After years of waiting and retaining cap space, the Wizards’ Kevin Durant pursuit finally resolves in a massive summer for the direction of the franchise … that almost definitely does not include Kevin Durant.
The Wizards weren’t even granted a meeting with Durant, to this point. However, the money and options still are on the table to improve a team that took a big step backward last season but has a new coach for All-Star point guard John Wall and company.
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Let’s look at their big free agent class and salary cap situation before we proceed.
Potential free agents: Bradley Beal (restricted), Jared Dudley (unrestricted), Nene (unrestricted), Garrett Temple (unrestricted), Alan Anderson (unrestricted), Ramon Sessions (unrestricted), Marcus Thornton (unrestricted), Drew Gooden (non-guaranteed), J.J. Hickson (unrestricted) and Jarell Eddie (non-guaranteed).
Likely cap space: $28.7 million.
Realistic maximum cap space (using $94 million estimate): $31.4 million.
Despite acquiring enigmatic forward Markieff Morris from the Suns at the trade deadline, the Wizards successfully maintained enough space to bring in a max free agent. Having max space with the Wizards’ talent is notable even with Durant off the board. After all, Washington has an All-Star in John Wall plus two clear-cut starters in Bradley Beal and Marcin Gortat as well as the aforementioned Morris. Even better, all but Beal are under contract for three more seasons so the Wizards do not have to account for significant pay raises that challenge their long-term finances.
Amazingly, even after refusing a meeting with the Wizards, Durant could actually dominate Washington’s plans for another summer even If he chooses to stay in Oklahoma City on a one-year deal with a player option. While the operating assumption has been that the Wizards would not have the space to bring in Durant next summer, they could conceivably make it work even with Beal’s new contract on their books. However, that would take sacrificing any long-term spending this summer despite having a strong opportunity to use it.
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Nicolas Batum in particular — as likely as he is to return to the Hornets — would be an enticing option as another all-around small forward still young enough to make sense with Wall and Beal. Al Horford would be a worthwhile addition as well, especially since Gortat’s contract will look great on the trade market after this year’s crop of free agent big men get their lavish salaries. Washington could also play two of Horford, Morris and Gortat at a time for a potent three-man rotation.
Another injury-plagued season may have affected Beal’s value, but he should still be able to elicit a max offer sheet in a wing-starved market, which would start at a little over $22 million for the first season. If they do not come to an agreement early in the process, Washington can still wait out Beal since he cannot start the three-day matching clock until July 7 at the earliest. Considering his potential and the Wizards’ ability to match any offer sheet, it would be shocking to see Beal on any other team next season.
Washington could also concoct a very successful offseason by working outside of the biggest stars on the market. This will be the toughest year in recent NBA history to find bargains, but the Wizards have an unusual combination of clear needs, visibility and playing time for rotation-level players. If they strike out on the biggest unrestricted free agents, they could also be in the mix for restricted free agents as one of the most desirable destinations with an available max or near-max slot.
The Wizards have a nice group of unrestricted free agents but need to resolve their other issues first. Nene and Dudley in particular could be useful pieces on next year’s team but require space to bring back because Washington will likely need to renounce them to create usable cap space for their star targets, though they could actually retain Dudley on a lucrative single-year contract using Bird rights if they strike out on their top targets. The waiting game may push both of them to similar roles on other teams. That same thought process could affect rotation players like Anderson, Sessions and Temple, who make sense to retain at the right price — especially Temple because he has a minimum cap hold and full Bird rights.
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Otto Porter is eligible for an extension before the October 31 deadline with a high cap hold ($11.8 million) that provides some space for an agreement but the team may want to feel more confident in his long-term role before committing serious money to the Georgetown product.
Far from Durant or bust, the Wizards have a rare opportunity to sign an elite player while maintaining a quality core in their twenties. Cost certainty in Wall, Gortat and Morris permits an aggressive tact for a narrow group of individuals. Now all they need is one yes.