Victor Wembanyama Defensive Player of the Year odds surge ahead of Spurs' 2023 season opener

Since Victor Wembanyama landed with the Spurs as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, the dynamic rookie big man has already generated historic levels of hype. The French phenom easily leads the Rookie of the Year futures board on Caesars at -150, which translates to a 60-percent implied winning probability. Now, as San Antonio awaits its nationally televised season debut on Wednesday (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), Wemby's odds have also skyrocketed for Defensive Player of the Year, an award that has never been won by a rookie.

According to BetMGM, the 19-year-old's DPOY odds have jumped from +4000 at opening to +1300 today. During that nearly one-month span, Wemby has overtaken Jaren Jackson Jr. and Evan Mobley as the highest handle (16.6%). That basically means that 16.6 percent of all money bet on DPOY has been on Wemby. He also now appears on a whopping 20.9 percent of DPOY-related tickets, which is head and shoulders above Mobley (11%) and JJJ (7.9%).

As a result, BetMGM and other major sportsbooks have declared Wembanyama their biggest Defensive Player of the Year liability despite the fact that reigning DPOY Jackson still serves as the odds-on leader in the clubhouse at +500. Wemby isn't even in the top five on the Caesars odds board —  Mobley (+600), Anthony Davis (+800), Giannis Antetokounmpo (+800), and Bam Adebayo (+900) all have shorter odds — but Wemby winning would hurt the sportsbooks the most.

In fact, it would be a crippling blow. Many already regard the long, lanky unicorn as a shoo-in for Rookie of the Year over red-shirted Thunder big man Chet Holmgren (+300) and Blazers' Dame-heir apparent Scoot Henderson (also +300). Thirty-five percent of the ROY handle is on Wemby. If he puts a green checkmark next to ROY and DPOY, it will be a windfall of historic proportions. 

MORE NBA FUTURES:
MVP best bets | Rookie of the Year best bets | SN NBA's picks

Before we discuss this further, let's take a full look at Caesars' 2023-24 Defensive Player of the Year odds.

NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds 2023-24

(showing only odds of +4000 or shorter)

Can Victor Wembanyama become the first rookie to win Defensive Player of the Year?

Sorry to burst your bubble, Wemby backers — we just don't see it happening. Sure, he has already racked up some astounding blocks. He swats dudes even when he gets crossed up and beat off the dribble. He swats alley-oops. He guards two opponents in the paint at once and still gets the swat. Hell, he even swatted an Alperen Sengun hook shot. But if blocked shots were the sole criteria for DPOY, folks like Hassan Whiteside would have more decorated trophy cases.

Defensive Player of the Year honors typically go to a veteran and/or the best defensive player on a very good defensive team. Wemby is 19 and on a team that will more than likely be quite bad and have a below-average to awful defense. Caesars projects the Spurs to finish with a 28-54 record this season, about right for a squad that just ranked last in both defensive rating (120.0) and opponent points per game (123.1) last year.

Wemby will improve San Antonio immensely, there's no doubt about that. When I asked Sporting News NBA editors Carlan Gay and Scott Rafferty for their Spurs over/under pick, they both gave slight leans to OVER 28.5. (For what it's worth, SN NBA expert Steph Noh has San Antonio's UNDER as his best bet.) It's also worth noting that Devin Vassell only played 38 games last season, and a full season with him should provide Gregg Popovich's squad with a boost on both sides of the floor. 

However, any Wemby bet or Spurs over/under bet feels too volatile to touch. Betting — especially futures betting — should be done with the head, not the heart. Wemby's a fantastic story and a 7-4 highlight reel with an 8-foot wingspan, but can we trust him to play 60 games? Do we know whether Pop will go for a shot at the NBA Play-In Tournament? Or, will he tank one more year to land the last big fish, putting the finishing touches on the formulation of another Spurs dynasty?

With so many question marks, we can't possibly feel comfortable enough to make a bet on the first rookie to win DPOY in the 41-year history of the award. If San Antonio tanks — or just sucks in general — Wemby has no shot, like a guard driving on him one-on-one. You're much better off betting on the anchor of a strong defensive team, such as Evan Mobley or Brook Lopez, or a well-established and well-respected vet like Anthony Davis or Jrue Holiday.

Any of those four guys being crowned the best defender isn't as catchy a story as a 19-year-old unicorn, but as bettors, we must divorce ourselves from what we would like to see happen and instead put our money on what's most likely to happen. 

NBA Defensive Player of the Year 2023-24: Best bets

Fade Wemby at +1300. Take Evan Mobley (+600) as the best bet, since he's the best defensive player on the league's No. 1 defense. Put a small wager on Brook Lopez (+1500) and/or Jrue Holiday (+2000) as the top values on the board. BroLo's rim protection will be even more vital to the Bucks' success now that Holiday has left Milwaukee, while Holiday might finally take down DPOY honors as the Celtics' replacement for 2021-22 winner Marcus Smart. Lopez or Holiday winning would be Lifetime Achievement Awards of sorts, and it would be quite the storyline if the recently split former teammates-turned-rivals finished first and second in the voting.

Our favorite long shots: Kawhi Leonard (+4000) and Alex Caruso (+4000). Like Holiday, Leonard and Caruso perennially draw widespread praise from players, fans, media, and coaches alike as the best perimeter defenders in the sport. Kawhi has two DPOYs to his name, Jrue has five All-Defensive selections, and Caruso is coming off his first selection to the All-Defensive First Team. Don't put the deed to your house at stake for a long shot — all you need is a $5 bet for a chance to win $200.