The five teams of the Central Division did not make the kinds of high-profile signings and massive free agency expenditures to dominate headlines this summer. However, they did spend, and, in doing so, they largely locked up their future options.
The Central illustrates the importance of timing and structural constraints when it comes to free agency. The NBA champion Cavaliers are capped out for completely logical reasons while the Pistons utilized their last bit of flexibility before giving Andre Drummond his deserved max contract. Milwaukee could have retained a small pool of money for 2017 by waiting to extend Giannis Antetokounmpo, but they made the right decision taking the plunge now, especially since he gave them a discount.
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The Bulls and Pacers could become factors in the 2017 market, but both face major decisions with their own free agents that will shape their summers. Hometown returns for Dwyane Wade and Jeff Teague make their negotiations even more complicated, especially since both will have only spent one year on their new teams before hitting the open market.
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Projecting ahead to the summer can give us a better grasp of what NBA teams will hope to accomplish during the season. Let’s take a look at where these teams will stand in six months, with numbers based on the current $102 million salary cap estimates.
Chicago Bulls
Likely 2017 cap space: $12.8 million.
Realistic maximum 2017 cap space: $41.3 million.
Key potential free agents: Dwyane Wade ($23.8 million player option), Nikola Mirotic (restricted), Rajon Rondo (partial guarantee), Taj Gibson (unrestricted), Tony Snell (restricted), Cristiano Felicio (restricted).
After years of fiscal restraint and valuing cap space, the Bulls are now largely at the mercy of native son Wade. If he picks up that lucrative player option, Chicago would not have a max slot available despite Jimmy Butler’s cheap contract and Rajon Rondo only having a partial guarantee. Should Wade opt out, the Bulls could either let him go and pursue other free agents or come to a separate agreement, presumably for less than his substantial cap hold.
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They also have to contend with restricted free agency for Mirotic, Snell and Felicio, who all have uncertain value at present. Spending available space and then using those free agents’ low cap holds could lock in the Bulls’ core and also facilitate extension negotiations with Doug McDermott.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Likely 2017 cap space: none.
Realistic maximum 2017 cap space: none.
Key potential free agents: JR Smith (?), Mike Dunleavy (partial guarantee), Mo Williams (unrestricted), James Jones (unrestricted).
On the surface, no team has a more straightforward summer than the Champs. With LeBron agreeing to a two-year deal, all of Cleveland’s key contributors will be under contract with JR Smith standing as the only uncertain piece at the moment. Even bench pieces such as Channing Frye and Richard Jefferson are locked up for 2017-18.
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The Cavs have to use the Anderson Varejao trade exception by the February trade deadline so their only significant tools for adding new talent will be the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, first round pick and minimum contracts, barring some massive changes in the new collective bargaining agreement. If the Cavaliers decide to make larger changes, they could make trades. Cap space, however, appears off the table.
Detroit Pistons
Likely 2017 cap space: none.
Realistic maximum 2017 cap space: none.
Key potential free agents: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (restricted), Aron Baynes ($6.5 million player option).
Locking up Andre Drummond while also bringing in Jon Leuer and Boban Marjanovic took Detroit out of free agency in 2017. Even if Bayes declines his player option, the Pistons will be over the salary cap, and a new deal for talented guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope now or then could put them close to the luxury tax.
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The Pistons will need to make good use of their Mid-Level Exception, their first-round pick and likely the Bi-Annual Exception to add even more depth to their talented roster.
Indiana Pacers
Likely 2017 cap space: $19.6 million.
Realistic maximum 2017 cap space: $37.7 million.
Key potential free agents: Jeff Teague (unrestricted), CJ Miles ($4.8 million player option), Rodney Stuckey ($7 million player option), Lavoy Allen ($4 million player option).
Amazingly, 2017 will be the last summer before Paul George becomes a free agent again and that could affect Indiana’s plans. Newly acquired point guard Teague will be an unrestricted free agent but also has a cap hold of $12 million that is likely lower than his next starting salary. If George is interested, the Pacers could use some (or close to all, realistically) of their cap space giving him a renegotiation and extension that would raise his 2017-18 salary from $19.5 million and add a year or more to the agreement.
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Considering how hard it can be to get elite players, that would be a reasonable use of cap space should their All-Star have an interest in doing what James Harden and Russell Westbrook did this summer. If that does not happen, the Pacers will have enough money to add a starting-caliber player on top of their current starting five assuming Teague returns. That would be a useful infusion of talent and hopefully youth at a pivotal time for the franchise.
Milwaukee Bucks
Likely 2017 cap space: none.
Realistic maximum 2017 cap space: none.
Key potential free agents: Greg Monroe ($17.9 million Player Option) and Michael Carter-Williams (restricted).
Agreeing to an extension with Giannis Antetokounmpo effectively takes the Bucks out of the free agent market in 2017 and fundamentally changes the way they approach both Monroe and Carter-Williams. Before adding Matthew Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic while also inking Miles Plumlee to a lucrative new deal, it looked like Milwaukee could have a pool of money to spend even before they re-signed Antetokounmpo. Now, Monroe picking up his $17.9 million player option does not have as large an effect.
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This summer’s spending affects Michael Carter-Williams differently because it makes agreeing to an extension this fall more reasonable but also gives the Bucks leverage if they want to wait and hope his market in restricted free agency stalls as happened with Dion Waiters and Donatas Motiejunas this summer. Something else to watch for Milwaukee is the luxury tax. Giannis ha agreed to his substantial raise and 2017 will also be one year away from a new contract and raise for Jabari Parker so Milwaukee may be more judicious to make sure they can afford to pay their young talent as they approach their primes.