tied for first? (But, hey, at least they control the head-to-head tiebreaker). Their inconsistency has been baffling given the talent on hand. Arizona has lost to three teams unlikely to make March Madness. That’s the sort of thing one usually observes with teams that spend February on the bubble.
10. Iowa State (16-4)
KenPom rank: 12
NET rank: 10
Next up: at Baylor, Feb. 3
Overview: The problem with Iowa State’s resume is how much of the most significant achievements were gained at home. Not many have beaten opponents on the level of Kansas and Houston, let alone both. But not many have had two such powers visit their floor. Three of the Cyclones’ next four are on the road. We’ll see whether they’re still in this neighborhood by Valentine’s Day.
11. Duke (15-4)
KenPom rank: 14
NET rank: 19
Next up: at Virginia Tech, Jan. 27
Overview: The problem with what occurred at the end of Duke’s one-point home win Saturday over Clemson wasn’t necessarily the foul call that put Tyrese Proctor at the line with a chance to convert two free throws and put the Blue Devils in front. The problems were these: 1) Proctor exaggerated the contact, which made it seem he’d not been fouled. 2) We’ve been conditioned not to expect officials to make such calls in the closing seconds of games, which is the responsibility of thousands of officials over decades of play. 3) If the same play at happened in, say, Littlejohn Coliseum, it probably would have gone unchecked. That’s the baggage that leads to controversy.
Tyrese Proctor : 18 points on 5-10 shooting, 4-6 from 3, 4-4 from the FT line, 5 rebounds & 2 steals in 38 minutes (Made 2 go-ahead FT's with 0.4 seconds left after he got fouled by Josh Beadle) pic.twitter.com/13DEOqTpwJ
— Lee Harvey (@MusikFan4Life) January 28, 2024
12. Kentucky (15-4)
KenPom rank: 20
NET rank: 23
Next up: Florida, Jan. 31
Overview: The Wildcats have defeated fewer heavyweights than anyone on this list, and some that are excluded, but they did get rising power North Carolina on a neutral court, and they are 5-3 in games outside of Rupp Arena. That includes two league road wins, which some more accomplished teams can’t match.
