The Mavericks stunned everyone by not only defeating the Suns in Game 7, but also blowing them out.
Their reward? A matchup with the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals.
The Mavericks have been the NBA's biggest surprise in these NBA Playoffs. They took down the Jazz in the first round despite not having Luka Doncic for the entire series and followed it up by knocking out a Suns team that ran away with the league's best record this season in the second round.
The Warriors, meanwhile, have handled their business, beating the Nuggets in five games and the Grizzlies in six games.
The Mavericks will be looking to return to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2011, while the Warriors will be looking to make their sixth Finals appearance in eight seasons.
In anticipation of the Western Conference Finals, members of our NBA staff have identified one matchup to watch and made their picks for the series and the newly-introduced Conference Finals MVP award.
Warriors vs. Mavericks matchup to watch
Matchup #1: Luka Doncic vs. whichever Warrior is defending him
With Gary Payton II out, Andrew Wiggins figures to spend the most time chasing Doncic around, but the Mavericks star is as good as it gets at forcing switches to get the matchup he wants. That means Stephen Curry, Jordan Poole and even Klay Thompson will likely find themselves defending Doncic on an island a fair bit in this series.
Doncic proved what he's capable of in Dallas' second-round upset over Phoenix. He can get to his stepback whenever he wants. He plays at a pace that's hard to read. He has both the size and skill to pick most players apart in the post.
I mean, Doncic posted up Deandre Ayton on one possession in Game 7. He's afraid of no one.
The Mavericks are going to need the likes of Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie to step up again to defeat the Warriors, but it all starts with Doncic.
— Scott Rafferty
Matchup #2: Jalen Brunson vs. Jordan Poole
Both Brunson and Poole elevated their games dramatically this offseason with the late first-round picks emerging as legitimate secondary scoring threats.
There's more pressure on Brunson to deliver given Poole has Thompson pouring in over 20 points per game on the opposite flank and Draymond Green facilitating offense. But at this stage, Poole is the more dangerous creator off the bounce than either of them, which makes his performance vital against a stifling Dallas defense that will do everything it can to take the ball out of Curry's hands.
| Mavericks | Warriors | |
| 1st on team | Doncic — 91.1 | Curry — 73.8 |
| 2nd on team | Brunson — 66.0 | Green — 65.0 |
| 3rd on team | Kleber — 37.6 | Poole — 58.5 |
Doncic, meanwhile, has the ball in his hands nearly 10 minutes per game, easily the most in the NBA this postseason. Against the Suns, Brunson was the only Mavs player other than Doncic to average at least 40 touches per game, and if the Warriors sell out in deploying an "anybody but Doncic" approach, the onus will be on Brunson to make Golden State pay.
Make no mistake — Doncic and Curry are the most important players in this series. But the second banana battle between Brunson and Poole could ultimately swing the tide in a tight series.
— Micah Adams
Matchup #3: Draymond Green vs. The act of shooting a basketball
As Micah mentioned above, the Mavericks will likely attack Curry defensively and force the ball out of his hands. If he sees a blitz off just about every screen, that means Green will be Curry's outlet pass on a lot of possessions.
Green is one of the smartest players in the league and led the Warriors in assists this season, so that's a good thing for Golden State, right? Well, not if Green keeps refusing to shoot the ball.
In 11 NBA Playoff games, Green is averaging 7.8 points on 5.9 field goal attempts per game, both the lowest postseason marks since his rookie campaign. Green's defenders have been daring him to do something — anything — as a scorer.
Just check out what happens on this play from the second round:
Draymond took one dribble into the paint, then peaced out of the offense. pic.twitter.com/BC4d31AWg5
— Steph Noh (@StephNoh) May 14, 2022
No one is expecting Green to suddenly become Kevin Durant, but he simply can't be this passive against Dallas. The Warriors won't win this series if they're consistently playing 4-on-5.
— Jordan Greer
Warriors vs. Mavericks expert picks
As much respect as I have for the Warriors and their battle-tested core, my gut says Mavericks in six games. Luka Doncic is on another level right now, and Dallas' role players are firing on all cylinders on both ends of the court. It feels like the Mavericks have caught lightning in a bottle.
— Scott Rafferty
The Mavs opened as +200 dogs, which feels like a combination of public money on the Warriors and a sign of respect for Golden State. I picked Dallas to upset Phoenix in the second round and see no reason to jump ship now against a Warriors team that looked shaky in finishing off an undermanned Grizzlies squad. More magic for Doncic, who will spearhead a win for the Mavericks in seven games.
— Micah Adams
I'm going to make this a triple play and take the Mavericks in six games. The Warriors undoubtedly possess an experience advantage, but this isn't the same team that reached five consecutive NBA Finals. Dallas has the best player in the series in Doncic, and the defensive effort under Jason Kidd has been fantastic.
— Jordan Greer
Warriors vs. Mavericks Western Conference Finals MVP prediction
If the Mavericks win, it's Doncic. And honestly, if the Warriors win, it still might be Doncic. Jerry West won Finals MVP after losing in the first year of that award's existence back in 1969. I could see the same thing playing out for the newly minted Magic Johnson Award if the Mavs fall to the Warriors. The only answer for me here is Luka Doncic.
— Micah Adams
MORE: Full details on the new Magic Johnson Trophy
The Mavericks are my pick to win, so the only option to take home the first Western Conference Finals MVP award is Luka Doncic. The man enters this series with averages of 31.5 points, 10.1 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game in these NBA Playoffs. Time will tell if he can maintain those numbers against the Warriors, but would anyone be surprised if he does? I wouldn't.
— Scott Rafferty
It feels silly to say anything other than Luka Doncic here. I'm not going to overthink this.
— Jordan Greer
