With sports betting now legal in 75 percent of the United States, it makes sense that the 2023 NCAA March Madness Tournament has garnered an unprecedented level of betting interest. The majority of gamblers stick to the moneylines and spreads of individual matchups or assemble parlays or teasers, while most casual hoops fans enter bracket contests or tournament pools. Below, we'll specifically dive into the over/under market, using recent scoring trends and data analysis to give us a betting advantage on some Round 1 matchup totals.
You probably won't be shocked to know that on the whole, scoring is up and defense is down. We'll adjust the averages once the winners of Tuesday's 'First Four' games get added into the bracket, but as of right now the 62 teams locked into the Madness scored an average of 75.3 points this season. Not surprisingly, perennial offensive powerhouse Gonzaga paced the nation with a whopping 86.5 points per game, and 17 total teams cleared 78 points per outing.
Let's check out each tournament squad's scoring rank, as well as their per-game averages.
MORE NCAA TOURNAMENT BETTING:
Odds | Favorites & Sleepers | Props | Round 1 Best Bets
| Rank | School | PPG |
| 1 | Gonzaga | 86.5 |
| 3 | Arizona | 82.7 |
| 4 | Oral Roberts | 82.5 |
| 5 | Alabama | 82.2 |
| 6 | Xavier | 81.4 |
| 11 | Furman | 80.4 |
| 13 | Charleston | 80.3 |
| 14 | Iowa | 80.2 |
| 15 | Marquette | 79.9 |
| 17 | Memphis | 79.8 |
| 18 | Missouri | 79.5 |
| 19 | Miami (FL) | 79.4 |
| 21 | Connecticut | 78.5 |
| 24 | NC State | 78.2 |
| 25 | TX A&M-CC | 78.2 |
| 26 | Fla Atlantic | 78.2 |
| 27 | Colgate | 78.2 |
| 28 | Providence | 78.1 |
| 30 | Texas | 77.9 |
| 32 | Utah State | 77.7 |
| 35 | Baylor | 77.2 |
| 40 | Creighton | 76.6 |
| 43 | Iona | 76.4 |
| 45 | W Virginia | 76.3 |
| 58 | Kent State | 75.7 |
| 59 | Pittsburgh | 75.6 |
| 63 | LA Lafayette | 75.6 |
| 66 | Kansas St | 75.5 |
| 71 | TX Christian | 75.2 |
| 73 | Kentucky | 75.1 |
| 74 | Indiana | 75.0 |
| 76 | Houston | 75.0 |
| 78 | Princeton | 75.0 |
| 79 | Kansas | 74.9 |
| 86 | Illinois | 74.7 |
| 92 | Arkansas | 74.4 |
| 99 | UCLA | 73.9 |
| 101 | Drake | 73.8 |
| 103 | Kennesaw St | 73.7 |
| 107 | Howard | 73.6 |
| 112 | Texas A&M | 73.2 |
| 116 | Purdue | 73.1 |
| 117 | NC-Asheville | 73.0 |
| 118 | USC | 72.8 |
| 121 | Auburn | 72.7 |
| 127 | Duke | 72.5 |
| 136 | Penn State | 72.3 |
| 137 | Grand Canyon | 72.3 |
| 141 | Vermont | 72.2 |
| 150 | UCSB | 71.8 |
| 154 | Tennessee | 71.8 |
| 156 | Boise State | 71.7 |
| 160 | VCU | 71.4 |
| 163 | San Diego St | 71.3 |
| 169 | Montana St | 71.0 |
| 171 | Saint Mary's | 71.0 |
| 183 | Maryland | 70.4 |
| 188 | Michigan St | 70.2 |
| 234 | Iowa State | 68.4 |
| 253 | Virginia | 67.8 |
| 254 | Northwestern | 67.7 |
| 271 | N Kentucky | 67.2 |
| Average: | 75.3 |
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That chart alone gives you an idea of why we're seeing so many point totals in the range of 140-150. It's not just because people love rooting for points — honestly, who do you know that loves betting the UNDER? — it's also that March Madness pits the majority of the best offenses and/or the hottest teams into the Big Dance. Then, it shoots them out of a cannon and launches them into a frenzied, frenetic pace with seemingly endless adrenaline, and, you guessed it, we see some points explosions.
That doesn't mean you should pound the OVER for every game. That's what sportsbooks want you to do! Just look at the way the NFL obliterated the betting public who pounded the OVER in prime-time games most of the season. Betting on what you want to see is a bad gambling strategy. Consistently wagering on what you're likely to see is how you become a successful bettor.
How can we assess what we might see? Well, we dive into the advanced data, pore over recent scoring trends, and analyze split stats. We look not just at the combined scoring averages of teams, but also the combined points per game those teams surrendered throughout the season. We'll check how well teams fared on the road and on neutral courts and see which teams finished the season on hot or cold streaks.
