2017 NBA Draft withdrawal deadline: Evaluating winners and losers of pro decisions

Andy Wittry

2017 NBA Draft withdrawal deadline: Evaluating winners and losers of pro decisions image

Wednesday marked the deadline for college players to withdraw from the NBA Draft if they wished to return to school next season. The collegiate talent pool for the draft is now set and college rosters are beginning to crystalize. 

National championship game participants North Carolina and Gonzaga were impacted by draft decisions, while potential preseason favorites such as Arizona, Kentucky and Michigan State were able to retain some of their top players.

MORE: Hamidou Diallo returns to Kentucky

The 2017-18 college basketball season won't tip off for roughly six more months but we now know which of the sport's biggest stars will be returning to their respective college campuses this fall and which are moving on to the professional ranks. With that, here's our evaluation of which college teams are the winners and losers of the major stay-or-go NBA Draft decisions this offseason.

First, some ground rules. Some players (e.g. Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, Jayson Tatum, etc.) were destined to be one-and-done players from the moment they enrolled in college so it's unfair to label their former schools as "losers" in this discussion just because they successfully recruited elite talent. However, if a likely first-round pick, or even lottery-level talent, chose to delay the NBA for another season (e.g. Michigan State's Miles Bridges), that's a huge win for the program.

MORE: Wilson's departure, Wagner's return a win-win for Michigan

These evaluations are being made with consideration of individual players' perceived draft stocks at the time of their decisions and this is a reflection of how their decisions impacted college teams, not whether or not players made the "right" decision. 

Winners

Arizona

Returning: G Allonzo Trier, G Rawle Alkins

Departing: F Lauri Markkanen, F Chance Comanche, G Kobi Simmons

Given Lauri Markkanen’s status as a one-and-done talent destined for the NBA Draft lottery, Arizona went 2-for-2 in bringing back its most important players who had legitimate stay-or-go decisions: Allonzo Trier and Rawle Alkins. 

Trier didn’t file as an early entry for the draft, opting instead to return to school for his junior season, a rarity for former five-star recruits in today’s college game. After missing the first 19 games last season due to a PED suspension, Trier, who averaged 17.2 points per game as a sophomore, will hope for a drama-free junior campaign after averagin. Alkins, also a former five-star guard, tested the NBA Draft waters before announcing his return to Tucson. 

The Wildcats didn’t emerge from the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline unscathed, surprisingly losing forward Chance Comanche, as well as freshman guard Kobi Simmons, but they wind up winners, given the overwhelming likelihood that Markkanen was NBA-bound. Arizona will enter the 2017-18 season as one of the preseason favorites to cut down the nets, thanks to a core of Trier, Alkins, point guard Parker Jackson-Cartwright, center Dusan Ristic and one of the country’s best recruiting classes, headlined by five-star forward DeAndre Ayton. 

Duke

Returning: G Grayson Allen

Departing: F Jayson Tatum, G Luke Kennard, F Harry Giles, G Frank Jackson

Duke and Kentucky are in a class of their own when it comes to recruiting. Since 2014, those two schools have been ranked, in some order, No. 1 and No. 2 in 247Sports' composite recruiting class rankings.

What does that mean for the Blue Devils and Wildcats when it comes to NBA Draft decisions? It usually means that regardless of their players' stay-or-go decisions, they'll have rosters filled with former highly ranked recruits. Any player who passes on a chance to jump to the NBA for another year of college is just the cherry on top.

Jayson Tatum and Harry Giles were at one time projected by some prognosticators to be the top two picks in the 2017 NBA Draft, making them clear one-and-done candidates. Luke Kennard had a breakout sophomore season and turned himself into a first-round draft pick. Whether Frank Jackson's decision to remain in the NBA Draft was prompted by the knowledge that No. 1 point guard recruit Trevon Duval was committing to Duke, or Jackson's departure cemented Duval's college choice is somewhat irrelevant. Duke is probably better with Duval running the team and he'll have a bonafide All-America level scorer next to him in Grayson Allen, who bypassed the NBA in favor of spending his senior year in Durham.

Gonzaga

Returning: F Johnathan Williams

Departing: G Nigel Williams-Goss, F Zach Collins

Gonzaga's national championship run last season was a perfect storm of high-level transfers flooding Spokane, Wash. Big man Przemek Karnowski was granted a fifth-year of eligibility and five-star forward/center Zach Collins averaged 10 points and 5.9 rebounds as a freshman. But that 37-2 record season comes with a price – the reality that the Bulldogs may never have a team as talented as their 2016-17 squad. A tournament run like the one they put together usually results in a few players jumping to the next level.

MORE: Pitt wrong to restrict Cam Johnson's transfer

Collins is projected to be a late lottery pick and Williams-Goss, at nearly 23 years old, said the following this spring: “I feel like mentally and physically I’ve done pretty much all I could do at this level," according to The Spokesman-Review. His departure is understandable, if not expected. 

But Johnathan Williams' decision to return to school could keep the Bulldogs in the mix as a top-25-level team next season, preventing a precipitous dropoff after a historic 2016-17 season. 

