Big issue: Not since 2012-13, when Damian Lillard was a rookie, have the Trail Blazers finished below .500 and out of the playoffs. That also happened to be Terry Stotts’ first season as coach and Neil Olshey’s first season running the team, so far back that JJ Hickson was a Portland starter.
Since that season, the Stotts-Olshey combo has led Portland to an average of 49 wins and six straight playoff appearances. That’s consistent success. Problem is, this year’s trip to the Western Conference finals was exceptional, but probably not sustainable.
If someone will be handed blame for that, it will most likely be Stotts, who has proven to be a capable coach on many levels and gotten the most out of this team. Still, when things stall, it’s the coach who tends to fall, whether he deserves it or not.
That’s foolish, of course. Stotts did well to address his team’s heavy reliance on the pick-and-roll in last year’s playoffs, which helped lead to the sweep suffered at the hands of the Pelicans. The offense came back more varied this season, with center Jusuf Nurkic much more involved and productive before he broke his leg two months ago.
This is still a team built around its backcourt of Lillard and CJ McCollum, though, two scorers who are mediocre defenders at best. Because the Blazers rely so heavily on their perimeter players, and because those two are beatable defenders, there is always going to be a cap on how far this team can go as constructed.
So there is one last option that Portland has grappled with but ultimately always dodged — trading either McCollum or Lillard. This year’s playoff run makes that question a little less pressing than it has been in the past, but it’s still something the Blazers will have to consider.
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Free-agent outlook: Hard to believe, but Al-Farouq Aminu has already been in the league for nine years and has developed into a solid role player, a guy who can defend multiple positions and be a passable 3-point shooter (35.3 percent over four seasons in Portland). He’s one of the weaker starting power forwards in the league, but the Trail Blazers have enough scoring and value his defense.
Aminu’s time may be up in Portland, though. He will be a free agent this summer, and the Blazers have Zach Collins, who has had two years of grooming, ready to take a shot at the starting five.
Because they have Aminu’s Bird rights, the Blazers can re-sign him without breaking into their midlevel exception. Even if the plan is to move Aminu to the bench, for a team struggling with depth, it would be well worth it to keep him except for one stubborn fact: re-signing Aminu would likely put the Blazers into the luxury tax.
That will be a significant obstacle for the team this summer. The Blazers are still a year away from being rid of bad deals like those for Evan Turner and Meyers Leonard, and that could cost them a valued role player like Aminu.
The young folks: Collins was bequeathed the minutes that had been going to Ed Davis last season, and from the beginning of the season, it looked like letting Davis walk — an unpopular decision in Portland last summer — was a stroke of brilliance. Collins averaged 10.6 points in 21.5 minutes in the first 12 games of the season, making 57.1 percent of his shots and 40.0 percent of his 3s.
But Collins reverted to form after that, his output inconsistent and his shooting sometimes dipping into severe slumps. At season’s end, Collins was averaging just 6.6 points on 47.3 percent shooting and 33.1 percent 3-point shooting.
He is only 21, but Collins needs to show some consistency next season. It will be his third year in the league, and the Blazers have handled him delicately thus far. With Aminu a free agent, it’s time to push Collins into the deep end and make him swim.
The team is also quietly excited about rookie Anfernee Simons, whose blend of athleticism and shooting ability could get him a rotation spot as early as next year, when he will only be 20. Simons started and played all 48 minutes of the Blazers’ final game this season, scoring 37 points on 13-for-21 shooting and 7-for-11 3-point shooting. He also had six rebounds and nine assists.
Portland might eventually find time, too, for Gary Trent Jr., the 37th pick in last year’s draft. He has shown glimpses of becoming an effective shooter, and in six games in the G-League this year, he averaged 33.0 points, with 50.7 percent shooting and 50.0 percent 3-point shooting on 10 attempts per game.
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Wait till next year: It’s hard to imagine the Trail Blazers making much of a leap forward next season. Getting themselves so deep into the playoffs represents a step forward. But even when Nurkic is healthy and back to the levels he hit this year, it will still primarily be a perimeter-oriented team. A new coach won’t change that.
Trading one of the backcourt stars would change it. But that might prove to be a change for the worse, so don’t expect that kind of move this summer. The Blazers will be back next year, and they’re likely to be much the same group with much the same record.