The NBA playoffs continue Thursday with three Game 6's for bettors to target: 76ers (-1.5) at Raptors, Suns (-2) at Pelicans, and Mavericks (-2) at Jazz. The Suns, 76ers, and Mavs will all be looking to close out their respective series on the road, but don’t count out the home underdogs. Before you place any bets on Thursday's games, let’s take a look at tonight’s NBA odds, key betting trends, and expert picks from BetQL.
It's worth noting that the BetQL NBA model has gone 13-6 (69 percent) on O/U picks rated three stars (out of five) and higher in the past 14 days for a total return of $582 on $100 bets.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game, so sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!
NBA Playoffs: Best bets, odds, expert picks, & betting trends for Thursday
Odds in this article are subject to change.
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
76ers (-1.5) at Raptors, O/U 209.5
Trends: Will the Sixers finally be able to close out this series? They're 0-2 since Joel Embiid started playing with an injured right thumb. Meanwhile, Toronto has played with a "we're not supposed to win now anyway" attitude.
That being said, an interesting but very specific trend BetQL found is that Nick Nurse is 0-8 ATS coming off an upset win of 15 points or more as a road underdog while coaching Toronto. Again, it's very specific, but it could also very useful here.
On the other side of that, though, Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in their past seven road games, and coupling that with the Embiid injury, James Harden having a quiet series, and Doc Rivers' history of blowing series leads, the pressure is getting heavier and heavier on the Sixers.
Top Player Prop: Tyrese Maxey 20-plus points (+114) on FanDuel. Maxey's scoring has actually gone down quite a bit since he dropped 38 in Game 1 and another 23 points in Game 2, but with James Harden's quiet series and Maxey having the ability to get hot at any moment, this is a solid price for someone who's gone OVER this number twice in the series already.
BetQL Staff Pick: Raptors ML (+105). If you can get plus-money on the Raptors' moneyline, take it while you can. Given such a small spread added to the growing worry that's clearly floating around the Philly locker room, there's a good chance the Raptors win and force a Game 7.
Suns (-2) at Pelicans, O/U 214
Trends: The Suns just aren't the same team without Devin Booker (right hamstring). No matter who steps up, whether it's Chris Paul and his 19-point fourth quarters or Mikal Bridges getting 31 points last time out, they're still missing that scoring and outside shooting element Booker brings.
The Suns are still the better team, but they have been so-so against the spread on the road, going 17-14 ATS compared to 25-6 SU. The spread is tight here, and the Pels have been competitive enough to keep this close, but the Suns should still win this game.
Also, the OVER has still hit in three of the five games so far -- three straight, in fact, before going UNDER in Game 5.
Top Player Prop: Brandon Ingram OVER 1.5 made three-pointers (+105) on DraftKings. Ingram has played some of the best basketball of his career in this series, averaging better than 28 points per game while shooting almost 43 percent from deep. He's averaging just 1.8 made three-pointers so far, but he's actually had three in a game twice this series. Given what we've seen, it's fair to expect another big performance from Ingram in an elimination game.
BetQL Staff Pick: Pelicans +2. The Pelicans have covered the spread in five of their past seven home games, including a 15-point outright win in Game 4 as two-point 'dogs. So, they’ve shown they can handle even a small spread like this at home against this Suns team minus Booker. A trend favoring them to cover here is that the Suns are just 13-25 ATS after allowing 105 points or fewer this season, and New Orleans put up 97 in Game 5. – Lucy Burdge
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
Mavericks (-2) at Jazz, O/U 209
Trends: The Jazz are now 1-4 ATS in this series and just lost Game 5 by 25 points. Yikes. Utah did get some good news when the MRI on Donovan Mitchell's left hamstring came up negative, so he's still hopeful to play in this game and clearly be a major factor in how this game could go.
It's interesting to see the regression in Dallas' offense with Luka Doncic back, going from around 110 points per game in the first three games without him to around 100 in their past two. That's what happens when you bring back someone who controls the ball on every possession for your team and guys like Jalen Brunson see their role reduced.
The Jazz still look like a team that's ready to head on vacation. The Mavs already have won once on the road in this series, which feels like it will come to an end tonight.
Top Player Prop: Luka Doncic 10-plus rebounds (+108) on FanDuel. Doncic has 23 total rebounds in the two games he's played in this series, hitting this prop both times. If you want to go back further, he's averaging 9.3 boards over his past 10 games, and he averaged 11 per game in the three times he saw the Jazz during the regular season.
BetQL Staff Pick: Mavericks -2. Luka and the Mavericks dominated Game 5 in Dallas, winning 102-77, and they’re the more cohesive team on both ends of the court right now. To make matters more troubling for Utah, Mitchell is reportedly dealing with a bi-lateral left quadriceps contusion heading into this game. He scored just nine points on 4-of-15 shooting in the last game after averaging 30.3 points in the first four games of the series, so assuming that he’s not close to 100 percent, it’s even harder to have faith in the home team. Plus, per BetQL, Dallas has gone 26-17 ATS on the road. Dallas won Game 3 in Utah (126-118) and lost by one (100-99) in Game 4, so they shouldn’t be afraid to go into hostile territory. I expect the Mavs to take care of business, control the pace of the game and most likely put an end to the Mitchell-Gobert era in Utah with a win (and cover). – Dan Karpuc
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including NBA player props, with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!