AccuScore’s computer simulates games 10,000 times to predict their outcome. Throughout the basketball season, we’ll be stacking up these forecasts against Las Vegas money-lines and spreads. When AccuScore gives a team a better chance to win than the money-line odds imply or suggest a high chance of covering the spread, it’s a recommended play.
After winning 16 games in a row, Golden State’s streak finally ended Tuesday night in Memphis. The Warriors look to start a new streak Thursday night when they host the Thunder, winners of their last seven.
AccuScore has the Warriors as heavy 73.6 percent favorites to win, which would warrant money-line odds of nearly -280. Multiple Las Vegas books are offering Golden State at -150. While that price looks to be a bargain, many gamblers are averse to laying a number that big.
So let’s look at the point spread and total….
The average score after 10,000-plus simulations is 104-97. There is a 65.4 percent chance Golden State covers a -3 spread. The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games at home.
AccuScore Best Bet: There is a 64.7 percent chance the total combined score stays UNDER 210, a 4-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. The total has stayed UNDER in four of Golden State's last five games.
Keep an Eye Out: While both teams have very similar simulated box scores, the Warriors average about four more steals than do the Thunder. A few steals leading to easy points at the other end can be huge momentum shifters, especially at home.
Projected Leaders
Kevin Durant: 21 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, 3 TOs
Stephen Curry: 19 points (3-6 3PM), 7 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, 3 TOs
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