The second round of the NBA playoffs continues Thursday with a pair of Game 6s: Heat at 76ers (-2.5) and Suns (-2) at Mavericks. Both the Heat and Suns are up 3-2 in their respective series and will be looking to close out on the road. Can they punch their tickets to the Conference Finals? Don’t make any bets without looking at Thursday’s NBA odds, key betting trends, and expert picks from BetQL.
One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA model has gone 16-6 (73 percent) on O/U picks rated at least three stars (out of five) over the past 30 days for a total return of $855 on $100 bets!
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NBA Playoffs: Best bets, odds, expert picks, & betting trends for Thursday
Odds in this article are subject to change.
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
Heat at 76ers (-2.5), O/U 207
Trends: It was a short-lived moment where we thought the Sixers figured it out, wasn't it? Now, Miami is a win away from closing out Philly and moving on to the Eastern Conference Finals. One of the keys for the Heat in their 35-point win in Game 5 was better three-point shooting. They came in just under 40 percent as a team after shooting 20 and 23 percent, respectively, in the previous two losses in Philadelphia. Max Strus hit four triples to lead the way in Game 5.
Meanwhile, the Sixers were just 28 percent from downtown themselves. As a whole, the Sixers just couldn't make anything, shooting just 36.5 percent with just three players even hitting double-figures in scoring.
For the Sixers to extend this to a Game 7, they'll need to get back to the form they had in the two wins, which included much more from James Harden, while Joel Embiid tries to fight through a long list of injuries.
In the end, the Sixers look just too slow, beat up and disinterested to push this to seven games, so expect the Heat to close things out.
Top Player Prop: James Harden UNDER 20.5 points (-105) on DraftKings. What was I thinking, taking an OVER for Harden last game? We got duped, fooled, bamboozled, and hoodwinked by that short stretch of "Harden looking more like the old Harden" basketball. The Sixers looked like they got a taste of vacation down in South Beach, and Harden's 14 points on 38.5-percent shooting just took us back to what we've seen all playoffs (minus that 31-point outing in Game 4).
BetQL Staff Pick: Total OVER 207. The last time these two teams played in Philadelphia (Game 4), they combined for 224 points, and I can see a similar output occurring in this contest. The Sixers shot just 36.5 percent from the field in their Game 5 loss in Miami, and these two teams still combined for 205 points, so keep that in mind. Joel Embiid, James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, and Tobias Harris all had bad outings in their Game 5 loss, which was pretty shocking. As a team, Philly had more turnovers (15) than assists (14), which is never a recipe for success, especially in the playoffs. These teams shot a combined 65 triples in Game 5 and 68 in Game 4, so expect these two offenses to continue shooting the ball from beyond the arc in this one. In today’s perimeter-centric NBA, it’s difficult for me not to like the OVER at just 207 points. – Dan Karpuc
Suns (-2) at Mavericks, O/U 213.5
Trends: The Suns also find themselves in a potential series-clinching Game 6. Dallas has gotten a little more help from Jalen Brunson, who's 22.3 points per game over the past three have been a welcomed contribution, but it still hasn't helped the Mavs enough with their offensive flow.
Luka had 28 points and 11 rebounds in the 30-point loss last time out, but he acknowledged that the offense just slowed down too much, with the Mavs shooting just 38 percent from the field.
Chris Paul has been pretty much a non-factor over the past three games, averaging just 8.0 points, 7.0 assists, and 4.3 turnovers per game. He's also averaged four fouls per game to go along with all those less-than-stellar numbers. The Suns have still been able to win, though, along with covering in three of the five games this series, and should do the same to finish this off in six games.
Top Player Prop: Chris Paul OVER 2.5 turnovers (+115) on BetMGM. It's crazy even to say this, but Paul has been a net negative over his past three games, averaging 4.3 turnovers per game. Though the Suns were able to overcome his mistakes in Game 5, that doesn’t mean they won’t happen again in Game 6. Getting plus money on a prop that's hit in two of the past three games is worth a play, even if it happens to be someone that rarely has stretches like this.
BetQL Staff Pick: Suns -2. The Suns are coming off of a covered spread against the Mavericks, and they’ve covered the spread in five of their past seven games. And the Mavericks have failed to cover the spread in three of their past five games. I like the Suns to win this series tonight, and I think they can cover the spread in the process. – Lucy Burdge
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