The highly-anticipated Game 1 battle between Steph Curry's Warriors and LeBron James's Lakers did not disappoint — Los Angeles mounted the massive upset and held off a late Splash Brothers surge to steal home-court away from the reigning champions. The result: L.A. flipped the script and leapfrogged Golden State as series favorites. Whereas the Dubs opened as -165 faves to advance to the Western Conference Finals, the Lakers are now -175 to steal the show. So, how do we proceed as bettors?
For starters, it's imperative that we do not let ourselves become overly reactionary or knee-jerk with our betting decisions. Just like the old adage about the regular season being 'a marathon, not a sprint,' NBA playoff series are not decided by one game. We just saw Curry's Warriors recover from an 0-2 series deficit to the scrappy Kings in Round 1, only to win four of the remaining five games including two at the always-litty Golden 1 Center.
We have also witnessed unprecedented postseason moments from Steph vs. LeBron in the past, including Bron's Cavaliers recovering from an 0-3 NBA Finals hole in 2016 to win four consecutive games and raise Cleveland's first NBA championship banner. The past storylines and narratives are endless, but our predictions and best bets require us to correctly guess what's next for the fifth playoff installment of this historic rivalry.
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The key factor for Game 1 was not the modern-day GOAT (Bron) or the greatest shooter of all time (Chef Curry) — it was the Brow. Anthony Davis dominated the middle, ripping down 23 boards to go along with his 30 hard-fought points on 11-of-19 shooting and 8-of-8 from the line. AD swatted four shots and played all but four minutes, a Herculean effort that should prove his level of motivation once and for all. No hyperbole — he was Chamberlain-like.
But Golden State still enters Game 2 as -5.5 favorites with a -250 moneyline on BetMGM, an implied win probability of over 70 percent. Oddsmakers know how lethal Curry and Klay Thompson can be when they're against the ropes, especially at Chase Center where the defending champs went 33-8 during the regular season.
How do we go about handicapping this series and making some educated wagers? Below, we'll discuss some betting and statistical trends, break down our favorite series-long prop on BetMGM, and provide some insights on how to bet this best-of-seven ahead of Game 2.
BETMGM ODDS: Spreads, moneylines, props, parlays -- get it all with BetMGM!
Warriors vs. Lakers updated series odds, picks, predictions
| Team | Series Odds |
| Warriors | +145 |
| Lakers | -175 |
With a single Game 1 upset, the Lakers' win probability jumped from 38 percent to 64 percent. Basically, they flipped the script for the series odds, from an opening of Golden State -165 to the current line of Los Angeles -175.
But don't expect the juice to sway the betting public — even after Sacramento forged a 2-0 lead over the Dubs in the opening round, Golden State dominated the action. If any team can respond to postseason adversity at the hands of King James, it's the Curry-led Warriors with their four titles in seven years.
Of course, the flip-side of that coin is that James has won four titles as well (the 2020 Bubble ring counts just the same as a regular ring). And when healthy and motivated, Bron and AD are arguably the most effective two-way duo in the Association (I'm losing some Boston followers, but that's nothing new). And Rob Pelinka's crafty midseason roster upgrades transformed L.A. from a 26-32 team before the All-Star break to a 43-39 team at the regular season's close.
D'Angelo Russell has been everything at the point that Russell Westbrook was not: controlled and consistent playmaker without the late-game brain farts, smooth outside shooter with trusty instincts as a penetrator, and timely passer unclouded by ego. Jarred Vanderbilt has complemented Davis well as a defender, rebounder, and rim-runner. Rui Hachimura has microwave-scoring ability off the bench. And Austin Reaves — not a midseason acquisition but certainly a midseason breakout — has gelled perfectly with mentor LeBron as the King's newest success project.
It's easy to see why Los Angeles has taken a ton of action in the NBA Finals futures market. The Lakers jumped from +2200 at the start of the postseason to +1400 before Round 1 to +700 ahead of the semifinals (they have since slid back to +750, but the Nuggets could have something to do with that). BetMGM lists L.A. as its third-highest liability in the Finals betting market. No. 1 and 2: the Nuggets and Warriors.
