The first round of the NBA playoffs continue Monday with three more games for bettors to target: Raptors at 76ers (-7.5), Jazz (-5) at Mavericks, and Nuggets at Warriors (-7). The Sixers and Warriors both won decisively in their respective Game 1s, while the Mavs put up a fight even without Luka Doncic before losing (and failing to cover +5.5) at home against Utah. Before you place any bets on Monday’s games, let’s take a look at tonight’s NBA odds, key betting trends, notable player props, and expert picks from BetQL.
One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA model remains red hot, going 50-28 (64 percent) on picks over the past seven days for a total return of $778 on $100 bets. That hot streak includes an absurd 10-4 (72 percent) on all O/U picks, too.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game, so sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!
NBA Playoffs: Best bets, odds, expert picks, & betting trends for Monday
Odds in this article are subject to change.
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
Raptors at 76ers (-7.5), O/U 216.5
Trends: Having already been blown out in Game 1, Toronto now has to deal with Scottie Barnes being out due to a sprained left ankle and both Thad Young (left thumb) and Gary Trent Jr. (non-COVID illness) "doubtful". Tyrese Maxey put up 38 points in Game 1, and the Sixers pummeled the Raptors in a game where Toronto looked overmatched. One thing to keep in mind, as BetQL points out, is that Nick Nurse is 25-6 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games while coaching Toronto. Sure, that includes the regular season so the sample is a bit watered down, but the coaching job Nurse has put together this year for an overachieving Raptors team can't be overlooked. That being said, the likely result here is another Sixers win and cover, with the short-handed Raptors just not having enough to keep up with Joel Embiid and James Harden (and Maxey if he has another big game).
Top Player Prop: Joel Embiid OVER 1.5 Made 3s (+115) on DraftKings: Embiid hit at least two triples in three of his past four regular-season games, and getting a low number like this at plus money is definitely worth a play. Yes, Embiid was 0-for-2 from 3 in Game 1, but he steps out on the perimeter enough to make this prop valuable enough to consider. Toronto is also looking like they'll be a bit short-handed, and missing a great defender in Barnes can have a trickle-down effect on the rest of the team.
BetQL Staff Pick: 76ers -7: This line just feels short to me. While it could definitely be a trap, how is it only Sixers -7 after the news that Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent and Thad Young will all presumably be out with injury/Illness? The Sixers just blew out Toronto by 20 with them on the court, and the line moves only 2.5 points? The Raptors need this game badly if they want any chance in this series, but Philly is just the far better team and they have much more depth right now. In order to get it done, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam will have to have the games of their lives while backpacking Toronto. I just don't see it happening here. – Matt Horner
Jazz at Mavericks (-5.5), O/U 206
Trends: It's all about Luka Doncic's status again, as he likely won't be playing for the Mavs due to a left calf strain. Dallas came close to covering +5.5 in Game 1, with UNDER 208 hitting, as well. That being said, you just can't expect the Mavs to be as competitive against a Jazz team that's at full strength while the do-everything guy for your team is sitting out with an injury.
The safest play here is targeting the UNDER, which also happens to be one of tonight's best bets from BetQL, with Dallas likely trying to slow the pace as much as they can, and banking on their defense to at least keep them in this game.
Top Player Prop: Donovan Mitchell OVER 27.5 Points & 2.5 3-Pointers (boosted to +135 at BetRivers): I love the value in this odds boost, especially because BetQL projects Mitchell will make four three-pointers tonight in Game 2. Those made 3s should help Mitchell hit the OVER on this point total, as well. He’s coming off a 32-point Game 1 performance and averaging 25.9 points this season, so I see no reason why he can't go OVER 27.5 points again tonight. Considering BetQL's projection, I love the chances for Mitchell to go OVER both of these props tonight, giving this odds boost great value. – Lucy Burdge
BetQL Staff Pick: Jazz -5.5: It's going to be a difficult task for the Mavs to play without Doncic again in Game 2, simple as that. Dallas failed to cover in Game 1, and with Luka likely out again, this line could end up moving more once that news is made official. He just handles too much for the Mavs, from the scoring load to being the playmaker for this offense, and that absence will continue to be too much to overcome for Dallas.
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
Nuggets at Warriors (-7), O/U 223.5
Trends: When we talk about guys like Luka carrying a team, another name that comes to mind is Nikola Jokic. Denver has a huge mountain to climb against a Warriors team that looks ready to get back to the NBA Finals.
Jokic might be the MVP favorite, but how can he compete with this Warriors' lineup? On top of what you expect from Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green, Golden State also got 30 points from Jordan Poole in Game 1. Denver just doesn't have the weapons to keep up on either end of the court, and the Warriors should easily take this game at home and jump to a 2-0 series lead.
BetQL Staff Pick: Warriors -7: Despite Steph Curry playing just 22 minutes in his first game back from a left foot injury, the Warriors shot 52.4 percent from the field and won Game 1 by 16 points. They also posted 33 assists in what was an efficient offensive showing, as Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Jordan Poole, and Andrew Wiggins did most of the heavy lifting. Per BetQL, the Warriors have gone 14-5 ATS after a home win by 10 or more points this season, which adds more confidence to this pick.
Outside of Nikola Jokic, I don’t trust a single player on Denver’s roster, including Will Barton, who scored 24 points in Game 1. I wouldn’t bank on that happening again. Overall, it’s hard for me to see the Nuggets keeping this game close even if Jokic goes nuts with his individual stat line. – Dan Karpuc
Top Player Prop Bet: Nikola Jokic OVER 49.5 P+R+A (-115) on FanDuel: Jokic was held to just 25 points in Game 1, but as we know, the Nuggets can only go as far as the MVP favorite can take them. That being said, Jokic will continue to get more than enough touches to hit this number, and he can very easily put up more than the 25 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists we saw to open the postseason. Oh, and BetQL also projects somewhere around 52 combined points, rebounds, and assists from Jokic, so the model is also high on his Game 2 numbers.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including NBA player props, with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!