After a remarkable offseason in 2015, the Spurs’ biggest questions for 2016 are out of their control. Both Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili could retire, and the team would not have a ton of flexibility to replace them beyond what they already have.
The Spurs are the Spurs, however. They brought in LaMarcus Aldridge and David West while locking up Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green to long-term deals last summer, and they cannot be discounted again this year. Still, the challenges for coach and president Gregg Popovich and general manager R.C. Buford grow.
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Let’s take a look at their free agents, salary cap space and assets for this summer before breaking down what needs to be done.
Potential free agents: Tim Duncan ($5.6m player option), Manu Ginobili ($2.9m player option), David West ($1.6m player option), Boban Marjanovic (Restricted), Boris Diaw (partially guaranteed), Jonathon Simmons (non-guaranteed), Matt Bonner (Unrestricted), Ray McCallum (Restricted) and Rasual Butler (Unrestricted)
Likely cap space: None.
Realistic maximum cap space (using $92 million estimate): $13 million.
2016 NBA Draft assets: their own first round pick, no second round pick (traded to Sacramento).
As a practical matter, the Spurs’ near term starts and ends with Duncan and Ginobili. Both have done remarkably well when they have been on the court this season and replacing them would be challenging with limited salary flexibility.
One benefit the Spurs have with those two is that they maintain full Bird rights, meaning either could decline his player option and sign for a larger amount without the team having to use cap space or another exception. While far from the only consideration — both players will be considering retirement, and Ginobili in particular seemed ready for it last offseason — that flexibility could help retain one or both for another season. Considering the Spurs are unlikely to have functional cap space anyway and should be under the luxury tax line, spending more on Duncan and Ginobili makes a ton of sense if necessary.
Their next biggest decisions are very different. Boban Marjanovic shocked the league as an early contributing backup center, while David West famously took a massive pay cut to join San Antonio. West probably will opt out of his second season, but the Spurs only have non-Bird rights on him, meaning they cannot offer him a substantial raise without dipping into cap space or another exception.
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The Spurs have match rights on Marjanovic, and he is subject to the Gilbert Arenas provision, meaning another team cannot offer him a contract paying more than the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception for the first two seasons. Keep an eye out for a team to make a play on 7-3 center, both to make the Spurs sweat a little and to add a capable contributor if San Antonio does not match. Since Boban’s first NBA contract was only for one season, the Spurs just have non-Bird rights on him and would have to use either cap space (which they are unlikely to have) or their MLE to retain him. This could lead to a choice between West and Marjanovic depending on what they are offered.
Outside of those big decisions, San Antonio’s summer is somewhat standard for an elite team. They will need to decide on veteran free agents like Bonner and Butler as well as third-string point guard Ray McCallum. Signing summer league standout Jonathon Simmons to a non-guaranteed second season at his minimum looks like a stroke of genius because he will be a cheap rotation player for them in 2016-17.
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The Spurs also have the rights to two recent first-round picks: French forward Livio Jean-Charles, whom they drafted in 2013, and Serbian big man Nikola Milutinov, chosen last year. With the Aldridge cap drama out of the way, the Spurs could bring one or both over if desired. San Antonio also has their own first round pick this season and will always be a logical destination for minimum salary players to fill out the rotation.
San Antonio, then, must wait on Duncan and Ginobili. The team does not have enough cap space to replace the aging stars with equal talent, meaning the rest of the roster probably will not change much either way. The two career Spurs are closer to their Hall of Fame inductions than their primes, but their returns would be more than welcome.