The second round of the NBA playoffs continues Monday with two more Game 1s: 76ers at Heat (-7.5) and Mavericks at Suns (-5.5). Despite winning their first-round series against the Raptors, the 76ers suffered a huge loss with Joel Embiid being ruled out indefinitely. That makes the Heat big favorites at home in Game 1. Meanwhile, can Luka Doncic and the Mavs knock off the regular season’s best team in Phoenix? Let’s take a look at tonight’s NBA odds, key betting trends and expert picks from BetQL before placing any bets.
It's worth noting that the BetQL NBA model has gone 37-29 (56 percent) on O/U picks rated three stars (out of five) and higher in the past 14 days for a total return of $400 on $100 bets.
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NBA Playoffs: Best bets, odds, expert picks, & betting trends for Monday
Odds in this article are subject to change.
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
Heat (-7.5) vs. 76ers, O/U 209
Trends: The huge news heading into this series is the health of Joel Embiid, who suffered a fractured orbital bone and concussion in Philadelphia’s Game 6 victory over the Raptors. He will miss this game, and his absence will put a ton of pressure on James Harden, Tobias Harris, and Tyrese Maxey. The Sixers have gone 6-8 without Embiid this season, and it will be fascinating to see how Doc Rivers formulates lineups with him out. These two teams split their four-game regular-season series 2-2.
Unfortunately for the Heat, they’re also dealing with the absence of one starter and the potential absence of another. Kyle Lowry (left hamstring) has already been ruled out for Game 1, and Jimmy Butler (right knee) is "questionable." Miami has a lot of experience playing without both at different points of the year, 12-7 without Lowry during the regular season and 2-0 in their opening-round series against the Hawks without him. They also went 14-11 without Butler in the regular season and won Game 5 against the Hawks without him. Unlike the Sixers, Erik Spoelstra had the benefit of a ton of depth on his roster, including presumed Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro and former All-Star Victor Oladipo on the second unit.
Under Spoelstra, the Heat have gone just 4-16 ATS off a close win by three or fewer points over a division rival, but they’ve also gone 18-5 ATS versus teams that make 36 percent or more of their three-point attempts this season. Further, Miami has gone 16-2 SU (+14.1 units, 67.1-percent ROI) after allowing 105 or fewer points at home this year. Keep an eye on the injury report, but it’s easy to see why oddsmakers project it to be a low-scoring affair with a total under 210 points.
Top Player Prop: James Harden OVER 42.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists. BetQL is projecting Harden to score 25 points with nine rebounds, and 12 assists (46 P+R+A). The point guard has seen a massive usage bump with Embiid off the floor this season and should have the ball in his hands on most offensive possessions. If there’s a time for a "vintage" Harden performance, it’s now. The logic makes sense, the projections confirm it, and I’m going to bet this for sure.
BetQL Staff Pick: Heat -7.5. These two teams will likely play very differently from each other in Game 1. On one end, the 76ers will rely on James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris on offense without Embiid. On the other end, the Heat genuinely play a team-first style of ball and have a lot of depth that consistently produces. Miami has gone 18-5 ATS against teams that make 36 percent or more of their three-point attempts this season. I fully expect Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo to dominate Philly’s second unit, and the Sixers won’t have an answer on their roster for Bam Adebayo. It’s very difficult to see Philadelphia keeping this game close without Embiid. Give me the Heat to win and cover the spread.
Heat (-7.5) vs. 76ers, O/U 209
Trends: After finishing the regular season with the best record in the NBA, the Suns had to deal with adversity in the first round of the playoffs when All-Star Devin Booker went down with a right hamstring injury. However, he returned later in the series, and Phoenix got the job done against the New Orleans Pelicans to move on. Meanwhile, the Mavericks dealt with a bit of adversity of their own since superstar Luka Doncic missed their first three games against the Jazz because of a left calf injury, but they were able to win two games without him as guys like Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie stepped up. Both of these teams enter Game 1 at full health, with the lone exceptions of Tim Hardaway Jr. (left foot) and Dario Saric (right knee), both of whom had previously been ruled out for the season.
Both of these teams have strong trends working in their favor, which makes this game very tough to bet on without using the BetQL NBA model. The Mavericks have gone 13-1 ATS after scoring 100 points or less on the road this season (they just won 98-96 in Utah); while under Monty Williams, the Suns have gone 31-12 ATS as a home favorite of six or fewer points. The Suns have also gone 27-4 SU (+20.1 units, 57.4-percent ROI) against teams that score fewer than 108 points per game this season (the Mavs average 107.8).
Per the BetQL model’s simulation, the Mavericks will win the rebounding advantage (48.1 to 42.4), but the Suns will commit fewer turnovers (10 vs. 16.3 for Dallas). We also project Chris Paul to record 13 points, five rebounds and nine-plus assists in Game 1 after an historic performance in his last game. For every player prop value and more simulation data, sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!
Top Player Prop: Chris Paul OVER 9.5 assists. Paul led the NBA with 10.8 assists per game during the regular season and averaged 11.3 in Phoenix’s opening-round series against the Pelicans. While Dallas’ defense has been solid and the Mavs tend to play at a very slow pace, it’s very difficult to not like CP3 to get into double-digits.
BetQL Staff Pick: -5.5. The Suns have covered the spread in each of their past two games, and I really like them to make it three in Game 1 against the Mavericks. They also covered two of their past three spreads at home in the series against the Pelicans, and a major trend pointed out by BetQL is that Monty Williams is 31-12 ATS as a home favorite of six points or fewer while coaching Phoenix. With all of this considered, I’m all-in on the Suns to start this series with a cover. – Lucy Burdge
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