By advancing to their first NBA Finals, the Raptors have removed themselves from one of the league’s more dubious lists: Franchises that have never reached the Finals.
Toronto’s arrival in the promised land now leaves six franchises that have yet to play in a Finals series: the Clippers, Grizzlies, Hornets, Nuggets, Pelicans and Timberwolves.
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Where’s Sacramento? True, the Kings have never advanced past the Western Conference finals. But when they were based in Rochester, N.Y., in 1951, they won the title. Long ago as it was, they still proudly display the championship banner won by their ancestors. So we’re not putting them among the six.
The same goes for Atlanta, which hasn’t been out of the second round of the playoffs in close to 60 years. But the Hawks’ franchise dates back to their days in St. Louis, when they were the West’s powerhouse in the late 1950s and early 1960s before the Lakers rose to prominence. St. Louis won it all in 1958 and reached the Finals three other times between 1957 and 1961, only to lose all three to the Celtics. So they’re not on the list of six.
The Raptors are glad they’re off it, becoming the first franchise to make the big Finals breakthrough since LeBron James led Cleveland to its first NBA Finals appearance in 2007. So that leaves the Clippers, Grizzlies, Hornets, Nuggets, Pelicans and Timberwolves with the one gaping hole on their respective organizational resumes that the Raptors managed to close, thanks largely to Kawhi Leonard’s arrival.
Which of the six has the best chance to make the jump to the Finals in the near future? We polled some NBA execs to get their input, with all considering the owner, the basketball executive in charge of personnel moves, the coach and the roster, including projected cap space and additional assets like future draft picks.
Then we ranked the teams, from top to bottom, in terms of who is seen as having the best chance, down to who’s got no shot. Here are the results...
1. Nuggets
By getting to within one win of a trip to the Western Conference finals, and having a player in Nikola Jokic who showed the stuff of a superstar in his first trip to the playoffs, the Nuggets edged out the Clippers for the top spot.
The Nuggets have only two trips to the West finals in their history (1985 and 2009), but Jokic’s emergence is seen as the key to getting this franchise to its first NBA Finals in a few short years. A lot, obviously, also depends on what happens with the Warriors. But Denver is looked as anything but a one-year wonder.
"Of the six," said one GM, "they’re the furthest along. And Jokic has to be considered a top-10 player right now and future MVP candidate."
How the Nuggets break down:
Owner: Stan Kroenke has his son, Josh, overseeing the operation. He’s been involved for a while now, helping to handle the Carmelo Anthony trade negotiations with the Knicks in 2011. The Kroenkes have shown a willingness to spend money on players’ salaries. Unlike other owners in the Group of Six, they are not seen as impediments to getting to the Finals.
Front office: The Nuggets recently prevented team president Tim Connelly from returning home to the Washington area to become the top executive for the Wizards. Connelly drafted Jokic with the 41st pick of the 2014 NBA Draft. He also got another potential cornerstone player, Jamal Murray, with the seventh pick of the 2016 draft. You can’t talk about the Nuggets’ drafting without mentioning general manager Arturas Karnisovas, who has played a prominent role in helping to put together the roster.
Overall, the Nuggets are seen as having a very solid front office, even though the team has chosen not to have a G League team, along with the Portland, that could aid in the development of players. Toronto’s rise to an NBA Finals team is partly due to the G League, where Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and Norman Powell started out. They are unprecedented successes in terms of G League impact.
Coach: Mike Malone piloted his first playoff team, only to lose Game 7 at home to a more experienced Portland team with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Known for his intensity, Malone has few detractors.
"But can he coach a championship team?" one exec said. "That’s an unknown right now."
Roster: Jokic is universally praised, while Murray still has some detractors. With Gary Harris, Will Barton and Michael Porter Jr., who missed his rookie season with a back injury, the Nuggets have several good young players who may be packaged to bring back a star.
In some circles, they’re seen as the dark-horse team if the Pelicans trade Anthony Davis. Cap-wise, they don’t get relief for another two summers, and Murray will command big bucks for the start of the 2020-21 season.
2. Clippers
The Clippers are No. 2 now, but they could take over the No. 1 slot when July 1 rolls around. If they’re able to find a suitor for Danilo Gallinari, they’re seen as having enough cap space for two max-level superstars. And in their case, they have a stable organization to attract Leonard and one other difference-maker. Eat your heart out, Lakers.
Owner: Steve Ballmer has a major presence at games and is often in the news for his business prowess. According to Forbes, he’s the richest owner of an American sports team, with his net worth estimated to be $41.2 billion. The good news is, he’s hands off when it comes to the Clippers’ basketball decisions and willing to go deep into his pockets.
Front office: When it comes to the best and worst of NBA front offices, Los Angeles has the winners and the losers. Despite their history — they’ve been in operation since their days in Buffalo in the early 1970s and have yet to win a second-round series — the Clippers now have what’s considered one of the top front offices in all of basketball.
Team president Lawrence Frank, GM Michael Winger and assistant GM Trent Redden have masterfully transitioned this team from the days of Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan to one of the most attractive destinations for the elite free agents. It also doesn’t hurt to have legendary executive Jerry West on hand to help recruit, as he did with Kevin Durant when he previously worked for Golden State.
