The NBA playoffs continue Monday with three more games for bettors to target: Celtics at Nets (-1), Raptors at 76ers (-8), and Jazz at Mavericks (-3). The Celtics and 76ers will both be looking to close out their series, while Luka Doncic and the Mavs are suddenly favorites with the series knotted at two games apiece. Before you place any bets on Monday’s games, let’s take a look at tonight’s NBA odds, key betting trends, and expert picks from BetQL.
One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA model has gone 15-6 (72 percent) on O/U picks rated three stars (out of five) and higher in the past 14 days for a total return of $764 on $100 bets.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game, so sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!
NBA Playoffs: Best bets, odds, expert picks, & betting trends for Monday
Odds in this article are subject to change.
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
Celtics at Nets (-1), O/U 220
Trends: This season has been a disaster for the Nets, and it doesn't show any signs of getting better at this point. The Celtics are on the verge of a sweep, and what was once targeted as the Ben Simmons' debut, is now just another game where Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will try to find themselves.
The Celtics are 16-4 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record this season, and even though every win so far for Boston has been single-digits, each game has felt further and further away from being competitive. Durant is averaging just 22 points per game on 36.5-percent shooting to go along with 17 turnovers in the three games. Irving is putting up just 21.7 points and shooting just 33 percent from deep.
The Nets look ready for vacation while the Celtics are clearly built to get to the NBA Finals with the way they're playing on both ends of the court. It sure is hard to lean anywhere other than a Boston win and sweep tonight.
Top Player Prop: Jayson Tatum 35+ Points (+160) on DraftKings. Tatum is averaging just under 30 points a game against the Nets in this series, and with a chance to put Brooklyn out of their misery and wrap this series up, Tatum hitting this mark is more than reasonable, especially coming off a 39-point game in Game 3. He's also making three triples per game along with almost nine free throws, so his scoring can come in a variety of ways tonight against a broken Nets team.
BetQL Staff Pick: Celtics -105 ML. The Nets are done, plain and simple. They look frustrated and defeated, and when Irving is talking about them still "jelling," it's clear they have no confidence in themselves either. Forget any trends or stats, just look at what we see on the court. This is a team that has no chemistry, Durant looks like a shadow of himself, while the Celtics look like a team that could win it all. Boston looks ready to put the Nets out of their misery tonight and then we can all finally move on from this debacle of a season in Brooklyn.
Raptors at 76ers (-8), O/U 209.5
Trends: The biggest question here will continue to be around Joel Embiid's pain tolerance. That injured right thumb clearly was an issue last game, especially early on, as Embiid shot just 7-for-16 from the field with 21 points. The Sixers will need at least a decent outing from the MVP candidate if they want to close out this series tonight.
The Raptors, who got 34 points from Pascal Siakam in their Game 4 win, are 30-18 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season, and they have shown a fight with their backs against the wall. They clearly hope to take advantage of the Embiid injury again. To make things more difficult for the Raptors, though, Fred VanVleet is out with a strained left hip flexor, and even though the Raptors are 23-14 ATS on the road this year, it will be a tall task to overcome the loss of VanVleet and win on the road to keep their season alive.
Toronto certainly has a chance to cover here, but it's hard to see it winning outright.
Top Player Prop: James Harden UNDER 9.5 Assists (+108) on FanDuel. Harden's assists have gone down significantly since Game 1 when he had 14. There's obviously a little more risk here given his ability to put up big numbers, but with Embiid struggling, Harden doesn't have as many easy assists as usual going to the MVP candidate consistently. Harden hasn't been great in this series as a whole, so it's worth a little sprinkle on the UNDER here given what we've seen recently and the price you'd get for even a solid nine assists from him tonight.
BetQL Staff Pick: Raptors +8. Doc Rivers with a 3-1 lead? Say no more, fam. This guy couldn't finish off a series with a big lead to save his life, and this is just another nightmare scenario for him. Scottie Barnes is back for Toronto, but VanVleet is out for this contest in Philly. While his offense will be missed, he is a defensive liability, so I'm not sure it's that huge of a deal. Embiid is still dealing with a thumb injury that will require surgery, and you could tell it was bothering him in Game 4 with his far below-average shooting. Philadelphia might win and advance, but I'll take the +8 all day with Toronto. Rivers is far too unreliable in these situations to trust. – Matt Horner
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
Jazz at Mavericks (-3), O/U 212.5
Trends: We're now in a best-of-three series with things locked up 2-2 between these teams. Getting 30 points and 10 boards from Luka Doncic in his return in Game 4 was obviously important for the Mavs, but Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell spoiled that with their game-winning alley-oop with 11 seconds left.
Dallas sits -150 on the moneyline, and Jason Kidd is 14-0 SU as a home favorite of -250 or less this year in his first year coaching Dallas. The Mavs continue to be a strong UNDER bet, just 9-20 O/U this year at home, and are 3-1 ATS in this series, as well. I'm leaning toward the UNDER again here with two of the four games already doing just that.
Top Player Prop Bet: Rudy Gobert To Score 15+ Points (+134) on FanDuel. Gobert has scored 32 combined points over the past two games while shooting 60 percent in this series. Sure, he's not getting a ton of shots, but he's taken 14 over his past two games and is showing more aggression offensively as he tries to help keep the Jazz's season alive. His points and attempts have gone up each game so far in this series, and that plus money on a decent point total is worth a play tonight in Game 5.
BetQL Staff Pick: Total UNDER 213. In Doncic’s return, the Jazz pulled off a 100-99 win, easily finishing UNDER the 214-point total. Now the series is tied 2-2 and will head back to Dallas, where the UNDER has gone 30-12-1 (71.4 percent) this season. That’s the highest rate in the NBA by a huge margin. Meanwhile, the UNDER has gone 25-17-1 in Utah’s road games this season and that 59.5 percent UNDER rate ranks second in the NBA. These two teams have played at the slowest pace of any playoff series (91.00), per NBA.com, which isn’t much of a surprise since the Mavs ranked dead last in pace during the regular season while the Jazz ranked 23rd. With Doncic back, I expect the Mavs to play at a very methodological, half-court tempo on offense and to continuously get set on the defensive end. – Dan Karpuc
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