A year ago, the Rockets made the Western Conference finals as the No. 2 seed. Now they could be looking at wholesale changes in a pivotal offseason.
Dwight Howard likely will hit unrestricted free agency for the second time in his career, and two of the Rockets’ other big men will be restricted free agents. These decisions and others centered on how to build around James Harden will make this summer fascinating for one of the NBA’s most active and unique front offices.
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Let’s take a look at their free agents, salary cap space and assets for this summer before breaking down what needs to be done.
Potential free agents: Dwight Howard ($23 million player option), Donatas Motiejunas (restricted), Terrence Jones (restricted), Josh Smith (unrestricted) and Jason Terry (unrestricted).
Likely cap space: None.
Maximum cap space (using $92 million estimate): $44.2 million
2016 NBA Draft assets: No. 37 and No. 43. (Their first-round pick, No. 15, is owned by the Nuggets.)
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Houston’s offseason can be thought of as different segments that occur at largely the same time.
The first big piece is Howard. The 30-year-old big man likely will decline his lucrative player option even if he might take a small financial hit next season in favor of the security of a long-term contract in a market flush with cash. It seems unlikely the Rockets would look to bring him back after clashes with Harden and the large long-term committment likely necessary, but opting out would only make it more difficult because it would increase his salary cap spot from $23 million to his maximum salary, likely around $30 million.
Fortunately for Houston, they have a potential replacement on the team already in Clint Capela, a 22-year-old who impressed in his second NBA season. Howard returning would make this Rockets offseason simple; they would have very few options with his salary on the books. However, that ship may have sailed already.
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Major decision No. 2 features Houston’s restricted free agents. The team started the season with high hopes for big men Motiejunas and Jones but injuries and poor performance have changed each’s value and place in the Rockets’ long-term plans. Houston is fortunate both have low cap holds and qualifying offers as later draft picks, which affords the team the flexibility to assess the market more patiently.
The decision with Motiejunas, 25, will be especially compelling because the Rockets traded him at the deadline to the Pistons in a deal Detroit eventually voided because of health concerns. Motiejunas then turned around and finished the season with mixed results, but the injuries have turned him from one of the Rockets’ best young assets to another question mark on a roster full of them.
Jones, 24, has seen his efficiency dip each of the past two seasons while also dealing with major injury issues. However, the Rockets hold match rights on both Motiejunas and Jones so they hold the power in terms of where both play next season. A likely path is that each power forward secures the best offer sheet they can and Houston decides what to do at that point, which also gives the team the entire (shortened) July moratorium to use any cap space since restricted free agents cannot sign before July 7.
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Finally, Houston could be a player on the open market. The Rockets have decent depth, so they could use their cap space on one star if they get the right player. Harden’s ability to run an offense from the shooting guard position and new coach Mike D’Antoni’s tendency to get the most out of role players opens up unique possibilities because that pairing could make stars out of lesser players if the chemistry fits, but expect the Rockets to try to enter the conversations for Kevin Durant and Al Horford, at the least.
One under-the-radar free agent to consider if Houston has cap space is Boban Marjanovic. The Spurs center is subject to the Gilbert Arenas provision like Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik in 2012. Signing Marjanovic to a lucrative offer would put Houston’s strongest Southwest Division competitor in a tough spot, and a Capela/Marjanovic center rotation could be formidable (and very popular on NBA Twitter!) moving forward if it came to fruition.
However, all of this comes in the context of a Rockets season that ended in a disappointing 41-41 record, No. 8 seed in the playoffs and first-round loss to the same team that beat them in last year’s West finals, the Warriors. This offseason could be the time to consider a greater overhaul, such as putting out feelers on Harden’s value on the trade market. Last year’s MVP runner-up has two more seasons under contract and has shown how his presence can transform an offense, so the Rockets could look to deal from a position of great strength with a huge payoff if they make a move.
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Either way, the Rockets must view this offseason as franchise-shaping. They likely will lose one of the NBA’s biggest names and be in position to replace him in a variety of ways. One thing we know: A Rockets offseason is never quiet.