The second round of the NBA playoffs continues Friday with two more Game 6s: Celtics at Bucks (-1.5) and Grizzlies at Warriors (-8.5). The Bucks and Warriors lead their respective series 3-2 and will be looking to close out at home Friday night, but can the road 'dogs pull any upsets? Don’t make any bets without looking at Friday’s NBA odds, key betting trends, and expert picks from BetQL.
One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA model has gone 16-6 (73 percent) on O/U picks rated at least three stars (out of five) over the past 30 days for a total return of $855 on $100 bets!
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NBA Playoffs: Best bets, odds, expert picks, & betting trends for Friday
Odds in this article are subject to change.
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
Celtics at Bucks (-1.5), O/U 211
Trends: The Celtics led by 14 points in the fourth quarter of Game 5 and still lost. Over the past 25 postseasons, that's tied for the largest blown lead in the fourth quarter in franchise history, according to ESPN. That's a tough thing to come back from mentally, especially with the way Jrue Holiday single-handedly stopped them defensively late in the game.
The Bucks' three-point shooting made it that much harder to hold that lead, with Milwaukee going 44.8 percent from deep compared to just 32.3 percent for Boston. Add that to the fact that the Celtics were outrebounded 49-36, and suddenly all the momentum swings back in Milwaukee's favor. Now, if Robert Williams (left knee) can get back out there and be productive for the Celtics, he's a huge difference-maker on the glass and defensively, but all that is still to be determined.
With the game back in Milwaukee, it's not wrong to want to lean to a Bucks cover and win, but keep in mind Boston already covered +1.5 in their eight-point road win in Game 4. Each team has punched back after a loss, which means the Celtics are due a win to force a Game 7, which is where I'm cautiously leaning here.
Top Player Prop: Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 33.5 points (-115) on DraftKings. Giannis started off the series against Boston shooting just 38.4 percent from the field. The Celtics clearly were doing the best they could to carry over their success on Kevin Durant into this series. In the past three games, though, Antetokounmpo has shot 51.7 percent, averaging 38.7 points, 13.7 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game while taking just under 30 shots a game.
BetQL Staff Pick: Celtics +1.5. The Celtics absolutely need a win here, and I think they’ll get it in this one and cover this spread. They lost that complete heartbreaker to the Bucks in Game 5, but they showed sparks of greatness that can really come through to pull off a Game 6 win. Jayson Tatum was dominant in that last game with 34 points, while Jaylen Brown had 26 points and Al Horford showed he’s aging in reverse. They’ve shown they can keep up with the Bucks in this series, and I think they’ll pull off a win. This game might be played on Friday the 13th, but I think the luck of the Irish will be on the Celtics’ side. – Lucy Burdge
Grizzlies at Warriors (-8.5), O/U 217.5
Trends: Maybe Steph Curry shouldn't have poked the bear with the whole "Whoop That Trick" promise. Forget the embarrassing loss and complete humiliation in Memphis, though, because the Warriors aren't just going to roll over with the way that went down. Good for the Grizzlies taking full advantage of the situation at home, but let's not forget Golden State did still whoop them by 30 in Game 3.
The issue for the Warriors in this series has been their slow starts, with the Grizzlies winning every single first quarter so far in this series, outscoring Golden State on average 31-24.6. Golden State has also shot just 23.4 percent from deep in the first quarter while Memphis comes in at over 42 percent.
That's a serious trend that's worth a play, taking a Grizzlies moneyline bet for the first quarter, but with Golden State back on their home court and a chance to close out, it will remember how Game 5 ended and likely take the series in six when it's all said and done.
Top Player Prop: Jaren Jackson Jr. OVER 18.5 points (+100) on DraftKings. Jackson had 21 in the Grizzlies' complete domination of the Warriors in Game 5, and he likely would've had a ton more points had he not played just 25 minutes. He's averaging 20.4 points per game in the series, having gone over this total three times, including 33 in the series opener. With Ja Morant (right knee) likely out for the rest of the series, Jackson has a chance to continue to add to these numbers, taking on a much bigger role with Morant sidelined.
BetQL Staff Pick: Total OVER 220. BetQL is listing this as the best bet, and I definitely agree. Not only did Memphis just show that they can explode offensively without Ja Morant in Game 5 when it scored 134 points, but this Warriors team has also not been playing up to their offensive potential over the past few games. They’ve been uncharacteristically sloppy and have simply not converted the opportunities we’re used to them making. The volume has been there but just not the results. I expect Memphis’ offense to continue to operate with its back against the wall, but Golden State is always a major threat for a huge output in the points column. Three of the five games in this series have gone OVER 220 points, and I expect that to happen again in Game 6. – Dan Karpuc
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