Kansas

Returning: G Svi Mykhailiuk

Departing: G Josh Jackson

Svi Mykhailiuk hasn't reached Perry Ellis levels of "That guy feels like he's been in college forever" but it feels like he's been in college forever. DraftExpress projected him as a future lottery pick in September 2014 but Mykhailiuk decided he isn't ready to leave Lawrence, Kan. The Jayhawks will look fairly different next season with personnel losses to graduation (Frank Mason III, Landen Lucas), NBA draft early entry (Josh Jackson) and player transfers (Carlton Bragg Jr., Dwight Coleby), leaving shots and minutes available for Mykhailiuk. Jackson will be a top-five pick, at worst, and Kansas knew it would only be getting one year of his services. The return of Mykhailiuk as a scoring option on the wing will prove to be valuable alongside guards Devonte' Graham and Mississippi State transfer Malik Newman.

Kentucky

Returning: G Hamidou Diallo

Departing: G De'Aaron Fox, G Malik Monk, F Bam Adebayo, G Isaiah Briscoe, C Isaac Humphries

You know that Kentucky basketball is on another level than most programs in the country when the Wildcats can be labeled "winners" after bringing back just one of their six players who submitted early entry forms to the NBA Draft. Kentucky is essentially playing with house money, meaning any borderline NBA prospect that returns to Lexington gives coach John Calipari another year out of a former four- or five-star recruit, who returns to a roster full of other four- and five-star recruits.

De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk are locks to be top-10 picks and Adebayo is a likely first-round selection. Based on his comments at the NBA Draft Combine, Briscoe sounded like he was ready to move on from college and Isaac Humphries appears comfortable with playing professional basketball somewhere next season, even if it's not in the NBA. That leaves guard Hamidou Diallo, who enrolled at Kentucky in January and redshirted during the spring semester before flirting with the prospect of being the Wildcats' first "none-and-done" player. 

Diallo, a 6-5 wing, hasn't seen his 19th birthday and he already has a 44.5-inch vertical and 6-11 wingspan, according to DraftExpress. He's the highest-ranked recruit in Kentucky's top-ranked 2017 recruiting class, according to 247Sports, which features six five-star players and a pair of four-star prospects. 

Michigan State

Returning: F Miles Bridges

Departing: None

The Spartans didn't have a single player submit early entry forms for the 2017 NBA Draft. But that doesn't mean there wasn't a major stay-or-go decision to be made on the Spartans' roster. That's because forward Miles Bridges, a projected lottery pick if he had entered the 2017 draft, announced his return to East Lansing in April. 

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In terms of both production at the college level and professional draft stock, Bridges is arguably the biggest single returner to the college ranks. 

“I can’t wait for next year," Bridges said at his announcement, according to the Detroit Free Press. "I have personal goals here. I want to win a national championship.”

Seton Hall

Returning: F Angel Delgado

Departing: None

The Pirates only had one player, Delgado, declare for the NBA Draft but he announced his return to Seton Hall Monday. Besides Purdue’s Caleb Swanigan, there may not have been a bigger statistical contributor testing the NBA waters than Delgado, who averaged a double-double last season with 15.2 points and 13.0 rebounds per game. One of the key figures in coach Kevin Willard’s 2014 recruiting class, Delgado will anchor a Pirates team that returns essentially all of its major contributors from last season. 

Texas A&M

Returning: F Robert Williams

Departing: None

File Texas A&M in the same category as Michigan State. Neither team had a player declare as an early entry for the NBA Draft but both schools could have lost a potential lottery pick. Freshman forward Robert Williams' decision to not test the NBA Draft waters was one of the more surprising decisions among draftniks. He averaged 11.8 points and 8.1 rebounds per game last season and DraftExpress pegged Williams as a lottery pick in the 2017 draft for a month-long stretch this spring. The site now has him projected as a top-five pick next summer.

UCLA

Returning: G Aaron Holiday, F Thomas Welsh

Departing: G Lonzo Ball, F T.J. Leaf, F Ike Anigbogu

Last season UCLA had one of the most offensively gifted college basketball rosters in the last decade and a half. The Bruins had the fourth-most efficient offense since 2002, according to kenpom.com. A team like that is going to be supremely talented and it's no surprise its players will strike when the iron is hot. Lonzo Ball is a projected top-three pick in the NBA Draft, Ike Anigbogu could be selected shortly after the lottery and T.J. Leaf will most likely be taken in the first round.

MORE: Former European star exits, draft returns to NC State

While UCLA loses its top four scorers from last season – two to graduation and two to the NBA Draft (Leaf and Ball) – Steve Alford will have Aaron Holiday and Thomas Welsh as two cornerstones for his team next season. 

Xavier

Returning: F Trevon Bluiett

Departing: G Edmond Sumner

Following a surprise run to the Elite Eight, Xavier batted .500 in keeping its players who had NBA Draft decisions – point guard Edmond Sumner signed with an agent and forward Trevon Bluiett decided to return for his senior season. Of the two, Bluiett's decision is more impactful. A strong senior campaign could push him into second place all-time on Xavier's career scoring list as he'll be the primary scoring threat on a Musketeers team that should be featured prominently in many preseason top-25 polls.

