Conference tournament season is upon us, and what better way to gear up for picking your NCAA Tournament bracket than to study up on some potential at-large selections during the days leading into Selection Sunday? While only some matchups for Thursday's conference tournament action are set, we have odds on numerous early-round matchups where today's results have no bearing on tomorrow's matchups.
We'll look at two second-round tilts from the Big Ten along with one SEC and Big 12 matchup that yields betting value ahead of tomorrow's action.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Michigan vs. Rutgers Big 10 Tournament odds, picks, best bet
- Spread: Michigan -2.5 (-110); Rutgers +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 132.5 (-110); UNDER 132.5 (-110)
Eighth-seeded Michigan faces off against ninth-seeded Rutgers to begin second-round play in the Big Ten Tournament on Thursday afternoon. Both schools sit squarely on the bubble and have an opportunity to better their resumes leading into Selection Sunday.
Michigan currently sits as a 2.5-point home favorite for this neutral contest, and we like the Wolverines' chances of knocking off the struggling Scarlet Knights to set up a quarterfinal matchup against the top-seeded Boilermakers. Despite Michigan entering the Big Ten Tournament with a 6-4 record over its past 10 games, it's played competitive basketball in every game, with its four losses coming by an average of three points.
Michigan closed out conference play with two overtime road losses to Illinois (91-87, two OT), and Indiana (75-73). They were in a position to deliver a knock-out punch in both games, leading Illinois by seven with under two minutes in the first overtime period and leading Indiana by 12 points with under 13 minutes remaining. Unfortunately, they couldn't get the job done in either game, and while both losses could be looked at as meltdowns, winning on the road in the Big Ten is as tough as it comes. The fact Juwan Howard's crew can take multi-possession leads in the second half points to a team that can compete with anyone in the conference and shouldn't be overlooked as the No. 8 seed.
Since the start of February, Bart Torvik's college basketball ratings have the Wolverines' power ranked as the 16th best in college basketball, while their first-round opponent, Rutgers, sits at No. 95. While Rutgers remains one of the better defensive teams in the nation (fourth in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric), getting consistent production on the offensive end of the court has been a struggle. Rutgers has been held to under 60 points in four of their past five games, with one of those instances coming in a 58-45 road loss to Michigan on Feb. 23.
In that game, Michigan held Rutgers to a lackluster 0.74 points per possession. There's a good chance Rutgers' offense struggles to score consistently in Thursday's rematch, especially when their most utilized offensive option, center Cliff Omoruyi, can be neutralized by Michigan big men Hunter Dickinson and Tarris Reed. Lay the points and back the team in better form to advance to the quarterfinals.
Best Bet: Michigan -2.5 (-110)
Illinois vs. Penn State Big 10 Tournament odds, picks, best bet
- Spread: Illinois -2.5 (-110); Penn State +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 141.5 (-110); UNDER 141.5 (-110)
Sticking in the Big Ten, seventh-seeded Illinois looks to avoid a season sweep against 10th-seeded Penn State. The Nittany Lions have likely positioned themselves on the right side of the bubble for the time being, winning five of their past six games to finish Big Ten play with a 10-10 record.
Penn State's one of the highest variance teams in college basketball due to its reliance on the three-pointer, making it a tough team to gauge on a game-to-game basis. The Nittany Lions attempted a three-pointer on 47.8 percent of their field goals in conference play (first in Big 10), as their five-out offense attempts to space the floor by screening for shooters on the perimeter.
In the Nittany Lions' two wins over the Fighting Illini, they made 12 threes in each win, shooting a combined 46.1 percent from deep (24-of-52). Illinois doesn't have an overly terrible perimeter defense, and while those two shooting outputs aren't exactly outliers, it'll be tough for the Nittany Lions to maintain that type of three-point shooting output on Thursday night.
Factoring in a less efficient three-point shooting effort from the Nittany Lions coupled with an Illinois offense that's going to consistently attack Penn State's interior defense, the Fighting Illini are in a solid position to advance to the quarterfinals. Illinois owns the Big Ten's best two-point scoring rate (53.7 percent), while Penn State's defense is allowing conference opponents to connect on 51.9 percent of their two-point shots (13th out of 14th in Big Ten). Illinois avoids the season sweep and makes the Nittany Lions sweat things out a bit more on Selection Sunday.
Best Bet: Illinois -2.5 (-110)
Auburn vs. Arkansas SEC Tournament odds, picks, best bet
- Spread: Auburn -1 (-110); Arkansas +1 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 144 (-110); UNDER 144 (-110)
In the SEC, seventh-seeded Auburn looks to add another quality win to their resume, matching up against 10th-seeded Arkansas in the second round. The Tigers look to be on the right side of the bubble after taking down Tennessee at home on senior day, but another Quad 1 win over Arkansas (18th in NET) would inch them closer to lock status.
Rather than getting involved on the side in a game priced essentially at a pick 'em, we're focusing our attention on the total. Both Arkansas and Auburn ended SEC regular-season play ranking in the top-six of the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, and their ability to limit each other's effectiveness on the offensive end of the floor should result in this game falling UNDER the total.
Arkansas and Auburn also both rank within the top six of the SEC in defensive two-point scoring rate, so it's unlikely each offense consistently scores from the interior. Neither offense is great from the perimeter either, shooting below the conference average from three-point range. Expect Thursday's matchup to be an evenly matched rock fight, one that results in a lower-scoring final score.
Best Bet: UNDER 144 (-110)
Baylor vs. Iowa State Big 12 Tournament odds, picks, best bet
- Spread: Baylor -4.5 (-110); Iowa State +4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 134.5 (-110); UNDER 134.5 (-110)
Baylor and Iowa State are safely in the projected field of 68, but a deep run in this week's Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship can help both schools move up seed lines. After Iowa State took down Baylor at home at the start of conference play, the Cyclones went into Waco and defeated the Bears by 15 points this past Saturday, essentially leading wire-to-wire.
The Cyclones now find themselves as 4.5-point underdogs for this neutral site rematch, as the betting market's anticipating a bounce-back performance from the Bears. Baylor's interior defense isn't as dominant as a typical Scott Drew-coached team, as the Bears ended Big 12 play allowing a 56.9-percent defensive two-point scoring rate, good for last in the conference. The Cyclones were able to bully the Bears from two-point range on Saturday, connecting on 62.5 percent of their two-point shots (20-of-32).
Despite Baylor's uninspiring interior defense on senior day, we're expecting a better defensive output during Thursday's rematch, resulting in the Bears securing a multi-possession victory. For as much as the Bears struggle on defense, an offense ranking second in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric (121.6 points per 100 possessions), makes up for those deficiencies. The Bears can fill it up from deep, boasting the league's best three-point scoring rate (37.3 percent) as guards Adam Flagler (41.1% from three), LJ Cryer (42.1% from three), and Keyonte George (34.9% from three) can get hot in a hurry.
Iowa State's defense prides itself on takeaways and turning defense into offense, sporting the nation's second-best defensive turnover rate (25.3 percent). While Baylor did struggle with turnover issues in both losses to Iowa State, we expect the Bears to take better care of the basketball in Thursday's rematch, entering postseason play with the third-best offensive turnover rate in the Big 12 (17.3 percent). A better defensive showing from the interior coupled with fewer offensive turnovers should lend itself to the Bears advancing to the semifinals.
