Back in 2017, Rockets general manager Daryl Morey made news when he told SiriusXM NBA Radio, "we absolutely figured the only way we’re gonna beat [the Warriors] is with a barrage of 3-pointers."
The comment was unique. For starters, it shed light on Houston’s in-game strategy against Golden State, an anomaly in the sports world where secrecy often reigns supreme.
It was also a noteworthy admission of vulnerability. The Rockets were prepared to engage in a higher-variance strategy because they knew they couldn’t compete against Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Co. on talent alone.
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The additions of Chris Paul, P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute last offseason changed the calculus for Houston. The Rockets still hoisted a plethora of 3-pointers, to be sure. They attempted 46.7 percent of their shots from behind the arc last season, per Cleaning the Glass. It was by far the most in the NBA.
But they also added the ability to defend Golden State as well as anyone in the league. Houston jumped from an average defense in 2016-17 to the sixth-best last season. The Rockets' ability to switch forced opponents onto a different playing field and out of their comfort zones. Free-flowing offenses defaulted to isolations instead, for example.
In the playoffs, Houston’s combination of 3-point acumen and defensive versatility propelled the Rockets to a 3-2 lead over the Warriors in the Western Conference finals before the variance turned ugly. An injury to Chris Paul and a jaw-dropping 0-for-27 performance from 3-point range in Game 7 sent the Rockets packing.
The closeness of the defeat and the pending free agencies for several of the team’s most important players — Paul, Mbah a Moute, Trevor Ariza and restricted free agent Clint Capela — meant the summer of 2018 would be an important one for Houston.
Paul re-signed quickly to a four-year, $160 million maximum deal. It’s a contract that given Paul’s age — he turned 33 in May — will likely look rough in its last few seasons, but it was also a necessity given Houston’s championship aspirations. Those windows don’t always stay open for very long.
Meanwhile, Capela’s restricted free agency process was drawn out. The Mavericks’ decision to lock up DeAndre Jordan for the year significantly limited Capela’s options for large offer sheets outside of Houston. The 24-year-old is arguably in his perfect situation with the Rockets, which makes the five-year, $90 million deal he signed in late July appear to be a bargain for the franchise.
While Paul and Capela where Houston’s biggest offseason signings, it was the action on the margins that may define the team’s championship potential. Both Ariza and Mbah a Moute are gone. The former took a one-year deal with Phoenix, the latter a one-year deal with the Clippers. Re-signing either player would have meant a significant luxury tax hit, but if there’s a time to pay, it would seemingly be now.
James Ennis enters as one replacement. The 6-7 journeyman has historically shot about as well from behind the 3-point arc as Ariza, but never with the same level of volume. In Houston, he’ll be asked to spot up and fire at will. As a defender, it’s hard to imagine Ennis being anywhere near as good.
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The other replacement is an odd one. The coup de grace to Houston’s offseason came when Carmelo Anthony signed a one-year, $2.4 million deal after being bought out by the Hawks.
In most situations, Anthony’s signing would be a non-issue. He’d be a fine replacement player for a fine price — but Houston isn’t most situations. The Rockets are coming off a near series win over the Warriors and continue to chase a championship. That demands added scrutiny. Houston gets graded on a stricter curve.
Anthony is coming off, according to many measures, by far the worst season of his career. He’s in no position to demand a high-usage role on offense nor, realistically, a starting spot. Yet, he’ll be allowed to compete for one in the lead-up to the season, and his exit interview in Oklahoma City certainly made it sound like he wasn’t up for coming off the bench.
His -3.8 Box Plus/Minus last season was on par with the likes of the oft-maligned Nick Young. Anthony delivered his least efficient scoring season, posting a 50.3 true shooting percentage thanks to career lows in 2-point percentage and free throw percentage. He saw a precipitous decline in his ability to get to the rim and drew significantly fewer fouls.
It wasn’t all bad for Anthony. He took a career-high percentage of his shot attempts from behind the 3-point arc and connected at a 35.7 percent clip. If he’s willing to embrace that modernization of his game, he’ll fit in well in Houston’s 3-point happy offensive scheme.
On the defensive end, though, Anthony’s age showed, as he was frequently targeted by opposing offenses because of his inability to stay in front of his man. His -1.9 Defensive Box Plus/Minus number was the fourth-worst of his career. Two of his other three worst defensive seasons have come since turning 30. There’s no turning back the clock.
Swapping Ariza and Mbah a Moute for Ennis and Anthony will almost certainly have a negative impact on the Rockets’ defensive effectiveness, particularly against Golden State. The Warriors posted a 111.1 offensive rating against Houston in the playoffs, per Cleaning the Glass, well above the Rockets’ regular season defensive allowance. If the two teams meet again this coming season, the number will likely be higher.
Morey has earned the benefit of the doubt over his years in charge, but all of this likely means Houston will return to embracing the same variance he talked about in 2017 against the Warriors once again.
The Rockets no longer possess the same defensive versatility that slowed down Golden State in the playoffs. As such, they’ll be forced to seek out a much more tightly-contested affair buttressed by another barrage of 3-pointers. As Game 7 showed, that doesn’t always work out so well.
All statistics from Basketball-Reference unless otherwise noted.