The title “DeCourcy’s Dozen” implies some kind of ownership by me over the 12 most accomplished teams in college basketball. What I’m thinking after the past seven days is: Do I have to claim these guys?
Someone else want them?
This is not an extraordinary year for top teams in college basketball – largely because it’s not an extraordinary year for top talent. One must travel deep into the typical NBA mock draft to find the first college player listed. USA Today draws four of its top five projected selections from either international clubs or the G League Ignite program. For ESPN.com, it was four of the top six.
And neither is it a season in which we were blessed with an abundance of returning college stars. Nine of last season’s 10 consensus All-Americans completed their careers last season. Only Player of the Year Zach Edey returned.
So should we surprised to see five of the NET top 6 – and, more to the point, seven of the original DeCourcy’s Dozen – lose in a week?
Not this year.
Last year’s Final Four featured a 9 seed, two 5 seeds and a 4.
If the teams listed here want to make it to Phoenix, they’ll need to get busy improving.
1. Purdue (15-2)
KenPom rank: 3
NET rank: 3
Next up: at Indiana, Jan. 16
Overview: Purdue has shown us it will arrive fully prepared and ready to dominate in all the biggest games. But what about the games that are bigger for the opposition than for the Boilers? That’s when they have a problem. And only two of the remaining road games – Feb. 4 at Wisconsin and March 5 at Illinois – fit that description from a resume standpoint. However, there is the little matter of payback this week to address with the Hoosiers, who swept Purdue a year ago.
2. Kansas (13-2)
KenPom rank: 17
NET rank: 16
Next up: at Oklahoma State, Jan. 16
Overview: The Jayhawks got a combined 11 points from players outside the core four of Hunter Dickinson, KJ Adams, Kevin McCullar and Dajuan Harris in their impressive dismissal of Oklahoma. And the bench overall contributed just 29 minutes. They’re the best four-man team in America, but it’s a five-man game (plus subs).
3. Connecticut (15-2)
KenPom rank: 7
NET rank: 9
Next up: Creighton, Jan. 17
Overview: Nothing about UConn’s resume to date really fits the description of what we’re looking for most: accumulated success against the nation’s strongest teams. But not losing counts, too.
UConn’s pre-conference schedule included a series of big names and not-so-big teams. They played Indiana, Texas and Gonzaga – all of which have been historically successful, but none of which is in my current projected NCAA field for Fox Sports. And their league schedule has been less strenuous than it might have been, which has been well-timed given the injury-related absence of star center Donovan Clingan. It’s not out of the question for him to return to for the Creighton game, which would be timely given the impending matchup against the Jays’ Ryan Kalkbrenner.
4. North Carolina (13-3)
KenPom rank: 6
NET rank: 7
Next up: Louisville, Jan. 17
Overview: Since losing to Kentucky in the CBS Sports Classic, the Tar Heels added a neutral court win over Oklahoma and a double-digit road win against Clemson to their portfolio. Their past six wins have been by double-figure margins. Games that figured to at least be competitive – at NC State, home against Syracuse – rapidly became blowouts. This is not the same team it was a year ago. And there’s beginning to be some question who in this league – aside from you-know-who – can challenge the Heels.
5. Kentucky (12-3)
KenPom rank: 18
NET rank: 18
Next up: Mississippi State, Jan. 17
Overview: Given the inability to finish off what would have been a nice road win at Texas A&M, a lot of the Wildcats’ resume is riding on their victory against the Tar Heels. The next five games – home against Mississippi State, Georgia and Florida and on the road at South Carolina and Arkansas – feel like games they can’t afford to lose.
6. Tennessee (12-4)
KenPom rank: 8
NET rank: 6
Next up: Florida, Jan. 16
Overview: Here’s some really bad news if you’re a fan of an SEC team other than Tennessee: The past four editions of Volunteers won an average of 22 games while ranking only 70th in offensive efficiency at KenPom.com. This team is No. 20 in that category.
7. Memphis (15-2)
KenPom rank: 46
NET rank: 50
Next up: South Florida, Jan. 18
Overview: Nine of the Tigers’ victories have been by two possessions (or fewer). The computers hate that!
8. Houston (13-3)
KenPom rank: 1
NET rank: 1
Next up: Texas Tech, Jan. 17
Overview: Those who believe all of basketball comes down to power rankings aren’t going to be delighted by Houston’s positioning here. I’m not saying the Cougars can’t be a really terrific team. I’m not saying they aren’t one now. I am saying most of their schedule to this point has been meager, and most of what hasn’t been hasn’t gone so well for them.
9. Arizona (12-4)
KenPom rank: 2
NET rank: 2
Next up: Southern California, Jan. 17
Overview: The Pac-12 Conference performance to date suggests there aren’t really any teams in the league that can beat the Wildcats. Oh, but they seem to be capable at times of beating themselves.
10. Wisconsin (13-3)
KenPom rank: 9
NET rank: 12
Next up: at Penn State, Jan. 16
Overview: Would you believe it if I told you the Badgers were favored by KenPom to win 14 of their final 15 games? Do you realize if that happened, it’s possible Purdue could finish No. 1 in the nation and second-place in the Big Ten?
11. Auburn (14-2)
KenPom rank: 4
NET rank: 8
Next up: at Vanderbilt, Jan. 17
Overview: The Tigers still don’t have a single Quad-1 win. There are nine teams from outside the top six conferences in the NET Top 30, and only one could say that.
12. Duke (13-3)
KenPom rank: 10
NET rank: 15
Next up: Pitt, Jan. 20
Overview: The Blue Devils get a week off, but it’s not like there’s been much heavy lifting to this point in the ACC. Their league opponents have a composite record of 7-19 in conference play.
