In the 2023 National Championship, the fourth-seeded Connecticut Huskies (-7.5) face off against the fifth-seeded San Diego State Aztecs on Monday night inside NRG Stadium (9:20 p.m. ET, CBS).
Connecticut earned its trip to the title game after another sound performance against Miami, notching yet another double-digit victory with a 72-59 win. The Huskies held what was the nation's fifth-most efficient offense to only 32.3 percent shooting from the field while outrebounding the Hurricanes 42-31.
Miami's susceptible interior defense couldn't contain Connecticut big man Adama Sanogo, as the First Team All-Big East selection scored a game-high 21 points on an efficient nine-of-11 shooting from the floor. Connecticut led wire-to-wire and despite a couple of runs from the Hurricanes to give them some life, the Huskies were in control throughout, continuing to impose their win on their opposition.
San Diego State's semifinal victory wasn't nearly as seamless, as the Aztecs had to rally from 14 down in the second half, needing a buzzer-beating pull-up from guard Lamont Butler to stave off Florida Atlantic, 72-71. After allowing Florida Atlantic to score 40 first-half points, in part by the Owls' canning six-of-14 three-point shots, the Aztecs' defense tightened up in the latter 20 minutes of play. Florida Atlantic scored just six points in the final seven minutes and change of regulation, as the Owls' inability to close down the stretch came back to haunt them.
Can the Aztecs keep up their magical run with an upset win over the red-hot Huskies, or will Connecticut claim its fifth National Championship in school history? Here's everything to know about betting on Connecticut vs. San Diego State in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for this National Championship Game matchup.
Connecticut vs. San Diego State odds
- Spread: Connecticut -7.5 (-110); San Diego State +7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 132.5 (-110); UNDER 132.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Connecticut -350; San Diego State +275
Per BetMGM, Connecticut currently sits as a 7.5-point favorite over San Diego State. The Huskies' moneyline price of -350 gives them an implied win probability of 77.78 percent, while San Diego State's moneyline price of +275 gives it a 26.67-percent chance to win the title game. The total's currently set at a relatively low 132.5 points, considering the Huskies are averaging 79.8 points per game in the tournament.
Betting trend to watch
If the Huskies end up closing as 7.5-point favorites, they'll be the largest favorite in the National Championship since 2009, when North Carolina closed as 7.5-point favorites against Michigan State in a game the Tar Heels won 89-72. Connecticut's also looking to end the NCAA Tournament with a 6-0 ATS record, steamrolling through its first five opponents.
Connecticut key players
Connecticut's deep and balanced roster has helped it reach the National Championship Game, but for the Huskies to cut down the nets, they'll need their go-to players, Sanogo (17.1 ppg, 60.2 FG%) and Jordan Hawkins (16.3 ppg, 40.7 FG%) to stress the Aztecs' defense over 40 minutes. Hawkins wasn't 100 percent on Saturday night after dealing with a stomach issue that sidelined him during Friday's practice, but that didn't seem to hamper him one big on Saturday, as the sharpshooting sophomore dropped 13 points on three-of-eight shooting. Sanogo won't have as easy of a time dominating the paint against a stout Aztec interior defense, but his physical style of play should lead to another effective performance.
San Diego State key players
Like Connecticut, the Aztecs' depth and balance have helped propel them to their first National Championship appearance in school history, but they'll especially need leading scorer Matt Bradley (12.5 ppg, 40.1 FG%) to show out on the game's biggest stage. After two underwhelming performances, Bradley came up clutch for the Aztecs on Saturday night, scoring 21 points on five-of-12 shooting. Butler, Bradley's backcourt mate, has been uber-efficient the past two games but has continued to play within the flow of the offense while not forcing his shot (outside of the final possession against FAU). We'll if that continues in a game the Aztecs likely need their offense to carry themselves to a championship.
Best individual matchup: Adama Sanogo vs. Nathan Mensah
The battle of the big men should play a crucial role in the outcome of this one. Whichever big is able to better protect the rim while getting to its spot more often on the offensive end of the floor should lead help lead its team to a National Championship. While Mensah isn't as dominant as an offensive weapon as Sanogo is, his defensive prowess has been key in the Aztecs' deep tournament run. We'll see if Sanogo's able to drop 20-plus against Mensah and the rest of the Aztecs' frontcourt.
Connecticut vs. San Diego State stat to know
Both defenses rank within the top 20 nationally in effective field goal percentage per KenPom, as both units have defended the perimeter and interior well through five games. Connecticut's been slightly better in that category, holding opponents to the eighth-best eFG% (44.8 percent), but San Diego State's not far behind, boasting the nation's 20-best rate (46.5 eFG%).
Connecticut vs. San Diego State prediction
With Connecticut's moneyline sitting at -350, that's a good indication the Huskies will claim their fifth National Championship in school history, but the spread is always the equalizer. Getting multiple possessions in a National Championship Game looks enticing enough to want to side with the underdog, but Connecticut's not the freight train we want to step in front of right now. The Huskies' elite two-way play is too much for the Aztecs to handle, as Danny Hurley's bunch notches yet another multi-possession victory, etching themselves into the history books.
Prediction: Connecticut 71, San Diego State 62. Connecticut (-7.5) covers the spread, with the game going OVER the total (132.5).
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