The American Athletic Conference is coming off one of its best seasons since its inception in 2013. Three teams — Cincinnati, Wichita State and Houston — finished the year in the AP Top 25, and four players were taken in the NBA Draft.
The 2018-19 preseason outlook, however, seems a little more bleak. All three of those contenders lost significant pieces from their prosperous seasons. The top of the conference seems more open, which is good news for teams like Memphis and UCF, who do return some key players.
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Less apparent star power makes it less likely the conference will garner the same attention on a national level as it did last season, but the AAC still possesses a handful of teams that could make noise late into March. The Bearcats are even in Sporting News' preseason top 25, at No. 23.
Sporting News previews the AAC 2018-19 season with predictions, a sleeper team, an X-factor, player of the year hopefuls, a coach with the most to prove and the biggest regular season games.
AAC Predictions:
1. Cincinnati
2. Houston
3. Memphis
4. UCF
5. UConn
6. Wichita State
7. Tulsa
8. SMU
9. Tulane
10. Temple
11. East Carolina
12. South Florida
AAC Champion: Cincinnati
The Bearcats are a far cry from the team that they were last season, when they won the regular season and AAC tournament championship behind conference player of the year Gary Clark. With Clark, as well as Jacob Evans and Kyle Washington, out of the picture, Mick Cronin will have to rebuild the core of his team. Guards Jarron Cumberland, Cane Broome, and Justin Jenifer are all back, as are reserves Keith Williams, Trevor Moore, and Tre Scott. This may not be the same Bearcats team that finished No. 6 in the final AP Poll last season, but it’s a group that is still talented and well-coached, making it capable of a second-straight conference championship.
AAC X-Factor: Wichita State’s freshmen
It’s a rebuilding year for Gregg Marshall and the Shockers, who lost all eight players who played in at least 30 games last season. Markis McDuffie and Samajae Haynes-Jones are still around to provide veteran leadership to a team that welcomes the conference's second-best 2018 recruiting class, according to 247Sports' Composite rankings.
Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker were freshmen when they helped lead WSU to the Final Four in 2013. It will be a hard task to replicate for the likes of Morris Udeze, Erik Stevenson, Chance Moore and others in the class, but a strong first season could set the groundwork for another successful core for Marshall.
AAC Sleeper team: UConn
The Huskies haven’t been able to come anywhere close to triumphs of the 2011 or 2014 national championship teams, but the 2018-19 season presents an opportunity to take a step in the right direction. Dan Hurley was hired in the offseason as the team’s new head coach, replacing Kevin Ollie, who was fired after back-to-back losing seasons. Hurley went 113-82 at Rhode Island, and took the Rams to the second round of the NCAA Tournament each of the last two years.
Jalen Adams fits the mold of a Kemba Walker- or Shabazz Napier-type player who could take command of this Huskies team. It will be a matter of whether the Huskies' secondary players step up, namely Christian Vital and Alterique Gilbert — who has had trouble staying healthy but has impressed when he’s played. A national championship may not be in the cards for the Huskies this season, but significant improvement could put them in contention in a wide open AAC.
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Five biggest AAC regular season games:
Wichita State at Memphis, Jan. 3: The conference slate begins with two teams that appear to be heading in different directions. With Jeremiah Martin, Kyvon Davenport and a new coaching staff, the Tigers look poised to finish near the top of the AAC. The same can’t necessarily be said for the youthful Shockers. This game will be a good litmus test — for both teams — on their seasons.
Houston at SMU, Jan. 16: One of the few in-state conference rivalries could provide an opportunity for a big AAC upset, as SMU isn’t among the conference favorites but still has a capable roster.
Cincinnati at Houston, Feb. 10: This will be one of the few conference games that will be aired on ESPN, and for good reason. It’s a rematch of the 2018 AAC Championship, and will feature arguably the two best teams in the conference once again.
UCF at Cincinnati, Feb. 21: Another opportunity for a conference underdog to show they can play with the highest level of competition. Playing the Bearcats on the road is a tall task, but we'll see if the Knights are up for it.
Memphis at Cincinnati, March 2: This contest could have big implications for both the AAC and the NCAA Tournament. Memphis could force its way into the field of 68, and a win over Cincinnati would be a huge resume booster. If the Tigers defy those expectations, this could be for the No. 1 seed in the AAC Tournament.
AAC Player of the Year hopefuls:
Jarron Cumberland, G, Cincinnati: Cumberland took a back seat to Gary Clark, Jacob Evans and others on the Bearcats last year, but several departures should thrust him into the spotlight and allow him to break out. He averaged 11.5 points per game in his sophomore season, including 22 points per game in the Bearcats' two NCAA tournament matchups.
Jalen Adams, G, Connecticut: Adams has seen a huge jump in offensive progression in each of his first three seasons with the Huskies, including an average of 18.1 ppg last year. He made first team All-AAC as a sophomore and second team All-AAC as a junior. The offense will run through him.
Corey Davis Jr., G, Houston: Davis quickly made his mark on the Cougars offense after transferring from San Jacinto Junior College last year, averaging 13.1 ppg and shooting 43 percent from 3-point range while establishing himself as a legitimate secondary scoring option to Rob Gray. With Gray — who was on the first-team All-AAC last season — out of the picture, Davis should be Houston’s primary option on offense.
Jeremiah Martin, G, Memphis: Martin was second last season in the AAC in ppg (18.9), despite missing seven games due to injury. Although he underwent emergency hernia surgery at the end of August, he should be good to go before the season begins. He doesn’t just score, as Martin led the Tigers in assists (3.8) and was third in rebounds (4.3) last year. As long as he stays healthy, Martin has the potential to produce at an All-AAC level.
AAC coach with the most to prove: Johnny Dawkins, UCF
Dawkins had minor success at Stanford, his previous coaching stop, making one NCAA Tournament appearance in eight years. He has yet to get UCF off the ground — going 43-25 with one NIT appearance in his first two seasons — but this may be his year to do it. The Knights bring back seven of their eight top scorers from last season, and the lack of a clear conference favorite provides an opportunity to climb the ranks.