Coach: Doc Rivers comes off one of his best years as a coach, when he directed the Clippers to an eighth-place finish when they weren’t expected to make the playoffs entering the season. The fact he’s got a championship with the Celtics is seen as a big plus when the Clippers recruit Leonard.
There has been speculation that Durant will consider the Clippers. A lot has changed since he met with them in 2016, and all for the better.
Roster: The Clippers ended the season, taking the Warriors to six games, with super reserves Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell leading them in scoring. They have good young pieces in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jerome Robinson and Ivica Zubac. All they need is a superstar or two, and they will be on their way, perhaps to their first Finals.
3. Pelicans
Like the Clippers, the Pelicans have also never been as far as the conference finals, let alone the NBA Finals, and they’re coming off season from hell, when they missed the playoffs amid the AD mess.
New team president David Griffin will try to sell the team’s franchise player on staying to pair with Zion Williamson, the consensus choice at No. 1 in this year's draft. But Davis is said to be sticking to his stance of wanting out, with his preferred destination remaining the Lakers. Davis’ most successful season was when he took the Pels to the second round in 2018.
Owner: Gayle Benson has deep pockets — she also owns the NFL's Saints — but is said to be focused more on her football team. The Benson family has never been scared of paying their basketball players, sometimes approving what turned out to be bad contracts. But at least they’re willing to spend.
Mickey Loomis, executive VP of the Saints, once had considerable power in the Pelicans’ operations. He was the one who fired coach Monty Williams after the team made the playoffs in 2015 and lost in the first round, one of only two trips to the postseason in the Davis Era. But Loomis now has yielded powers to Griffin.
Front office: Griffin recently replaced Dell Demps, and that is seen league-wide as a significant upgrade. Over the last year, Griffin turned down a few jobs, including the Knicks and Sixers, before he accepted the Pelicans’ post with the understanding that he’s in full control.
That was something both New York and Philly weren’t willing to give him, despite his success in Cleveland, where he assembled the Cavaliers’ championship team in 2016.
"David runs the entire show," one Western Conference exec said. "He doesn’t have anyone telling him what to do."
He’s got big decisions, starting with getting the best deal for Davis.
Coach: Griffin goes back a long way with coach Alvin Gentry, when both were with the Suns in the mid-2000s. So it wasn’t a surprise when Griffin decided to keep Gentry, who was the Suns coach when they went to the conference finals in 2010.
"Is Alvin a championship-level coach? You wouldn’t say that," one rival GM said. "But that’s not a priority now. Getting the most for Davis is."
Roster: The Pelicans are expected to get a haul for Davis, with Boston seen as the favorites because the Celtics can offer Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, other players and attractive draft picks. Griffin will have other suitors to drive up the price, with the Lakers, Knicks and other teams expected to make offers for a three-time All-NBA player who is still only 26.
In terms of getting to a Finals, though, the additions might not be able to get the Pelicans into the title hunt for a few years in the cut-throat West.
4. Timberwolves
You want to see championship-level basketball in Minneapolis? Unfortunately, you missed it. The window closed way back in 1960 when the Lakers left town.
The Timberwolves arrived in 1989-90 and have only one Western Conference finals berth to show for it. They come off another lottery season — their 14th in the last 15 years — and just getting back to the playoffs is looking like a long shot.
Owner: Glen Taylor decided to blow it up and start all over when he fired team president and head coach Tom Thibodeau 40 games into last season. Only nine months earlier, Thibodeau was on the path to success, taking the Wolves to their first playoffs since 2004. But then the Jimmy Butler saga led to a major trade and Thibodeau’s demise.
The question is often asked by league executives: How much does Taylor really want to win? With his latest house-cleaning, he’s putting his faith in two rookies to turn the team around.
Front office: The executive now in charge is Gersson Rosas, who worked for 18 years in Houston and was No. 2 in command to Daryl Morey. Rosas also had a three-month stint as GM in Dallas in 2013, reporting to Donn Nelson, so he’s never been in charge of a front office.
He’ll find out that, sometimes, the person in his chair has to go along with Taylor’s demands. Thibodeau found that out in October 2017 when Taylor decided to extend Andrew Wiggins to the tune of nearly $150 million over five years.
Coach: Taylor was a huge fan of Flip Saunders, the late coach who led the Wolves to their greatest success, a berth in the 2004 West finals. So it wasn’t much of a surprise when Taylor replaced Thibodeau on the bench with Ryan Saunders as the interim. The change didn’t work, with Saunders going only 17-25 and finishing in 11th in the West.
No matter, though. Saunders, 33, got the job on a full-time basis and is now the youngest head coach in the NBA.
Roster: Boy do these guys miss Kevin Garnett, the 2004 MVP who was all about working and winning.
With 11 losing seasons in their last 12 after Garnett’s trade to Boston, people are also starting to wonder if Karl-Anthony Towns is one of these talented stars who can put up big scoring numbers but doesn’t impact winning as much as everyone expects. Wiggins has been a major disappointment, especially for the money he’s making.
