The 2016-17 college basketball season is nearly upon us, and fans will be treated immediately to an impressive slate of games on Friday's opening night, headlined by No. 10 Arizona facing off against No. 12 Michigan State.
Last season, Villanova snapped its NCAA Tournament rut with a memorable championship run. The Wildcats will be back in the mix again this season, as will the team they beat in the final, North Carolina.
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College basketball always provides plenty of twists and turns as freshmen learn to adapt to their new surroundings and upperclassmen fight for a last chance at glory. This season promises to provide as much drama as seasons past.
Here are five bold predictions:
1. March won't be all that mad. When The AP dropped its first poll and Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, Villanova and Oregon led the pack, a quick glance at their rosters confirmed that they begin the season as the most talented teams in the country.
We understand that doesn't necessarily mean much, especially in the one-and-done era, but the five are rich with young talent and experienced veterans. Duke brings back Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard, Matt Jones and Amile Jefferson. The Blue Devils also get talented freshmen Marques Bolden, Harry Giles, Frank Jackson and Jayson Tatum. They have so much depth that Giles, once the nation's top recruit before he suffered a litany of knee injuries, could sit out all season, and they would still be favored. (Don't worry, Duke fans, he's not going to.)
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Kentucky reloaded with a slew of McDonald's All-Americans that have an interesting blend of court vision, shooting touch and size. This might be the best team John Calipari has had since Anthony Davis' 2011-12 squad.
Kansas, Villanova and Oregon are led by upperclassmen, but the Jayhawks welcome Joshua Jackson, the nation's best freshman. Oregon's season lives and dies by the status of Dillon Brooks' foot.
Upsets are always possible as college basketball's long, unpredictable season heads into the spring, but it wouldn't be surprising to see four out of these five teams playing on the final weekend.
2. Xavier will be the most successful team in the Big East, not defending champion Villanova. It's tough to bet against a team that returns four of its best players from last year's magical NCAA Tournament run. But that's exactly what we're going to do.
Xavier, like Villanova, brings back a veteran team ready to make a long postseason run. Junior guard Trevon Bluiett returns after leading the team in points (15.1) and rebounds (6.1) per game last season. He has the potential to become a successful shooting guard in the NBA. Edmond Sumner is also back for the Musketeers. As a 6-6 sophomore point guard, Sumner has NBA scouts drooling after averaging 11.0 points per game last season.
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However, Xavier isn't just a two-man team. It also has Myles Davis, who will reclaim his starting shooting guard role, sophomore power forward Kaiser Gates and center Sean O'Mara. The deep bench is led by RaShid Gaston and J.P. Macura, who will provide the 3-point touch this team needs.
If Sumner takes the next step and guys like Macura and Gates prove to be more than just role players, Xavier could find itself in its first Final Four come March.
3. Michigan State will miss its first NCAA Tournament since 1997. Let's start with the schedule, which is brutal. The Spartans begin the season with games against Arizona, Kentucky and Duke. They also play two of among Baylor, VCU, Louisville and Wichita State at a tournament in the Bahamas. Coach Tom Izzo admitted recently that he planned the schedule thinking Deyonta Davis, who was selected by the Grizzlies with the first pick in the second round of this summer's NBA Draft, would be back, and Izzo may have thought he'd have super freshman Josh Jackson, who was a strong MSU lean for much of his recruitment.
Instead, Jackson went to Kansas, Davis bolted after his freshman season for the NBA and the only two players Izzo had on his roster over 6-8 (Gavin Schilling and Ben Carter) went down before the season with serious knee injuries. Now, four-star freshman Nick Ward is the team's only center. He's a 6-8, 255-pound monster who likes to bang in the post. But he could face conditioning issues, and the Spartans don't have anyone to back him up.
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Ward, who has drawn comparisons to former Spartan-turned-NBA star, Zach Randolph, could surprise and thrive with his unexpected upturn in minutes. But Randolph himself may not be enough to lead this team past the heavy hitters they face this season, which includes a deep and talented Big Ten.
Even with McDonald's All-Americans Miles Bridges and Joshua Langford on the wings and Eron Harris and Matt McQuaid shooting 3-pointers, this team doesn't have the size to compete for the long haul.
4. The ACC will get 10 teams in the "Big Dance." The Big East set an NCAA Tournament record in 2011 when it sent 11 teams to the NCAA Tournament. The ACC will push that record this season but fall just short. Duke, North Carolina, Louisville, Florida State, N.C. State, Virginia, Syracuse, Miami, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame will make the tournament.
As mentioned above, Duke is primed to at least make it to the Final Four. North Carolina, Louisville, Miami, Virginia and Virginia Tech have veteran leadership mixed with talented newcomers to help get them to the tournament. Out of this group, Virginia Tech is the most intriguing with last year's leading scorer and rebounder, Zach LeDay, returning for his senior season. He will be helped by senior Seth Allen and sophomore Kerry Blackshear Jr.
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Of the teams that will waver on the bubble (N.C. State, Notre Dame and Florida State), N.C. State's season is the greatest mystery. It has one of the best players in the conference in forward Abdul-Malik Abu as well as blue-chip recruits Dennis Smith Jr and 7-0 Turkish star Omer Yurtseven, who was granted eligibility by NCAA after he serves a nine-game suspension. The center played professionally in Turkey, but he will be eligible for the Wolfpack's ACC games.
N.C. State missed the tournament last season, but it could contend for a national championship if Yurtseven and Smith are the real deal.
Getting 10 teams into the NCAA Tournament will be tricky, but this conference is filled with teams that play tough schedules that will allow them to pick up key wins.
5. Rhode Island will make a deep NCAA Tournament run. How deep is deep? Well, let's put it this way: Rhode Island, which has not made an NCAA Tournament appearance since 1999, has the talent to make it to at least the Elite Eight in March should the Rams stay healthy. Star guard E.C. Matthews is back after missing virtually all of last season with a torn ACL. He could push for All-America honors as a combo guard if he can regain his athleticism on the fast break.
The Rams have a proven point guard in Jarvis Garrett, who averaged 4.7 assists per game last season, and a great slasher in Jared Terrell, the team's leading scorer last season (13.6 ppg). Rhode Island also boasts frontcourt depth headlined by senior Hassan Martin, who averaged 12.0 points and 5.6 rebounds last season.
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Also entering into the equation is shooting guard Stanford Robinson, a transfer from Indiana who was ranked as one of the top 60 players in his class coming out of high school. The Rams enjoyed a strong recruiting class that should provide big minutes from three post players (Cyril Langevine, Mike Layssard and Michael Tertsea), as well as guard Jeff Dowtin.
It's always hard to predict possible NCAA Tournament sleepers before the season starts, but Rhode Island has the right formula to make some late-season noise.