Victor Wembanyama is officially a member of the San Antonio Spurs. After sitting as an overwhelming -10000 favorite to go No. 1 overall in the 2023 NBA Draft, the 7-5 Frenchman is also the prohibitive favorite to win the 2024 Rookie of the Year award with -200 odds on BetMGM.
While he isn't quite as heavy of a favorite to win ROY as he was to go first overall, the betting market is expecting him to take the league by storm from Day 1. In most multi-way futures awards markets, it's rare to see a player pegged with negative odds with the start of the regular season months out, so either his fellow competition doesn't quite stack up or the market's simply exaggerating his projected impact in year one.
Just how heavy of a favorite is Wembanyama in the Rookie of the Year betting market? We compared his Rookie of the Year odds to the preseason odds of five fellow highly touted No. 1 picks to see how the French phenom stacks up.
NBA Rookie of the Year Odds 2024
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, an Authorized Gaming Operator of the NBA. Click HERE to sign up!
| Player | Odds |
| Victor Wembanyama | -200 |
| Scoot Henderson | +350 |
| Chet Holmgren | +500 |
| Brandon Miller | +950 |
| Amen Thompson | +1500 |
| Cam Whitmore | +2000 |
| Ausar Thompson | +2200 |
| Jarace Walker | +2500 |
| Anthony Black | +3000 |
| Taylor Hendricks | +3500 |
Although the incoming rookie class profiles as a strong collection of hoopers with the potential to become instant contributors, Wembanyama's -200 odds imply he already has a 66.66-percent chance of taking home Rookie of the Year honors. Additionally, last year's No. 2 overall pick, Chet Holmgren, has yet to play in a regular season game and is eligible to win ROY honors next season.
As we mentioned, it's rare to see such a heavy favorite in a multi-way futures award market, which tells you all you need to know about how dynamic of a player Wembanyama is. Wembanyama's undoubtedly warranted as the betting favorite, considering he'll likely be the most utilized player out of the top 10 contenders.
As things currently stand, Scoot Henderson (+350), Holmgren (+500), and Brandon Miller (+950) won't be their team's No. 1 options on the offensive end, and unless they produce at an uber-efficient clip, it could be challenging to put up superior numbers to Wembanyama's two-way output.
Of course, missing time via injury is always a concern and likely is the sole reason Wembanyama could fail to win the award. It's part of the gamble, but if Wemby's able to stay relatively healthy and post similar numbers to his O/U props on some sites (17.5 ppg, 8.5 rebs, 2.5 blks), he's in a firm position to win the award.
Notable former No. 1 pick preseason Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Season | Odds | Implied Probability | Won ROY? |
| Paolo Banchero | 2022-23 | +200 | 33.33% | Yes |
| Zion Williamson | 2019-20 | +250 | 28.57% | No |
| Anthony Davis | 2012-13 | +175 | 36.36% | No |
| John Wall | 2010-11 | +120 | 45.45% | No |
| LeBron James | 2003-04 | +150 | 40.00% | Yes |
All historical odds courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.com
While the strength of each rookie class plays a role in the preseason pricing of the Rookie of the Year odds, Wembanyama's the lone player among these six studs priced with negative odds.
In terms of his implied probability, John Wall was the only other player with preseason odds of at least 45 percent. Wall wasn't able to outperform the eventual 2010-11 ROY winner, Blake Griffin, who was rookie-eligible despite being selected No. 1 overall in 2009. Griffin missed the entire 2009-10 season rehabbing from a broken right knee suffered in the preseason. While hindsight's always 20-20, it may have been a bit far-fetched to price Wall with only +120 odds given Griffin was back healthy and rookie eligible.
Not even LeBron James was pegged with negative odds to win ROY, and while some of that had to do with college stars Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade being in the same class, Wembanyama's odds are over 26-percent better to win ROY relative to the King. Wemby is truly the ultimate unicorn.
His odds imply he has two times the chance of reigning Rookie of the Year award winner Paolo Banchero and over a 38 percent chance compared to Zion Williamson in '19-20. It's fair to say that Williamson's fellow competition was significantly more challenging, entering the league alongside Ja Morant and RJ Barrett, but Banchero was the clear-cut favorite from the moment Holmgren suffered a season-ending injury playing in Jamal Crawford's Pro-Am League.
Anthony Davis was a hefty favorite to win ROY in '12-13, with only Damian Lillard (+500) priced with 5-1 odds or better in the preseason. Davis fell behind in the ROY race early after dealing with a concussion and foot injury, and his final points per game (13.5) and rebounding (8.2) numbers weren't as impressive as Lillard's high-scoring season (19.0 ppg, 6.5 apg).
We'll see if Wembanyama's able to parlay his hype into a strong freshman campaign, but he's already proven he can produce against fellow pros on both ends of the floor. That said, it's still absurd to see him priced as this heavy of a favorite entering the season.