The good news: Jeff Teague’s remaining money ($19 million) finally comes off the books in 2020.
5. Grizzlies
With Toronto finally making the Finals, in their 24th season, it’s worth noting that the other team the NBA put in Canada at the same time, in Vancouver, lasted only six seasons before moving to Memphis. Since arriving, the Grizzlies have been to one West finals, in 2013.
After winning only 55 games the last two seasons combined, owner Robert Pera made sweeping changes in April, demoting longtime GM Chris Wallace to a scouting role, firing coach J.B. Bickerstaff and putting his faith in the hands of 30-year-old Zach Kleiman, who has never run an NBA team and is younger than Mike Conley.
Owner: Pera has been owner since 2012 and has largely been absent during his tenure. His execution of the latest change in the front office and with his coach was clumsy, at best. Bickerstaff was allowed to do player-exit interviews, then was told he was fired.
"What’s Pera done to make fans in Memphis think he’s going to bring them a winner?" asked one GM.
Front office: In only four years in the NBA, Kleiman was an assistant GM and the Grizz’s team counsel. Sometimes, age doesn’t matter. Oklahoma City’s Sam Presti was 30 when he was hired.
To help with Kleiman’s development, the Grizzlies have brought in ex-NBA execs Rich Cho and Glenn Grunwald. They’ve got find a coach and also continue to look for trading partners for Conley, with two years and $67 million left on his deal.
Coach: During Pera’s tenure he’s had Lionel Hollins, Dave Joerger, David Fizdale and Bickerstaff. So now he’ll be hiring his fifth head coach since 2013. The top NBA franchises don’t have this kind of revolving door.
Whomever takes over, the roster isn’t nearly as good as the old grit-and-grind Grizzlies, headed by Conley, Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Tony Allen.
Roster: The Grizz are still paying for some past drafting mistakes. In 2009, they had the No. 2 overall pick and could have had James Harden, Stephen Curry or DeMar DeRozan. But looking for defensive help, Wallace passed over those three and went with Hasheem Thabeet, a big man who flamed out after a season-and-a-half and had only 20 career starts.
Kleiman is expected to try to move Conley and continue to build around Jaren Jackson, Jr., who showed some star potential as a rookie but played only 58 games due to injuries. This is not one of the NBA’s preferred destinations for free agents, so they’ve got to hit on trades and the draft.
The Grizzlies’ good luck in the lottery should get them Ja Morant with the No. 2 pick overall. The former Murray State star is viewed by many scouts and execs as a future NBA star who will mesh well with Jackson.
6. Hornets
Well, we know Michael Jordan isn’t the GOAT when it comes to NBA owners. So that’s a debate you’ll never hear. Jordan has built himself a mediocre lottery team as he heads into his 15th season in Charlotte, with the last nine as the majority owner. In that time, Jordan’s teams have only two winning seasons and two playoff berths ending in first-round exits.
With some bad signings and poor drafts, it’s no wonder that Charlotte is still looking for its first trip to an East finals. Between ownership, the front office, coach and roster, the Hornets are at the bottom of the heap when it comes to ranking which of the six teams without a Finals berth breaks through to make its first championship series appearance.
Owner: His win-loss record as an owner certainly doesn’t measure up to Jordan’s lofty standards when he led the Bulls to six titles in the 1990s. But he’s made a ton of money in recent seasons, after buying the Hornets for a paltry $175 million. This season, Forbes valued the Hornets at $1.25 billion.
But Hornets fans want to see a playoff team. On that front, Jordan talks a good game. At this past season’s All-Star weekend, he reiterated his commitment to bringing Charlotte a winner.
Front office: Mitch Kupchak just finished out his first season as GM, and things seem to be quiet on the front-office front. But there are rumors that Jordan is looking at bringing in the Sixers’ VP of player personnel, Marc Eversely, in some capacity. That is worth keeping an eye on.
Coach: Kupchak’s first move was firing Steve Clifford, who wound up with the Magic and helped get them to the No. 7 seed in the East.
In his first NBA head-coaching job, James Borrego had the team competitive for the final playoff berth. But they fell short with a disappointing 39-win season, when all it took the Nets to get to the No. 6 seed was 42 wins.
Roster: The big decision involves Kemba Walker, who made an All-NBA team for the first time, qualifying for a max deal that could put the Hornets on the hook for $221 million for five years if they want to re-sign their best player on July 1.
If he wants to join the Lakers or Knicks, two teams that would love to have his services, he’ll be leaving $80 million on the table (if Charlotte offers the full max). He’s eligible for a deal worth $141 million over four years. Some GMs say he’s not worth the full max, but that means the Hornets are in for a big rebuild if he walks.
"It’s like, what do you do?" one exec said. "He’s not good enough to tie up a lot of your future cap space with, but if he goes, you have a roster that is just not very good."
The Hornets have a recent history of overpaying free agents (Nic Batum) and other players (Bismack Biyombo and Cody Zeller). None of their recent draft picks even remotely look like future stars.
Listen to Mitch Lawrence on SiriusXM NBA Radio on The Starting Lineup, No Look Pass, NBA Today and NBA Weekend. Follow him on Twitter: @Mitch_Lawrence.
