The second round of the NBA playoffs continues Monday with two more Game 4s: Celtics at Bucks (-1) and Grizzlies at Warriors (-10). Milwaukee and Golden State each took 2-1 series leads at home this weekend, but can the Celtics and Grizzlies even the series on the road tonight? Before you make any bets, let’s take a look at Monday’s NBA odds, key betting trends, and expert picks from BetQL.
One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA model has gone 22-10 (69 percent) across all bets over the past three days. If you bet $100 on each, you’d be up $796 right now!
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game, so sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!
NBA Playoffs: Best bets, odds, expert picks, & betting trends for Monday
Odds in this article are subject to change.
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
Celtics at Bucks (-1), O/U 212.5
Trends: Throughout the playoffs, the Celtics' defense has been harassing stars and making their lives miserable. Even Giannis Antetokounmpo has had issues at times scoring, going 9-for-25 in Game 1, and starting just 2-of-12 for five points in the first half of Game 2.
Last time out was a different story, though, with Giannis putting up 42 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists while shooting 16-of-30 from the floor. There's a reason why he's now wearing the crown as "Best Player in the World."
If you couple that with a double-double from Brook Lopez (13 and 10), another 25 points from Jrue Holiday, and 52 points in the paint from Milwaukee overall, Boston might be in trouble.
These games continue to go UNDER, as well, and there's a solid chance this happens again, with another close game coming down to the wire.
Top Player Prop: Giannis Antetokounmpo to score 35-plus points (+185) on FanDuel. Giannis has seen his scoring and shooting percentage go up every game of this series after going 9-for-25 in Game 1, and starting just 2-of-12 for five points in the first half of Game 2 (finished at 40.7 percent). Last time out was complete domination, though, with Giannis putting up 42 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists while shooting 16-of-30 from the floor. There's a reason why he's now wearing the crown as "Best Player in the World," and the Celtics may be in trouble now.
BetQL Staff Pick: Celtics ML -105. The Celtics have a great chance to pull even in this series in Game 4, and I don’t think they’re going down without a fight against Giannis and the Bucks. BetQL points out that Boston is 20-6 straight-up against teams making at least 46 percent of their shots in the second half of the season. I see Jayson Tatum putting up far more than the 10 points he did in Game 3, and I think the Celtics can bounce back from a lot of the mistakes they’ve been making and get the win here. – Lucy Burdge
Grizzlies at Warriors (-10), O/U 223
Trends: We saw the real Warriors in Game 3, and that rhythm will carry over to Game 4, with or without Ja Morant (right knee). Golden State went from shooting just 42 percent in that loss to Memphis that tied the series 1-1 to an incredible 63 percent in Game 3, putting up 142 points and reminding everyone this is still the same core that completely changed the NBA not that long ago. It will likely continue to be physical given what's gone on in each game, but it's hard to throw someone to the floor when they're shooting from 30 feet out like the Warriors can.
Golden State is 15-5 ATS after a win by 10 points or more while at home this season, according to BetQL's trends. Even though they likely won't shoot over 60 percent again, this is where they shine the most, and experience in these pivotal playoff games matters. That's something the young Grizzlies just don't have yet.
Top Player Prop: Jaren Jackson Jr. OVER 15.5 points (-110) on DraftKings. With Ja Morant likely out for Game 4, this is a chance for Jackson to fill the void. He's averaged 19.8 points per game on 15 shots per game over the series. There's bound to be more shots to go around, and he should be able to take advantage tonight.
BetQL Staff Pick: Warriors -10. I predicted that the Warriors’ home court advantage would come into play against a young Grizzlies squad, and that’s what happened. Now Ja Morant is doubtful due to a right knee injury, and even though Memphis played well without him earlier in the season, they’re going to miss the elite individual performances he put up in this series and generally in the playoffs so far. The Warriors have gone 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home so far in the playoffs, and I can see another blowout win in this matchup. They’ve gone 10-2 ATS in their past 12 home games dating back to the regular season. I like them to keep it rolling tonight. – Dan Karpuc
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