Sumner's size and athleticism for a point guard make him a rare commodity in the college game, but his health status would have been up in the air entering next season if he returned to Xavier, after he tore his ACL in January. The Musketeers learned how to play their best basketball of the season, reaching the Elite Eight, without Sumner and they'll add top-30 point guard recruit Paul Scruggs to their roster in the fall. 

OG Anunoby-011117-GETTY-FTR

Losers

Indiana

Returning: G Robert Johnson

Departing: F OG Anunoby, F Thomas Bryant, G James Blackmon Jr.

Hearing that Robert Johnson’s name was among those on the NBA Draft early entrants list was a surprise to many Indiana fans and it seemed likely that he would return to Bloomington for his senior season. While he’ll be an important piece of the puzzle in Archie Miller’s first season in Bloomington, Indiana will feel the loss of its trio of departures. 

MORE: Four-star forward Jontay Porter picks Mizzou

OG Anunoby was probably a safe bet to leave for the NBA after his preseason hype and season-ending knee injury. Thomas Bryant admitted he "probably" would have entered the draft regardless of who was coaching Indiana next season, according to the Indianapolis Star. James Blackmon Jr., however, faced more difficult decisions regarding his professional future. At best, he'll be a late second-round pick. 

Miller will have to replace three of Indiana's top-four per-game scorers from last season. Another season out of Blackmon Jr., who could have potentially led the Big Ten in scoring, or Bryant, who could have potentially improved his stock if he held out for what is perceived as a weaker 2018 NBA Draft, would have gone a long way for the Hoosiers. 

Louisville

Returning: G Deng Adel

Departing: G Donovan Mitchell, F Jaylen Johnson

With three players who elected to test the NBA Draft waters, Louisville had a large variance of potential preseason outlooks, depending on the decisions of Donovan Mitchell, Deng Adel and Jaylen Johnson. With all three in the fold next season, the Cardinals could have made a case to be the preseason No. 1 team, led by an All-America-level guard in Mitchell. Instead, Louisville will have to take consolation in the return of Adel, who could be the team's leading scorer next season.

The Cardinals should still be very competitive in the ACC but they'll be hard-pressed to rank among the nation's elite without Mitchell and Johnson. 

Michigan

Returning: F Moritz Wagner

Departing: F D.J. Wilson

Michigan was primed to have a dangerous frontcourt next season with veteran duo of D.J. Wilson and Moritz Wagner, who both have a unique blend of size and outside shooting, until Wilson decided to stay in the NBA Draft. A breakout performer for the Wolverines last season, Wilson averaged 11 points per game as a redshirt sophomore and closed the spring with a strong March. As a fringe first-round prospect, he could have improved his draft stock with another year in Ann Arbor.

Michigan now has to replace three starters, two of its top-three bench players and roughly 70 percent of the team's scoring from last season. Keeping both Wilson and Wagner would have gone a long way in maintaining the program's momentum that was built in the final month of last season.

North Carolina

Returning: G Joel Berry II, G/F Theo Pinson

Departing: F Justin Jackson, F Tony Bradley

North Carolina's hopes of a third-consecutive national championship game appearance likely hinged on the decision of Bradley, a former top-30 recruit who played behind seniors Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks last season. Bradley played limited minutes (14.6 mpg) as a freshman but his per-40 numbers were impressive – 19.5 points and 14.1 rebounds – and he would've been a focal point for the Tar Heels next season. 

DECOURCY: Bradley's one-and-done exit won't help UNC

North Carolina is now forced to replace four of its top five scorers from a national title-winning team with little frontcourt depth returning, other than former Elite Eight hero Luke Maye.

Jackson could be taken in the back end of the NBA Draft lottery, making his pro decision an easy one, while Berry and Pinson would've been late second-round picks, at best. 

Purdue

Returning: C Isaac Haas, F Vince Edwards

Departing: F Caleb Swanigan

Let's start by acknowledging that a Purdue frontcourt of Haas and Edwards will be incredibly formidable and the Boilermakers will be competitive in the Big Ten next season. After a 2016-17 campaign in which Purdue won the Big Ten regular season title by two games and Swanigan won Big Ten Player of the Year honors after averaging 18.5 points and 12.5 rebounds per game, it would be hard for Swanigan's draft stock to ever be much higher. However, his best-case scenario is being selected in the late first round, but he could likely be drafted anywhere in the 25-45 range. 

MORE: Texas' Andrew Jones withdraws from draft

While Purdue should be good next season, it'll hard for them to be great without Swanigan, making the 2017-18 campaign a "What if?" season for Boilermaker fans as they bid farewell to "Biggie."

AP All-America returners

Of the 15 AP First, Second and Third Team All-America honorees from last season, 13 were underclassmen. Eleven of them signed with agents for the NBA Draft, leaving Notre Dame's Bonzie Colson and Wisconsin's Ethan Happ, both selected to the third team, as the only AP All-Americans returning to play college basketball next season. 

Andy Wittry