The second round of the NBA playoffs concludes on Sunday with a pair of Game 7s: Bucks at Celtics (-5) and Mavericks at Suns (-6.5). These four teams have treated us to some fantastic games, and both casual fans and bettors alike are wondering if the Bucks and Mavs can pull of road upsets. Don’t make any bets without looking at Sunday's NBA odds, key betting trends, and expert picks from BetQL.
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NBA Playoffs: Best bets, odds, expert picks, & betting trends for Sunday
Odds in this article are subject to change.
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
Bucks at Celtics (-5), O/U 206.5
Trends: After simulating this game 10,000 times, BetQL is projecting the Bucks to shoot 43.3 percent from the field and the Celtics to shoot 42.9 percent, the Celtics to have 47.9 rebounds compared to 46.6 by the Bucks, and Milwaukee to turn the ball over 14.3 time compared to 13.9 by Boston. The model also projects the Bucks to make 13.9 three-pointers on 32.7-percent shooting from deep while the Celtics make 15 threes on 34.6-percent shooting from deep.
If you’re backing the Bucks ATS, you’ll be happy to know that under Mike Budenholzer, Milwaukee has gone 52-33 ATS coming off an upset loss as a favorite. Meanwhile, if you’re backing the Celtics ATS, you’ll be pleased to know that in the second half of the season, the Celtics have gone 27-10 ATS against teams that average 23 or more assists per game.
A couple player props that the model’s backing include Jrue Holiday OVER 6.5 assists (-130, DraftKings) since BetQL projects eight and Marcus Smart UNDER 2.5 made three-pointers (-115, DraftKings) since the model projects just one. All-in-all, this is going to be a physical, hard-fought battle between two of the best teams in the NBA.
BetQL Staff Pick: Celtics -5. The Celtics are the better overall team, and I expect the home court advantage to certainly come into play. Even if Giannis Antetokounmpo goes off (which he probably will), Milwaukee’s lack of depth will end up biting them and sending them home in the end.
Mavericks at Suns (-6.5), O/U 205
Trends: After simulating this game 10,000 times, BetQL is projecting Dallas to actually shoot better than Phoenix (45 percent to 43.9 percent). The Suns are expected to control the glass 46.3 to 43.3 and also commit fewer turnovers than the Mavs (16.1 to 11.8). However, the Mavs are projected to make 15.2 triples on 35.1-percent shooting while Phoenix is projected to make 14.2 triples on 35.7-percent shooting.
If you’re betting on Luka Doncic and the Mavs to pull off the outright upset, know that under Jason Kidd, Dallas has gone 14-3 SU after allowing 95 points or fewer. If you’re going to back the Suns to win and cover, know that Phoenix is 17-4 ATS avenging a loss against an opponent this season and under Monty Williams, the Suns have gone 37-13 ATS avenging a loss by 10-plus points and 33-12 ATS as a home favorite of six points or fewer. Those are all very powerful trends to be aware of.
A couple player props the model is backing include Reggie Bullock OVER 14.5 points, rebounds and assists (-125, FanDuel) since BetQL projects 18 and Chris Paul UNDER 17.5 points (-106, FanDuel) since BetQL projects 12.
BetQL Staff Pick: Total UNDER 205. Four consecutive UNDERs have won in this series, and with the slow pace the Mavericks tend to play at offensively and Phoenix’s team-first offensive mindset that prides itself on moving the ball for the highest-percentage shot, I am comfortable betting this UNDER despite the fact that it’s all the way down at 205 at the time of this writing.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including NBA player props, with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!