Big issue: For the second straight year, the Rockets were able to hang with the Warriors in a postseason series, but for the second straight year, they were not able to advance. Last year, at least part of the blame for that failure fell to the injury suffered by Chris Paul which kept him out for Games 6 and 7, paving the way for Warriors wins in those games.
This year, the loss to the Warriors stings more because it was Golden State that suffered a key late-series injury — Kevin Durant left Game 5 with a calf strain and didn't play in Game 6 — and the Rockets could not capitalize.
That has to make team president Daryl Morey wonder if his Rockets, designed with beating the Warriors in mind, have seen their window of championship opportunity close.
Of course, the possible dissolution of the Warriors could change that calculus, but as things stand, the Rockets look unlikely to ever get over the Golden State hump, certainly not if the Warriors somehow bring back Durant.
That leads to the wider problem the Rockets face: Chris Paul became old this year. Paul played in only 58 games, his third straight season missing 20 or more games (a hamstring strain was the chief culprit this season), and when he did play, he wasn’t very good.
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Paul averaged a career-low 15.6 points on 41.9 percent shooting, also a career low. He made 3.5 trips per game to the free-throw line, another career low, and his Player Efficiency Rating was 19.7, which was — you guessed it — a career low.
It got worse, too, in the postseason, when Paul struggled badly to make 3-point shots. He started the playoffs 1-for-10 from the arc and only marginally improved from there (27.0 percent overall).
The Rockets are mostly carried by the scoring of perennial MVP candidate James Harden, but they’re a thin team with a top-heavy lineup, and Paul is No. 2 in the pecking order. They’re going to struggle if he can’t carry his weight, which he did not do this year. It’s hard to see that changing now that he is 34.
Remember, too, that Paul was granted a four-year contract by the Rockets last summer worth nearly $160 million, which will pay him up through his 37th birthday. The Rockets are locked into Paul, Harden and center Clint Capela through 2022, and they will account for 85 percent of the team’s cap space next season.
That group has not been good enough to earn a spot in the Finals to date. Their best chances probably have already passed them by.
Free-agent outlook: After the Harden-Paul-Capela core, the Rockets have Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker and Nene under contract for next year. That bunch makes about $120 million, leaving Houston a measly $6 million under the luxury tax.
The team will try to bring back as many of its pieces as possible, because it will be impossible to build a bench with so little wiggle room. Gerald Green, at least, is a good bet to return. But the team will likely bid farewell to in-season pickups Austin Rivers, Kenneth Faried and Iman Shumpert.
Replacing them will be a key. Rockets coach Mike D’Antoni was able to keep things afloat during the season without a consistent reserve unit, but by the end of the year, the Rockets had a scrappy group of bench castoffs on hand.
But trying to bring in free agents to fill out the roster around the team’s two mega-paycheck mega-stars this summer will be a challenge.
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The young folks: There’s really only one young folk of consequence for Houston, 21-year-old forward Isaiah Hartenstein, a second-rounder back in 2017. The Rockets brought Hartenstein on board for his rookie season after he spent last year in the G-League, but after some decent early-season minutes, Hartenstein found himself glued to the bench. He played 20 straight games from late October to early December but played only 50 total minutes after Dec. 1.
He had good G-League numbers (19.5 points, 14.7 rebounds) but struggled from the outside, making only 27.4 percent of his 3-point shots. He’ll need to be a stretch-4 if he wants to get on the floor with this team, so that, among other things, will have to improve for Hartenstein to earn a rotation spot.
As for hopes that a player could be found in the draft, the Rockets don’t have a first-round pick this year.
Wait till next year: The hope in Houston is that the Warriors will lose Klay Thompson and Durant, with Durant moving on to New York. Kawhi Leonard, the hope goes, will stay put in Toronto, and Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker will remain safely lodged in the East.
That makes the Rockets a real contender for a Finals spot and would level the West playing field.
The nightmare scenario, though, would have Durant and Thompson staying in Golden State, with the Lakers adding Irving and Anthony Davis, and the Clippers getting Leonard and, say, Jimmy Butler.
With the Nuggets getting better and the Trail Blazers getting healthy, Houston could quickly go from the Warriors’ top challenger to a ho-hum No. 6 seed, especially if Paul’s apparent decline is ongoing. Harden will still make it a group worth watching, but the possibility of Houston competing for a title might have been wiped out for good with the loss in this series.