The NBA playoffs continue Friday with three more games for bettors to target: Heat (-1.5) at Hawks, Bucks (-1.5), and Suns (-1.5) at Pelicans. The tight point spreads hint at a trio of intriguing Game 3s tonight, especially after the underdog Bulls and Pelicans have pulled even in their respective series. Before you place any bets on Friday’s games, let’s take a look at tonight’s NBA odds, key betting trends, and expert picks from BetQL.
One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA model continues to roll through the playoffs, going 112-63 (64 percent) on all picks rated three stars and higher the past two weeks for a total return of $1,023 on $100 bets!
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game, so sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!
NBA Playoffs: Best bets, odds, expert picks, & betting trends for Friday
Odds in this article are subject to change.
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
Heat (-1.5) at Hawks, O/U 221.5
Trends: Unbelievably, the Hawks have gone 0-41 ATS in their 41 outright losses this season. That might be the most insane betting trend of all-time! Despite that horrendous trend, consider these positive ones: the Hawks have gone 13-1 SU and 11-2-1 ATS when playing at home against teams with winning records in the second half of the season. They've also gone 14-4 ATS against good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game in the second half of the season, and 20-9 SU after two straight losses against that same.
The Heat have gone 17-3 ATS against teams that shoot 36 percent or better from three-point range and 14-2 SU in the second half of the season versus poor defensive teams that allow their opponents to shoot 46 percent or better from the field. There are even more trends, player prop values and the model's best bets on BetQL’s Heat-Hawks game page!
Top Player Prop: Kyle Lowry UNDER 13.5 points. The Heat scored exactly 115 points in Games 1 and 2, but Lowry scored 10 points and nine points, respectively. In five meetings against the Hawks, including the regular season, Lowry has gone UNDER 13.5 points, and BetQL is projecting him to score just nine again in this matchup. It’s pretty clear that Miami doesn’t need scoring out of Lowry since guys like Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro are the go-to options.
BetQL Staff Pick: Heat 1.5. The Heat won Game 1 by 24 and Game 2 by 10 and simply are the better team on both sides of the ball. Limiting Trae Young will be of utmost importance, and BetQL is projecting him to finish with 24 points and eight assists. That type of production might be enough for star players on other teams, but the Hawks need elite numbers out of Young, who has to be the best player on the floor for them to win. I don’t like the chances of that happening. Give me the Heat -1.5, and I like them all the way up to the -4 or -5 range.
Bucks (-1.5) at Bulls, O/U 223
Trends: After a 93-86 Bucks victory in Game 1, the Bulls evened up the series with a 114-110 Game 2 upset win. After sweeping the regular season series and winning Game 1, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Co. lost their first game all season against the Bulls in Game 2. However, there are a lot of trends on their side in this one.
Under Mike Budenholzer, the Bucks have gone 44-19 ATS against division opponents, 18-8 ATS as a road favorite this season and 16-5 ATS on the road against poor defensive pressure teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game. Of course, most of those games were with All-Star Khris Middleton in the lineup, and he's expected to miss the rest of the playoffs because of a sprained left MCL. See if the BetQL model's best ATS bet for Bucks-Bulls still reflects those trends.
Top Player Prop: DeMar DeRozan OVER 0.5 made 3s.. DeRozan has gone just 3-for-17 from deep against the Bucks this season, including the regular season. However, it’s important to note that the volume has been there. He’s taken multiple three-point attempts in every meeting against Milwaukee, and BetQL is projecting him to make one in Game 3. All you need is one to go in to win this bet!
BetQL Staff Pick: Bucks -1.5. The Bucks are slight favorites over the Bulls in Game 3 despite Middleton's injury, and I think they can take this one by a good margin and pull ahead in this series. Some trends favoring them to cover this spread are that the team is 16-5 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 13 or fewer turnovers per game while on the road this season, and they are 18-8 ATS as a road favorite. Plus, Mike Budenholzer is 44-19 ATS vs. division opponents while coaching Milwaukee, so I see the Bucks covering this spread. – Lucy Burdge
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
Suns (-1.5) at Pelicans, O/U 216.5
Trends: The Suns have gone 14-3 ATS avenging a loss to an opponent this season, and since the Pelicans pulled off the Game 2 win to even up this series, the trend is active. Devin Booker (right hamstring) will miss this game, which makes betting on it pretty difficult (if you don't use BetQL, that is).
The Suns have gone 25-16 ATS (61 percent) on the road, which is impressive, but their absurd 32-9 SU record (78.1 percent) on the road was 11.4 percentage points better than the next-best team. They've also gone 24-5 SU (82.8 percent) as a road favorite. We're listing a bunch of player prop values, including multiple five-star Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton prop bets, on BetQL’s Suns-Pelicans game page.
BetQL Staff Pick: Suns-Pelicans UNDER 216.5. This series has been flipped on its head with Booker out for at least Game 3. In seven games from Dec. 2-16 without Booker in the lineup, the Suns managed to go 5-2 straight-up (albeit against only two true playoff teams in that span), but they were just 3-4 ATS and 3-4 O/U. When Booker missed another game April 3, the Suns lost by 21 at OKC, failing to hit the OVER and cover.
Even with the total falling all the way from 222 since Booker's injury, I'm still leaning toward the UNDER here. New Orleans was 34-50 O/U during the regular season, including 14-24 after a win and 24-37 as the underdog. Plus, the UNDER has hit in 12 of the Pelicans' past 17 games. Meanwhile, the Suns were just 41-41 O/U during the regular season, including 4-14 after a loss and had hit six straight UNDERs going into Game 2. Take away Booker, and the UNDER is looking strong again for Game 3. – Brad Pinkerton
Top Player Prop Bet: Mikal Bridges UNDER 16.5 points. Bridges is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA, but he’s still developing as an offensive player. Despite the fact that Booker will be out, I wouldn’t bet on Bridges to be a stable, high-volume source of points. BetQL is projecting him to score just 12 points, and I’d expect guys like Chris Paul, DeAndre Ayton, Cam Johnson, and Cameron Payne to pick up more of the scoring slack.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including NBA player props, with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!