The Golden State Warriors are one win away from the NBA Finals and the Dallas Mavericks are fighting to stave off elimination.
The Mavericks will host the Warriors for Game 4, looking to keep their season alive in a win-or-go-home scenario. Golden State edged Dallas in its first game on the road behind 31 points and 11 assists from Stephen Curry. The Warriors also got a hefty contribution from Andrew Wiggins, who pitched in 27 points and 11 rebounds in the victory.
The Mavericks' three-headed monster of Luka Doncic (40 points), Jalen Brunson (20) and Spencer Dinwiddie (26) did all they could to give their team a chance, but Dallas couldn't overcome poor shooting performances from Reggie Bullock, Maxi Kleber and Davis Bertans.
Now, the Mavericks will desperately need Doncic to explode – again – in order to take a single game in this series. Meanwhile, the Warriors are so close to their sixth Finals appearance in eight years that it will be hard to keep a championship-hungry team away from returning to that stage.
Will the Mavericks be able to fight off elimination? Here's everything to know about Game 4, including updated odds, trends and predictions.
Warriors vs. Mavericks odds for Western Conference Finals Game 4
- Spread: Warriors +1
- Over/under: 215.5
- Moneyline: Mavericks -112, Warriors -104
(betting odds per FanDuel Sportsbook as of 6:30 p.m. on Monday, May 23)
The Warriors were underdogs (+3.5) for the first time in this series heading into Game 3. Despite winning outright in that contest, Golden State will enter Game 4 as a one-point underdog.
Four betting trends to watch
Warriors as underdogs?
This is only the second time this postseason – home or away – that the Warriors enter a contest as underdogs. The first time was Game 3 (+3.0) vs. the Mavericks and Golden State won outright.
Mavericks against the spread at home
The Mavericks are 5-2 against the spread at home in these playoffs, with their only non-covers being the very first game of the postseason (without Doncic) against the Jazz and Game 3 against the Warriors.
Luka Doncic continues to pile up counting stats
In Game 3, Doncic eclipsed the 40-point mark for the second contest in a row. The Mavericks star guard tallied 40 points, 11 rebounds and three assists, racking up counting stats as he has done all postseason. In the game before that, Doncic compiled 42 points, eight rebounds and five assists. All of this to say, if the Mavericks are going to keep their season alive, it will be on the heels of a huge night from Doncic.
Stephen Curry is heating up
The Warriors guard has tallied 30-plus points in back-to-back games, shooting 51.2 percent from the field and 55.0 percent from 3 in those contests. Curry's point total for Game 4 is currently listed at over/under 27.5 – an intriguing number for a star player who could seal a trip to the NBA Finals and the first-ever Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP trophy with one more strong outing.
Warriors vs. Mavericks expert predictions
Against the spread
Mavericks -1. The Warriors were in a similar position to close out their second-round series against the Grizzlies and everyone assumed the series was over. As a result, Golden State got routed by 39 points as Memphis extended the series one more game before being eliminated. Don't be surprised if the Warriors get caught playing with their food again and Doncic finds a way to pick up one win in this series.
Over-under
Over 215.5. The Warriors and Mavericks have only gone over 215 total points once in this series but if Dallas is going to keep its season alive, it will have to keep up with Golden State's offensive firepower. I see this one being a shootout as the Warriors' defense may get lazy knowing they have some games to give.
Player prop
Luka Doncic over 52.5 points+rebounds+assists. Don't get me wrong, 52.5 is a large number but Doncic is going to have to do everything to keep his team's season alive. He eclipsed that counting stats total in each of his last two games against the Warriors, combining for 55 PTS+REB+AST in Game 2 and 54 PTS+REB+AST in Game 3.
