The day has finally arrived: National Championship Monday! Tonight we will witness the Connecticut Huskies and San Diego State University Aztecs battle it out for the chance to cut down the final nets of the 2023 NCAA March Madness Tournament (9:20 p.m. ET, TBS). And while UConn enters the evening a whopping -7.5 favorite and -350 on the moneyline, the Aztecs have given bettors plenty of reasons to second-guess doubting them and going with the heavy chalk. Today we will discuss the best bets and value wagers you can make for the National Championship Game outside of the traditional moneyline and spread picks.
MORE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME COVERAGE: Betting preview | Top DFS lineup
What Dan Hurley's Huskies have done over the past month is nothing short of amazing. They have improved to 16-0 against teams outside of the Big East (15-0-1 ATS), winning those games by an average of nearly 25 points. Their warpath through the NCAA Tournament has left teams like Gonzaga, Miami, and St. Mary's — squads that otherwise enjoyed fantastic seasons — beaten down and bruised. Connecticut has averaged nearly 80 points per game since the Big Dance began, while holding opponents to 59.2. The level of domination has been practically unprecedented.
The most recent wins deserve more than just a paragraph. UConn took Gonzaga, the nation's top-scoring offense, and dismantled them to the tune of 82-54 in the Elite Eight. The Huskies limited the Bulldogs to 33.4 percent from the floor and 2-of-20 beyond the arc, and dominated every major stat category (+8 in rebounds, +8 in assists, +4 in blocks). UConn then made mincemeat of Miami, the fifth-most efficient offense in college hoops, holding the Hurricanes to 32.3 percent shooting from the field while outrebounding them 42-31, winning the assist battle 19-10, and blocking five shots to Miami's one. Systematic devastation.
MORE: UConn star Jordan Hawkins blames Final Four illness on calamari | UConn's unsung hero
San Diego State's path has been — well — a bit more understated. A popular pick to get upset in the first round (I plead the fifth), the Aztecs flew cross-country to Orlando and won a hard-fought 63-57 battle over a 31-4 Charleston team. Then they rolled Cinderella special Furman, which had just upset Virginia. Then came the real wrecking ball moment, when Brian Dutcher's squad knocked off top-seeded Alabama 71-64 behind dominating defense and timely shot-making. The Tide shot 32.4 percent from the floor and an unbelievable 3-of-27 from three-point land.
Playing with house money, SDSU continued its improbable run with two consecutive one-point victories — one over Creighton in the Elite Eight, and one over Florida Atlanta via an incredible Lamont Butler buzzer-beater to advance to the title game. Madness. While guard Matt Bradley has flashed moments of offensive brilliance, and Nathan Mensah has been instrumental down low, the name of the game for the Aztecs has been defense and grit. But this D will have its hands full defending a Connecticut team that can score from all three levels and call upon any number of skilled scorers to step up in the clutch.
MORE: SDSU coach Brian Dutcher explains Lamont Butler's buzzer-beater: 'I ran out of plays'
Huskies big man Adama Sanogo, a First Team All-Big East selection, has been as massive as his 6-9, 240-pound frame. He shot 9-of-11 against Miami — scoring a game-high 21 points and ripping down 10 boards — and will likely try to similarly impose his will down low against San Diego State. Creighton almost succeeded with that game plan via 7-footer Ryan Kalkbrenner, but his 17 points weren't enough to stop this SDSU train — just like FAU's 14-point second-half advantage in the Final Four wasn't enough.
DECOURCY: How to deal with the Huskies and Aztecs, as told by their past opponents
Can the Aztecs continue making the seemingly-impossible possible? Or will the freight train that the Huskies have proven themselves to be finally derail the little engine that could we call SDSU? Our answer to that question will reveal itself in short order, as we have packaged a few best bets for you ahead of the big day. Without further ado, here's our favorite non-traditional wagers from the Connecticut vs. San Diego State National Championship Game. Good luck, and enjoy the remainder of the ride!
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Connecticut-San Diego State National Championship best bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, BetMGM, and FanDuel Sportsbooks
Same Game Parlay: Connecticut -350 moneyline + UNDER 134.5 points (+115 on DK)
Of all the game picks and props we have rummaged through this weekend, our favorite remains the UNDER of 132.5. And we can't remember feeling more confident in a team going into Championship Monday than we do right now about these Huskies. But just to be safe — because conservative wins always feel better than narrow losses — we're recommending you buy two points to increase the total for your UNDER, and then offset the juice by parlaying it with UConn's moneyline. That simple, unconventional move gives you a high probability of cashing on plus-odds with very little risk. A $75 wager would pay out $161.25.
