The second round of the NBA playoffs rolls on Tuesday with a pair of Game 5s: 76ers at Heat (-3) and Mavericks at Suns (-6). The 76ers and Mavs both evened their respective series 2-2 at home Sunday, but how will they fare on the favorites’ home courts on Tuesday night? Before you make any bets, let’s take a look at Tuesday’s NBA odds, key betting trends, and expert picks from BetQL.
One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA model has gone 22-10 (69 percent) across all bets over the last three days. If you bet $100 on each, you’d be up $796 right now!
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game, so sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!
NBA Playoffs: Best bets, odds, expert picks, & betting trends for Tuesday
Odds in this article are subject to change.
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
76ers at Heat (-3), O/U 209.5
Trends: So, wait, is James Harden back? OK, we might not want to jump to that conclusion yet, but he looked like he's finally found a comfort zone with the Sixers...or not because, you know, one game isn't enough of a sample size yet.
That being said, according to ESPN and Second Spectrum, the average closest defender to Harden in Game 1 was 3.7 feet. In Game 2 it was down to 3.1 feet, the closest in any game over the past three years. In Game 3, with Embiid back on the floor, you could really see how much of an effect Embiid had. When their big man was on the court Miami gave Harden 3.7 feet but just 2.6 feet when Embiid was off it.
It helps to have an MVP finalist on the floor, that's for sure. Speaking of, does Embiid use his MVP snub as motivation tonight? Probably. Can Harden have a similar outing if that's the case? It's obviously possible. But now this series shifts back to Miami, where Philly lost both games pretty handily without Embiid. The Heat are 29-11 SU as a home favorite this year, while the Sixers are just 9-8-1 ATS on the road as an underdog. BetQL also points out that the Heat are 34-16 ATS against teams forcing 13 or fewer turnovers per game and 20-7 against teams making at least 36 percent of their three-point attempts.
Expect this game to be closer than the first two in Miami with Embiid playing, but Miami needs to shoot better than the combined 40.9 percent we've seen the past two games on the road. They shot 47.4 percent in Games 1-2 at home.
Top Player Prop: James Harden to score 25-plus points (+230) on FanDuel. OK, so it was only one game where we saw the old Harden, but that shows he still has it in him. Harden can without a doubt continue to benefit with Embiid taking so much of the attention, and getting this price on just 25 points is worth crossing your fingers and hoping Harden didn't stay out too late in South Beach the night before.
BetQL Staff Pick: Heat -3. The Heat covered the spread at home in Games 1 and 2, and I believe in them to do it again in this one. BetQL pointed out some great Heat trends above, but another trend I absolutely adore here is that the 76ers are 0-9 ATS on Tuesday nights this season. I’m all-in on the Heat to cover this spread. – Lucy Burdge
Mavericks at Suns (-6), O/U 213
Trends: I don't think we're really going out on a limb saying the Suns need Chris Paul on the court. They also need him to get back to being the future Hall of Famer we're accustomed to. Over his past two games, CP3 has had 10 total fouls while averaging just 8.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.5 assists and turning the ball over nine total times. The Mavs won both those games and are clearly making it a point to take Paul out of the game as much as they can.
The series shifts back to Phoenix, where the Suns are 32-9 SU but just 23-23 ATS. What makes this different, though, could be the fact that Jalen Brunson stepped up once again while Luka Doncic was in the lineup as opposed to filling in like he did earlier in the postseason. Brunson has put up 46 total points over his past two games, taking some of the scoring load off Luka.
Phoenix hasn't been great at covering at home when they're favored (which is pretty much every game), so there's enough over the past two games to tell us the Mavs' game plan is clicking. Suns win, but Mavs cover here.
Top Player Prop: Chris Paul OVER 2.5 turnovers (+130) on DraftKings. It pains me to take this prop, but CP3 has had a rough stretch recently, and it seems like the Mavs' defense has their plan in place to make things more frustrating for Paul. His seven turnovers in Game 3 were shocking, and that came after having three in Game 2. Paul has been one of the all-time greats at protecting possessions, but this recent trend makes this plus-money prop worth a play.
BetQL Staff Pick: Mavericks +6. Luka Doncic has done everything for the Mavericks in this series, averaging 33.0 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 8.8 assists in 37.8 minutes. Jason Kidd has surrounded him with shooters, most notably giving Maxi Kleber heavy minutes off the bench in relief of Dwight Powell, which makes this Dallas team difficult to defend due to their spacing. I am not comfortable betting Dallas' moneyline because the Suns were dominant at home all year long and Chris Paul will not have three terrible games in a row, but I am very comfortable getting Dallas at +6 and think they keep this game very close. Per BetQL, Dallas is 31-17 ATS against teams with winning records this season. – Dan Karpuc
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including NBA player props, with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!