Team USA vs Lithuania prediction, odds and best prop bets for 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup

Stephen Noh

Team USA vs Lithuania prediction, odds and best prop bets for 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup image

Team USA is one of four teams still sporting a perfect 4-0 record in the FIBA Basketball World Cup. Lithuania is also part of that group, led by Pelicans center Jonas Valanciunas. That should make Sunday's matchup between the two teams a great game.

Team USA hasn't been challenged much thus far, winning by an average margin of 28.8 points. Lithuania has been running over the competition too, winning by 25.3 points per game. 

Team USA vs Lithuania odds

Team USA opened as a 17.5-point favorite heading into the second-round game against Lithuania before setting in at 16.5 points.

You can take a look at the spread, over/under and moneyline for Team USA vs Lithuania below, courtesy of BetMGM:

Team Spread Total Points Moneyline
Team USA -16.5 (-120) o177.5 (-110) -2500
Lithuania +16.5 (+100) u177.5 (-110) +1000

Best props for Team USA vs. Lithuania

Jonas Valanciunas over 9.5 rebounds (-120)

Valanciunas is averaging 14 points and 9.8 rebounds per game for Lithuania and will be a problem. He has long been one of the best offensive rebounders in the NBA.

Team USA coach Steve Kerr has been using smaller backup centers in Paolo Banchero and Bobby Portis. Valanciunas should feast against them. 

Jaren Jackson Jr. under 3.5 rebounds (+140)

Predicting that a starting center will grab less than 3.5 rebounds might seem a little nutty, but Jackson Jr. is not a great rebounder. He's averaged only 3.3 rebounds for this tournament and grabbed zero against Montenegro on Friday.

Jackson Jr. has never been a great rebounder, even in the NBA. He plays with one of the best box out guys in the league in Steven Adams, yet only averaged 6.8 rebounds per game for the Grizzlies last year. 

Steve Kerr may have to go to Walker Kessler if Valanciunas is causing too much trouble, limiting Jackson's minutes. Jackson is foul-prone too, and that could be an issue. 

Team USA vs Lithuania prediction

Our pick: Lithuania +16.5

Team USA has had its fair share of blowouts in this tournament. But they showed against Montenegro that they do have a particular Achilles' heel when it comes to teams with size.

Montenegro's 23 offensive rebounds kept them in the game. Nikola Vucevic feasted with 18 points and 16 rebounds. 

Valanciunas is much more physical than Vucevic. He's averaging 14 points and 9.8 rebounds per game for Lithuania and presents a lot of matchup problems. Lithuania has another former NBA big man too in the 7'0" Donatas Motiejunas. He's been a good rebounder for this tournament in limited minutes. 

This Lithuania team blew Montenegro out by 20 points in their second game of the tournament. Team USA is coming off beating Montenegro by only 12, failing to cover the 25.5 point spread. 

Team USA should prevail, but it is tough to see them covering a big 16.5 point spread against a very good Lithuanian team that has the size to give them trouble. 

MORE: Which countries have been eliminated from the FIBA World Cup?

Where to watch Team USA vs Lithuania

  • Date: Sunday, Sep. 3
  • Time: 8:40 a.m. ET | 5:40 a.m. PT
  • TV channel: ESPN2
  • Live stream: Sling TVCourtside 1891

Team USA vs Lithuania will air on ESPN2 in the United States. Viewers can also stream the game via Sling TV or catch a replay on Courtside 1891.

Fans in the U.S. can watch the FIBA Basketball World Cup on Sling TV, which is now offering half off your first month! You can stream the sports you love starting at just $20 in your first month with Sling Orange, which includes ESPN2.

Courtside 1891 offers two subscriptions. Courtside 1891 Plus is free and gives you access to "extended highlights and a curated feed for your favorite teams and competition." Courtside 1891 Max is a paid subscription that allows you to watch "live game streams and full game replays."

If you just want to watch the FIBA Basketball World Cup, you can buy a pass for the entire tournament for $9.99. An annual pass, which includes the FIBA Basketball World Cup and other international competitions, costs $44.99. Use code TSN10WC to receive a 10 percent discount.

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Stephen Noh

Stephen Noh Photo

Stephen Noh started writing about the NBA as one of the first members of The Athletic in 2016. He covered the Chicago Bulls, both through big outlets and independent newsletters, for six years before joining The Sporting News in 2022. Stephen is also an avid poker player and wrote for PokerNews while covering the World Series of Poker from 2006-2008.