Now, for those uninterested in getting fancy or messing with parlays of any kind, it should be noted: we would confidently bet the UNDER of 132.5 as a standalone lock. We simply cannot imagine this being a high-scoring game, even if San Diego State mounts one of the biggest upsets in the history of the National Championship. Both these teams play stingy defense, and neither would have made it to the title game without stifling opponents along the way.
The Aztec's strategy will likely be to slow UConn down and make the Huskies uncomfortable. We've heard countless analysts refer to a bunch of SDSU's upset wins throughout this unfathomable campaign as "rock fights." KenPom ranks SDSU as the fourth-best defense in the nation, an assertion that seems validated after Brian Dutcher's guys held its five March Madness opponents to an average of exactly 60 points per game.
But Dan Hurley's Connecticut team is pretty dang good at defense, too. And the Huskies strategy will be to pound the paint and remain efficient on offense, force low-percentage shots on defense, and protect the rim. Part of that rim protection will be defensive rebounding, which the Huskies could prepare a MasterClass about during the offseason.
As friend of the Sporting News Dan Karpuc of BetQL put it, the Aztecs "haven’t outrebounded any of their last three opponents by more than one. The Huskies have controlled the glass, outrebounding their opponents by nine, eight, 12, nine and 16." In that same column, Karpuc highlighted another important stat: UConn is 16-0 against non-conference opponents this season.
Don't be surprised to see Huskies big man Adama Sanogo continue his torrid run this evening. The Mali native, who just started playing basketball six years ago at the age of 15, just continues to improve. His athleticism and tenacity on the interior make him look like a man among boys, and his instincts with and around the ball as well as his soft shooter's touch could push him from Elite Eight x-factor to Final Four MVP.
This is all bad news for San Diego State, but it's great news for UNDER bettors. The Aztecs are playing with house money — and win or lose, they will have nothing to hang their head about going into Tuesday. But just like we don't see their defense allowing UConn to score 75 points, we also have a tough time envisioning their offense even sniffing 65. They just flat-out don't have enough bangers down low or enough scorers beyond Matt Bradley to keep up with this Husky behemoth that looks destined to make history.
Total points range: 121-130 (+275) and/or 111-120 (+450, both on BetMGM)
This seems like almost an extension of our last play, but nonetheless these winning margin range props caught our eye on BetMGM so we felt the need to include them on our list. As we have illustrated, we don't see this game being a scoring bonanza. Both of these squads rank top eight in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, and both have been limiting high-scoring offenses to well below their per-game averages the entire tournament. Take a look at all these bullet points worth noting:
- The average total score of San Diego's five tournament games entering tonight: 127.6.
- The average total score of the Aztec's five tournament opponents: 60.0.
- The average amount surrendered by UConn in the tournament: 59.2.
- The total of the BetQL model's projected score (UConn 67.5, SDSU 61.5): 129.
That's professorial PowerPoint-level support of the 121-130 range, if you ask me. But the outside-the-box bettor in me contemplates going a little wild with these winning margin ranges. Instead of betting $100 on one of these 10-point ranges, what if we bet $75 on the one we like the most, and $25 on our second-favorite range, which yields a much higher payout? That way, if we hit on the 121-130 bet at $75, we hit $281.25 and walk away with a $181.25 net profit. If we hit on the 111-120 bet at $25, we hit $137.50 and still turn a profit of $37.50.
In this instance, we have drastically reduced our risk by guaranteeing a win if the total falls anywhere between 111-130 points. If you're leaning toward a higher total, you could follow the same strategy by breaking up your $100 investment 50-50 into the 121-130 and 131-140 ranges, the latter of which pays out at +260. Your ceiling win won't be as high as the 121-130 prop at $75, but your floor win would obviously be higher.
First Half winner / Full-time winner parlay: Connecticut (-160 on FD)
Look, it may be boring, and it may involve more juice than you usually like to take on — but if it follows the narrative you believe the game will follow, you have to consider making the bet. The Huskies look like a dominant blue-blood, having regularly obliterated every opponent outside of its conference this season and by a margin of nearly 25 points. In the March Madness Tournament alone, Hurley's squad has downed opponents by an average score of 80-59. It would come as a massive surprise to basically every college basketball analyst and betting analyst if San Diego State had this game tied at halftime, never mind if the Aztecs somehow led at the end of the half or game. This is a great way of reducing the juice you would pay on a standard moneyline while also avoiding the spread. If you feel the game will be handled start-to-finish but don't want any garbage-time spoilers, this could be your path to some title game cash.
See what BetQL is projecting for Connecticut vs. San Diego State, along with sharp picks, value bets, and more for every March Madness game!