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NBA hoops fans and the majority of betting enthusiasts are no fools. We have all seen Curry, Thompson, and company pull off improbable comebacks, and losing one home tilt just means they'll have to make it up in enemy territory. Dating back to the beginning of its 2022 championship run, Golden State has won seven postseason games away from Chase Center. Going back further to 2017, the Dubs have gone 28-15 on the road in the playoffs.
Many will point to the Warriors' abysmal 11-30 regular-season road record this year, which was worse than all but two of the 29 other NBA teams (the lottery-bound Spurs, Rockets, and Pistons were the only ones with fewer road victories). But a ton of variables went into Golden State's regular-season struggles, including:
- Curry's multiple injuries (he played just 56 games)
- the extended personal leave by 2022 Finals x-factor Andrew Wiggins (he played just 37 games)
- the turbulent early-season relationship between Draymond Green and Draymond Poole
- the offseason losses of underrated defensive role players Otto Porter Jr. and Gary Payton II
- Poole not taking a step forward — and James Wiseman proving to be an abject failure
But almost every single one of those issues has been cleared up, solved, or squashed.
Curry is as healthy as he's been in years — he dropped a 50-piece on Sac-town in Game 7 and has eaten fourth-quarter minutes like I eat White Castle sliders. Wiggins is back in tow and looks like he hasn't missed a beat. Green and Poole squashed their beef like Steven Yeun and Ali Wong in that crazy Netflix show (Hell, Green even passed to Poole and not Curry for a shot at the game-winner at the end of Game 1 — although methinks it was Poole's job to then pass to Curry). GP2 came back to Golden State after a bumpy ride in Portland. Wiseman is just a blip in everyone's memory banks now that Kevon Looney has turned into Dennis Rodman 2.0 on the glass.
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This Warriors team is still very much positioned to make a run at its fifth Larry O'Brien Trophy in eight years. Everyone knows their role, and Steve Kerr remains one of the most savvy and in-tune coaches in the NBA. They make in-game adjustments like Celtics and 76ers fans wish Joe Mazzulla and Doc Rivers could make. They work harder to fight for open shots than anyone else. They never get rattled or overly jazzed up by high-pressure moments. They are — and always will be with Curry and Thompson in the mix — every bit as much of a threat to win it all as they were last season.
That said, it won't be smooth sailing. Losing Game 1 at home means that Golden State must win tonight's game and then break off at least one of the first two at Crypto. That would essentially start the series anew and give the Dubs a fresh shot at a one-game advantage with a Game 5 tilt at Chase Center. Then they have two opportunities to grab their fourth W and seal their ticket to the WCF.
The conservative decision would be to put $100 on the Warriors' series odds (+145). The bold betting move would be to put $50 on the Warriors to win the series, $35 on the Warriors in seven (+325), and $15 on the Warriors in six (+600). That way, you would profit $75 on the W, and an additional $114 or $90 on top of it depending on whether it takes six games or seven games. Either way, it's a bigger net profit than the $145 you would net if you only put a flat $100 on the Dubs.
Who's down for some sports betting roulette?
Best bets:
—$50 on the Warriors to win the series (+145)
—$35 on the Warriors in seven games (+325)
—$15 on the Warriors in six games (+600)
NBA Playoffs 2023 odds: Other series-long prop advice for Warriors-Lakers
| Series duration (number of total games) | Odds |
| 4 games | +600 |
| 5 games | +350 |
| 6 games | +170 |
| 7 games | +175 |
The overwhelming majority of fans and bettors will likely predict that this one's going six or seven games — but did you know that the four past LeBron-Steph postseason battles have all been decided in a different amount of games? Golden State won in six games in the 2015 Finals, LeBron's Cavs mounted the epic 3-1 comeback to win in seven in 2016, the Dubs won in five in 2017, and then they swept the Cavs and ended LeBron's second reign in Cleveland in 2018.
Basically, what we're trying to say is that series durations are crapshoots, and if you're going to bet on a series duration you might as well get the extra plus odds and pick the winner, too. BetMGM priced 'six' and 'seven' games so close together and at such short odds that you won't be getting much value or bang for your buck. Our advice here is to not bet — but if you insist, your best bet is obviously 'seven games' as it yields the best return and, by our estimation, could very well happen.
