The reigning champions have flexibility this offseason, and that flexibility has led to the scariest idea in the NBA: Kevin Durant joining the Warriors.
With or without Durant, Golden State's summer situation is full of decisions. With the core of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson under contract, the Warriors must make tough decisions on a number of role players and decide how to build toward the future.
MORE: 23 best free agents who really might change teams
Let’s take a look at their free agents, salary cap space and assets for this summer before breaking down what needs to be done.
Potential free agents: Harrison Barnes (Restricted), Festus Ezeli (Restricted), Shaun Livingston (partially guaranteed), Marreese Speights (Unrestricted), Leandro Barbosa (Unrestricted), Brandon Rush (Unrestricted), James Michael McAdoo (Restricted) and Ian Clark (Restricted).
Likely cap space: None.
Realistic maximum cap space (using $92 million estimate): None.
2016 NBA Draft assets: Own first round pick, no second round pick (traded to Utah).
The Durant possibility has been covered definitively here before and the underlying salary math has not changed significantly since November. Put simply, without needing a sign-and-trade, the Warriors could clear the cap space to sign the Thunder star outright while retaining Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Festus Ezeli and one of Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut.
If Durant does not join the Warriors, their offseason will be much more linear. Both Barnes and Ezeli will be restricted free agents so they can negotiate with Golden State while trying their luck on a thirsty market. Expect Barnes to have multiple teams willing to give him an offer sheet for three years at his maximum plus a player option, which would be a higher salary than both Green and Thompson for each season of their respective deals. Ezeli’s free agency will be more variable, especially since this season’s knee surgery reignited durability concerns.
MORE: Durant only has two smart options for free agency
The rest of Golden State’s prominent free agents will be unrestricted veterans. Leandro Barbosa and Brandon Rush can choose their team but the Warriors will have Early Bird rights on all three, meaning they can spend up to the average salary (about $6 million for the first season) on them without having to use another exception while the team has full Bird rights on big man Marreese Speights.
Ian Clark and James Michael McAdoo could be back, as well, because the Warriors have match rights. Their future with the team presumably depends on the quality of offers they get in July.
After making a series of moves to lower their luxury tax bill for the 2015-16 season, the possibility of the Warriors going deep into the tax again for at least another year or two could be a bitter (but necessary) pill to swallow. Fortunately for ownership, the cap is rising faster than their locked-in salaries to core contributors so even giving substantial raises to Barnes and Ezeli would not be enough to produce a significant tax bill like what they face this season. However, the luxury tax could functionally raise the price on bringing back depth like Barbosa, Rush and Speights at higher salaries if they retain their restricted free agents.
Golden State has their own pick again this year and will hope another talented player falls to No. 30. Making another good selection could produce real dividends considering how valuable having a player on this super cheap rookie scale will be moving forward.
MORE: A message to people who think Curry is getting cocky
The Warriors also have two small trade exceptions from their summer 2015 deals, worth about $5.4 million and $3.2 million, that expire in late July. Exceptions that small do not hold a ton of value in the current salary climate but could be a way of adding a player already under contract for more than the minimum as a flier. They also added a little under $900,000 to their books for the next three seasons by waiving Jason Thompson and using the stretch provision, which only matters if the team uses cap space and that amount will be a small portion of the rising cap.
Golden State has the catbird seat as they can make a case to Durant without sacrificing anything unless he says yes. Otherwise, they can bring the band back together for at least one season, which is an awfully nice consolation prize.