Got all that? It's okay if you don't — nobody wants to take notes or listen to lectures during March Madness. You want the answers! So, let's break you off the CliffNotes version and give you a Round 1 study guide containing all the best over/under bets out of the gate. We can't promise these will all hit. After all, the odds of hitting on every pick and finishing the tournament with a perfect bracket is 1 in 9.2 quintillion, and the odds of nailing even 10 consecutive over/unders is about as likely. But similar to how baseball players are great if they succeed three times out of 10, bettors are successful if they hit seven times out of 10.
Let's get to it. Here are the best overs and unders for the opening round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here
Best Over/Under Bets for 2023 NCAA Tournament First-Round Matchups
Duke (5) vs. Oral Roberts (12): OVER 145.5 (-110)
Lots of folks expect 12-seeds to upset five-seeds in the first round, and while it has been known to happen, we're not biting on this one, as Duke team has been one of the hottest programs in the nation over the past month. We're also not buying too much into the Blue Devils' most recent game, a 59-49 defensive battle over Virginia to win the ACC Tournament. Virginia is one of the toughest defenses in the NCAA, allowing just 60.3 points per game on the year. In the two games leading up to that title game, Jon Scheyer's squad put up scoring totals of 96 and 85, respectively, against pretty good Pittsburgh and Miami (FL) teams.
Now Duke draws an Oral Roberts team that arguably serves as the most potent offense of all the double-digit seeds in this tournament. The Golden Eagles averaged 82.5 points per game on the year and dismantled North Dakota State 92-58 in the Summit League Championship. They also surrendered an average of 72.5 points in each of their two prior games St. Thomas and North Dakota squads that aren't even a fraction as good as the Blue Devils. So, while we don't see Paul Mills' squad ending Kyle Filipowski and the Dukies' nine-game winning streak, we do envision this one being quite the display of offensive firepower.
Prediction: Duke 79, ORU 72
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Memphis (8) vs. Florida Atlantic (9): UNDER 152.5 (-105)
Sometimes, you have to look not just at recent scoring trends but also sharp betting data and line movement. Our friends at BetQL offer all these resources as well as betting trends, model projections, and advanced analytics that will make you wonder why you didn't sign up sooner. A quick glance at BetQL's Line Movement tracker reveals that Memphis-FAU's total opened at 150 but has incrementally inched up to nearly 153 within a few days. That's because the betting public sees that Kendric Davis and the Tigers put 94 points on Tulane in the AAC Tournament, and FAU had a 103-point game earlier this month.
But let's not be reactionary — Memphis is averaging just over 76 points in the five games leading up to March Madness, while the Owls haven't exceeded 78 in the four games since that 104-point explosion. Penny Hardaway's Memphis defense has surrendered an average of under 72 points per game, and FAU's stifling D ranked 39th in the nation at just 65.3 points allowed per game. Even more important, Dusty May's squad has not faced a ranked opponent all season, so the Conference USA darling will have its hands full with a red-hot Tigers squad that just beat Houston to win the AAC Championship. Memphis won that game 75-65, and we wouldn't be surprised if this game ended even lower.
Prediction: Memphis 70, FAU 62
EXPERT PICKS:
DeCourcy (Alabama) | Bender (Kansas) | Fagan (Marquette) | Pohnl (Kansas)
Gonzaga (3) vs. Grand Canyon (14): OVER 156.5 (-105)
We know this total seems massive, but the 68 percent of sharp bettors going OVER don't seem to be slowing its rise anytime soon. Gonzaga leads the entire nation with a scoring average of 86.5 points per game, and it ranks 267th of 363 in points allowed and 168th in defensive rating. Mark Few's squad is the quintessential 21st-century basketball program, and it regularly paces the nation in scoring.
That's not the only allure here, as the OVER has hit in a whopping 25 of Grand Canyon's 33 games this season (75.8-percent OVER percentage, highest in the NCAA). That's partly because the Antelopes can score! They have posted 82 points or more in four of six games so far in March. It's also because they sometimes struggle to contain solid offenses, as shown by the 73.3 points per game they have surrendered over their past three contests.
Imagine what Drew Timme and this 27-5 Bulldogs team — averaging 86 points per game over its past nine games — can do to Bryce Drew's litte Antelopes. The Zags have hit 97 points 12 times since the start of the 2022-23 season — 97 points 12 times!? They also put 93 on Georgia State in the first round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament. We're bandwagoning the OVER here and can't imagine having it any other way.
Prediction: Gonzaga 89, Grand Canyon 74
MORE: Using KenPom's advanced stats & "4 factors" to pick winners
Best of the rest of the over/under Bets
OVER: Arizona-Princeton (154.5) — These squads combined to average 157.7 points per game this year, and their games have combined to go OVER 55.8 percent of the time (34-27). Princeton is not your average Ivy, and Azuolas Tubelis and the Wildcats don't hold back when they get going offensively.
UNDER: Virginia-Furman (131.5) — Big surprise: Virginia plays some of the best defense in the country. The Cavaliers haven't allowed 60 points to any of their last five opponents, a group that includes Duke, UNC, and Clemson. Furman has not faced a ranked opponent all season, so the Paladins are about to get punched in the mouth.
