Kevin Durant. Kyrie Irving. Donovan Mitchell.
Free agency may be cooling off but the trade talks involving a handful of NBA superstars continue to swirl.
And while the daily Woj and Shams tweets keep the NBA world on high alert for any imminent deals, all of this rumor talk continues to be just that... talk.
Part of the reason? It appears the Rudy Gobert trade may have set the market with an astronomically high bar for any star dealt this offseason.
While there's no doubt the Timberwolves got the best player in the deal, they parted ways with not one, not two, not three, but four first-round picks to acquire Gobert, plus Walker Kessler, a first-round pick in the 2022 NBA Draft.
If it took essentially five first-round picks to land Gobert, how many will it take to get Durant? Are the Jazz expecting a similar return for Mitchell, who they're now open to trading?
If Durant and/or Mitchell — or Irving, who brings an entirely different set of questions — are moved, it's safe to assume that a number of first-round picks will be exchanged. With that comes a lot of risk. Sure, the addition of either one of them could give a team the boost they need to compete for a title, but if it goes sideways, there goes their safety net.
Today, let's put on our optimistic hat and look at four recent examples of teams giving up one or more first-round picks for a star and it working out. We'll save our pessimistic hat for another day.
Note: All trade details are from Basketball Reference.
MORE: Is the Gobert trade a smart gamble for Timberwolves?
Jrue Holiday to the Bucks (2020)
Bucks got: Jrue Holiday, Sam Merrill
Pelicans got: Steven Adams, Eric Bledsoe, 2024 first-round pick, 2025 first-round pick, 2026 first-round pick, 2027 first-round pick
Thunder got: George Hill, Zylan Cheatham, Joshia Gray, Darius Miller, Kenrich Williams, 2023 first-round pick, 2023 second-round pick, 2024 second-round pick
Nuggets got: R.J. Hampton
The Bucks paid a steep price to pay for Holiday — two unprotected first-round picks plus two pick swaps.
It won them a title.
While we're still nowhere close to knowing the full results of this trade, it's already a win for the Bucks, who defeated the Suns in the 2021 NBA Finals to win the franchise's first title in 50 years. Holiday isn't even the same caliber of player as the three examples laid out further down this list — he's a one-time All-Star — but his playmaking and perimeter defense helped get Milwaukee over the hump.
The Bucks aren't done competing either. Khris Middleton has a player option in his contract for 2023-24, Holiday has one for 2024-25 and Giannis Antetokounmpo has one for 2025-26.
As long as the three of them are on the same team, the Bucks are going to have a shot at winning it all.
Anthony Davis to the Lakers (2019)
Lakers got: Anthony Davis
Pelicans got: Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, De'Andre Hunter, Brandon Ingram, 2022 first-round pick (became Dyson Daniels), 2023 first-round pick, 2024 first-round pick
Wizards got: Isaac Bonga, Jemerrio Jones, Moritz Wagner, 2022 second-round pick (became Kennedy Chandler)
Yes, not having a first-round pick to show for their miserable 2021-22 season stung, but trading for Davis helped the Lakers achieve their ultimate goal of pairing LeBron James with another star and winning title No. 17, tying them with the Celtics for the most all time.
Davis was legitimately awesome during Los Angeles' championship run, to the point where we had him ranked as the third-best player in the NBA entering the 2020-21 season. Injuries have held him back in the two seasons since, but Davis is still only 29 years old. If he can stay healthy — an admittedly big if — his best years could very well be ahead of him.
And again... as bad as things look moving forward, the Lakers won a championship they wouldn't have otherwise by making this trade.
Kawhi Leonard to the Raptors (2018)
The Raptors got: Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green
The Spurs got: DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl, 2019 first-round pick (became Keldon Johnson)
This will go down as one of the most memorable and consequential trades in NBA history.
While there was some risk involved for the Raptors at the time — Leonard was coming off of a season in which he appeared in nine games and had only one year remaining on his contract — it led to them winning their first title in franchise history. Leonard took Toronto to heights DeRozan couldn't and Green was an important piece of the team's championship puzzle.
The first-round pick the Raptors parted with to acquire Leonard turned out to be Keldon Johnson. Johnson is a nice prospect, but he doesn't give the Raptors any regret when it comes to making this trade, even though Leonard and Green were only in Toronto for one season.
James Harden to the Rockets (2012)
Rockets got: James Harden, Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook, Lazar Hayward
Thunder got: Jeremy Lamb, Kevin Martin, 2013 first-round pick (became Steven Adams), 2013 second-round pick (became Álex Abrines), 2014 first-round pick (became Mitch McGary)
The Rockets don't have a championship to show for it, but the Harden trade still turned out pretty well for them.
Harden went from being a sixth man in Oklahoma City to one of the greatest players of all time in Houston. In his eight seasons with the Rockets, he averaged 29.6 points, 7.7 assists, 6.0 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game. Those numbers earned him eight All-Star selections, seven All-NBA selections, three scoring titles, one assist title and, of course, one MVP award.
The Rockets made the playoffs in each of those seasons and probably would've made the Finals in 2018 had they not missed — I kid you not — 27 straight 3-pointers in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals.
Of the three picks the Rockets gave up to get Harden, only Steven Adams has carved out a career for himself in the NBA.
The jury is still out on...
Paul George to the Clippers
Clippers got: Paul George
Thunder got: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, 2021 first-round pick (became Tre Mann), 2022 first-round pick (became Jalen Williams), 2023 first-round pick, 2023 first-round pick, 2024 first-round pick, 2025 first-round pick, 2026 first-round pick
Even if you view this through the lens of the trade landing the Clippers both George and Leonard, who signed with the franchise as a free agent and wanted to play with George, that's a lot of picks. And yet, George and Leonard are still under contract for at least two more seasons, and the acquisitions of Norman Powell, Robert Covington and John Wall set the Clippers up to be one of the most loaded teams in the league.
Of course, LA's championship hopes hinge on George and Leonard being healthy — another big if — but it's still possible the George trade will help them reach the mountaintop.
Gilgeous-Alexander is certainly among the NBA's most intriguing young stars but even with his potential, he has yet to make an All-Star team and isn't necessarily a slam dunk franchise-altering talent even if he does go on to become a perennial All-Star.
Is there a world in which SGA plays second fiddle alongside Leonard, thus extending the Clippers' window even further along with keeping their picks? Yes. But he's not on the same level as George — at least not yet.
