Zach Edey has been the best player in college basketball over the past two seasons and it's been impossible to miss him during this year's NCAA Tournament, both because of his size and production. He's scored 120 points, grabbed 65 rebounds and blocked 10 shots in 135 minutes of play in leading Purdue to the Final Four.
Depending on who you ask, that makes Edey a lottery pick prospect. Others believe he's a surefire NBA bust.
You can find very smart basketball people on either side of that argument, making Edey by far the most polarizing player in the 2024 draft class.
Here's why there's such a jarring divide in Edey's evaluation.
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Why Zach Edey should be a lottery pick
Edey is obviously a massive player. At 7-4 and 300 pounds with a 7-10 wingspan, his sheer size makes him impossible to stop near the basket.
That has made Edey an insanely productive college player. He's averaging 25 points and 12.2 rebounds for Purdue this season, shooting a blistering 62.4 percent from the field.
If teams don't send a ton of help at Edey when he has the ball in the post, it's game over — he is going to power his way to the rim and score. That happens a lot because he is a superb screen-setter who can roll to the basket and use his strength to seal off pretty much anyone. He has good touch, particularly on his righty hook shots.
Zach Edey had 30 points, 21 rebounds, 3 blocks, and 2 assists against overmatched Grambling, helping Purdue advance in the NCAA Tournament. The projected No. 15 pick in the draft left little doubt about the outcome of this game with his dominant play on both ends of the floor. pic.twitter.com/pnZzFjuZmq
— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) March 23, 2024
When teams do bring double teams, Edey is an improved passer. He can make basic reads to kick out to 3-point shooters.
Edey is also a good rim protector, averaging 2.2 blocks per game. Purdue mostly uses him in a deep drop, similar to what the Bucks do with center Brook Lopez. Lopez, who struggles with lateral movement as well, was able to utilize that role to a runner-up Defensive Player of the Year finish last season and has made two All-Defensive teams.
Edey is going to score and rebound at a plus rate once he gets drafted. His size will make him an impact player from day one — only Victor Wembanyama and Boban Marjanovic can match him in the height department. Both have given defenses extreme problems due to their unique size.
Zach Edey's best mock draft positions
| Board | Position |
|---|---|
| ESPN | 14 |
| SB Nation | 18 |
| The Athletic | 21 |
MORE: Why comparing 7-4 Zach Edey to Yao Ming is lazy
Why Zach Edey's game won't translate to the NBA
Edey's game is so heavily predicated on post-ups that there are a lot of people who feel like it won't translate to the next level. Those plays simply don't exist much in the NBA because, while they still work as a change of pace, it's a pick-and-roll league.
Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid lead the league with about six looks out of the post per game. They are the exceptions — almost everyone else either doesn't take any or limits themselves to one or two a night.
There have been other terrific college players in Edey's mold that have not been able to impact the league. Luka Garza and Drew Timme were both the best players in college basketball thanks to their dominant post play. Garza was taken 52nd in the 2021 NBA Draft and has logged just 78 career games played. Timme went undrafted, eventually signing with the Bucks' G League team. He has yet to play an NBA game.
Edey has some weaknesses in his offensive game that NBA teams will exploit. He's not a shooting threat at all, which will allow his defender to stay in the paint and cramp driving lanes for his teammates. While he has put in a ton of work to improve his left hand, he is still very right-hand dominant. He's done the same with his passing, but he will have to recognize double teams more quickly because his processing speed isn't where it needs to be yet.
MORE: Purdue steamrolls into the Sweet 16, but Zach Edey is far from satisfied
The big issue with Edey is on the defensive end. Like Garza and Timme, Edey doesn't have the footspeed that most bigs need to guard pick-and-rolls.
When he's stationary near the basket, Edey can be very effective. Because of a lack of defensive three seconds in the college game, he can stay under the rim for as long as he wants for Purdue.
The NBA game is different. Big men have to clear the lane every three seconds, and they have to defend near the 3-point line far more often because of how good NBA players are at pulling up for 3s off screens. Plodding centers have essentially become extinct because of how important it is to be mobile in guarding those plays.
Slow centers are also problematic in transition. The NBA game is faster than college, with better athletes who are constantly putting pressure and trying to score early in the clock. Can Edey guard rim-running big men every night who will try to sprint past him every time? That has given him problems at the college level.
Gigantic players like Boban have been able to score and rebound at insane rates — the 7-4, 290-pound center has averaged 22.8 points and 14.8 rebounds per 36 minutes for his nine-year career. But he has only played 8.7 minutes per game because of how much of a defensive liability he is with his stiff hips and slow feet. Edey faces similar problems. Getting him to change directions on defense is like turning a cruise ship.
Despite those weaknesses, the intel is that NBA teams are willing to give Edey a chance in a weak draft. The Athletic's Sam Vecenie, one of the most locked-in draft evaluators, has been consistently told that "Edey is likely [to] be taken in the first round, outside of the lottery."
So is Edey a lottery pick, or is he more of a flyer in the second round? His future success is ultimately going to be determined by his fit on whatever team drafts him.
He's not the type of prospect who you can plug and play on any team. If a creative coach can surround him with shooters and plus defenders who can switch across positions to keep him stationed near the paint, then he does have an avenue to being a good NBA player. He will still score effectively if those conditions don't exist, but he will give up more on the other end and struggle to stay on the floor.
Zach Edey's worst mock draft positions
| Board | Position |
|---|---|
| Sporting News | 29 |
| The Ringer | 30 |
| No Ceilings | 30 |
| Bleacher Report | 32 |
| Tankathon | 33 |
