The second round of the NBA playoffs continues Friday with a pair of Game 3s: Heat (-3) at 76ers and Suns at Mavericks (-1). Despite both home teams facing 0-2 series deficits, these are two tight spreads, so expect some exciting games Friday night. Before you make any bets, let’s take a look at the NBA odds, key betting trends, and expert picks from BetQL.
One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA model is 6-1 (86 percent) on spread picks rated at least two stars in the past seven days, good for a total return of $446 on $100 bets.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game, so sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!
NBA Playoffs: Best bets, odds, expert picks, & betting trends for Friday
Odds in this article are subject to change.
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
Heat (-3) at 76ers, O/U 210
Trends: The 76ers will not be getting Joel Embiid (concussion, orbital fracture) back for Game 3, but with the way this series has gone so far, even if the MVP finalist was out there, how much of a difference would it make?
James Harden again was a shell of himself. After putting up just 19 points per game in the first round, Harden is averaging just 18 ppg on 39.3-percent shooting and a dismal 25 percent from deep against the Heat. Even his assists are down now at just seven per game.
As for Friday, the line will stay close for the most part given the Heat are playing on the road, but Miami likely wins this outright and the final breath for the Sixers' season will be closing in.
Top Player Prop: P.J. Tucker OVER 1.5 made three-pointers (+176) on FanDuel. Averaging two made triples per game so far in this series, all you need is Tucker lining up in the corner a few times this game and he's more than likely to hit the OVER on this total. In fact, he's made exactly two in both games against the 76ers, and he also went OVER a third time in his past five games against Atlanta. There's solid value on a number that he regularly hits.
BetQL Staff Pick: Heat -3. The Heat have won and covered the spread in Games 1 and 2, and with Joel Embiid out again for Philly, it’s impossible for me not to like Miami here. James Harden isn’t going to transform into the Houston version that could dominate every game offensively. Even if he could, it likely still wouldn’t be enough because Philly doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with the Heat, who have a much deeper roster. Per BetQL, the Heat are now 20-5 ATS against teams that have made 36 percent or more of their three-point attempts this season, and I expect them to notch another win and cover here. – Dan Karpuc
Suns at Mavericks (EVEN), O/U 220
Trends: Dallas had a chance to steal one on the road in Game 2 until Chris Paul once again took over the fourth quarter with 14 points. The Suns outscored the Mavs 40-26 in that final period, as well, running away with a 20-point win.
The Mavericks now head home in an 0-2 hole, desperately hoping for help from more than just Luka Doncic, who scored 35 points on 13-for-22 shooting after a 45-point performance in Game 1. Doncic has averaged 40 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists through the first two games against the Suns, but their next-leading scorer is Maxi Kleber at 14. Reggie Bullock (11.5) and Jalen Brunson (11) as the only others averaging double figures.
The Suns have covered both games in this series and in four straight overall, plus the OVER has hit in both games and in six of the Suns' past seven games.
Top Player Prop: Chris Paul double-double (+125) on BetMGM. CP3 hasn't had double-digit assists in his past three games, but with the Suns up 2-0 and completely controlling Dallas in the fourth quarter of Game 2, he could start looking to get others involved with a little momentum and cushion in the series. Paul loves to spread things around early, and it's been the fourth quarters where he's taking over the scoring when the Suns have needed it. But he's a natural facilitator and due for a big game in the assist column. He had five straight double-digit assist games to start off the postseason, so this is solid value.
BetQL Staff Pick: Total UNDER 220. Both games in this series have gone way OVER the totals, as Dallas has tried to keep up with Phoenix offensively rather than slowing the Suns down with their trademark defense. I think the Mavs will go to extremes to slow the pace and control Game 3 at home, making this 220 total -- which is the highest of the series so far -- look like a nice countertrend value. The Mavs were 12-31 O/U (72-percent UNDER) at home this season and 9-21 O/U as home favorites, so keep an eye on the spread to see if that second trend is active, as well. – Brad Pinkerton
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